표제지

목차

제1장 서론 16

1.1. 연구 배경 16

1.2. 연구 필요성 및 목적 18

1.3. 연구 내용 및 절차 20

제2장 연구 동향 분석 22

2.1. 기후변화 경향성 분석 22

2.1.1. 수문·기상 인자의 경향성 분석 22

2.1.2. 수환경 인자의 경향성 분석 25

2.2. 기후변화 탄성도 분석 27

2.3. 기후변화에 따른 미래 수문기상인자 예측 29

2.3.1. 전지구모형(GCM) 29

2.3.2. 상세화기법 31

2.3.3. 기후변화에 따른 미래 수문기상인자 예측 33

2.4. 기후변화의 수환경 영향 평가 36

2.5. 유역기반 통합수문모형 적용 38

2.6. 환경유량 정의 및 평가 40

제3장 기후변화에 따른 영향 분석기법 45

3.1. 비시나리오기반 영향 분석기법 45

3.1.1. 개요 45

3.1.2. 기후변화 경향성 분석기법 46

3.1.3. 기후변화 탄성도 분석기법 52

3.1.4. 기후변화에 따른 수환경 요소간 영향 메케니즘 분석기법 55

3.2. 시나리오기반 영향 분석기법 58

3.2.1. 개요 58

3.2.2. 국내에 적합한 GCM 시나리오 선정 및 규모내림 60

3.2.3. 낙동강 통합유역모형(Nakdong-SWAT) 구축 및 검보정 75

3.2.4. 낙동강 수질 변동성 분석기법 106

제4장 비시나리오기반 수자원 및 수환경 영향 분석 110

4.1. 기후변화 경향성 분석 110

4.1.1. 분석자료 구축 110

4.1.2. 전국 강우변동 경향성 분석 112

4.1.3. 전국 기온변동 경향성 분석 121

4.1.4. 분석 결과 요약 126

4.2. 기후영향 탄성도 분석 127

4.2.1. 분석자료 구축 127

4.2.2. 전국 하도유역 면적강우량-장기유출량 탄성도 분석 130

4.2.3. 전국 댐유역 면적강우량-댐 유입량 탄성도 분석 132

4.2.4. 낙동강유역 기온-수온 탄성도 분석 134

4.2.5. 낙동강유역 수온-수질(BOD) 탄성도 분석 137

4.2.6. 낙동강 유출-수질(BOD) 탄성도 분석 139

4.2.7. 분석 결과 요약 141

4.3. 기후변화의 우리나라 수자원-수환경 영향 메케니즘 분석 결과 142

제5장 시나리오기반 수자원 및 수환경 영향분석 144

5.1. 기후변화의 낙동강유역 수문요소 민감도 분석 144

5.1.1. 개요 144

5.1.2. 기후변화 시나리오별/수문요소별 민감도 분석 결과 145

5.2. 기후변화의 낙동강 유출 및 유황 영향 분석 154

5.2.1. 연유출, 계절유출 및 월유출 변동 특성분석 154

5.2.2. 일유황 변동 특성분석 167

5.3. 기후변화의 낙동강 수질오염부하량 영향 특성분석 173

5.3.1. 유출에 따른 수질오염부하량 영향분석 173

5.3.2. 유황에 따른 수질오염부하량 영향분석 191

5.4. 기후변화의 환경유량 영향분석 194

제6장 기후변화의 우리나라 수자원 영향평가 및 대응 196

6.1. 개요 196

6.2. 기후변화의 기상수문 요소에의 영향평가 197

6.2.1. 연, 계절 및 월 강우량 영향 197

6.2.2. 유역면적평균강우량 영향 199

6.2.3. 연, 계절 및 월 유출량 영향 204

6.2.4. 일유량 및 유황 영향 209

6.2.5. 하상계수 영향 211

6.2.6. 강우기와 비강우기 변동 영향 212

6.3. 기후변화의 수자원 영향 및 대응 214

6.3.1. 낙동강 수자원부존량 영향 214

6.3.2. 낙동강 홍수 영향 216

6.3.2. 낙동강 가뭄 영향 218

6.3.3. 낙동강 용수공급 영향 220

6.4. 수환경 영향 및 대응 222

제7장 결론 224

참고문헌 226

Abstract 237

표차례

Table 2.3.1. Recent korean researches for GCM and senarios 30

Table 2.3.2. Comparison of dynamic and statistical downscaling methods 32

Table 2.6.1. Definition of environmental flow 40

Table 2.6.2. Environmental flows and ecosystem influences in IHA model 42

Table 3.1.1. Rainfall-runoff elasticity ranges in major climate zones 53

Table 3.2.1. The present of GCM(PCMDI, 2009) 62

Table 3.2.2. Selected GCMs of this study 71

Table 3.2.3. Observation weather stations in this study 76

Table 3.2.4. Physical characteristics of major reservoirs in korea 79

Table 3.2.5. Descriptions of dam inflows 79

Table 3.2.6. Descriptions of dam outflows 79

Table 3.2.7. Observation discharge stations in Nakdong river 80

Table 3.2.8. Observed water stage data at Jindong site 81

Table 3.2.9. Subbasins characteristics of Nakdong river basin 86

Table 3.2.10. Status of Nakdong river water system 87

Table 3.2.11. Result on model sensitivity analysis 89

Table 3.2.12. Hydrological model performance criteria 91

Table 3.2.13. Result on basin module calibration for Nakdong SWAT 93

Table 3.2.14. Comparison of observed and simulated annual discharges for calibration at Andong dam basin 94

Table 3.2.15. Comparison of observed and simulated flow duration for calibration at Andong dam basin 94

Table 3.2.16. Comparison of observed and simulated annual discharges for calibration at Hapcheon dam basin 95

Table 3.2.17. Comparison of observed and simulated flow duration at for calibration Hapcheon dam basin 95

Table 3.2.18. Comparison of observed and simulated annual discharges for calibration at Namgang dam basin 96

Table 3.2.19. Comparison of observed and simulated flow duration for calibration at Namgang dam basin 96

Table 3.2.20. Result on reach module calibration for Nakdong SWAT 97

Table 3.2.21. Comparison of observed and simulated annual discharges for calibration at Jindong site 98

Table 3.2.22. Comparison of observed and simulated flow duration for calibration at Jindong site 98

Table 3.2.23. Result on basin module validation for Nakdong SWAT 100

Table 3.2.24. Comparison of observed and simulated annual discharges for validation at Namgang dam basin 101

Table 3.2.25. Comparison of observed and simulated flow duration for validation at Namgang dam basin 101

Table 3.2.26. Comparison of observed and simulated annual discharges for validation at Hapcheon dam basin 102

Table 3.2.27. Comparison of observed and simulated flow duration for validation at Hapcheon dam basin 102

Table 3.2.28. Comparison of observed and simulated annual discharges for validation at Namgang dam basin 103

Table 3.2.29. Comparison of observed and simulated flow duration for validation at Namgang dam basin 103

Table 3.2.30. Result on reach module validation for Nakdong SWAT 104

Table 3.2.31. Comparison of observed and simulated annual discharges for validation at Jindong site 105

Table 3.2.32. Comparison of observed and simulated flow duration for validation at Jindong site 105

Table 3.2.33. Descriptions of discharge-load relationships 106

Table 3.2.34. Nonlinear regression analysis of discharge-load relationships 107

Table 4.1.1. Description on used weather stations and data period 111

Table 4.1.2. Data descriptions for trend analysis 111

Table 4.1.3. Trend results of historical annual precipitation over korean region 113

Table 4.1.4. Trend results of historical seasonal precipitation over korean region 115

Table 4.1.5. Trend results of historical annual air temperature over korean region 122

Table 4.1.6. Trend results of historical seasonal air temperature over korea region 124

Table 4.2.1. Descriptions of hydrological stations and data over korean region 127

Table 4.2.2. Descriptions of hydrological stations and data for korean major dam sites 128

Table 4.2.3. Description of water quality stations and data at Nakdong river 129

Table 4.2.4. Detail of water quality data used in this study 129

Table 4.2.5. Results of rainfall elasticity on river discharges for major korean river sites 131

Table 4.2.6. Results of rainfall elasticity on dam inflow for major korea dam basins 133

Table 4.2.7. Result of air temperature elasticity on water temperature at Nakdong river sites 136

Table 4.2.8. Result of water temperature elasticity on BOD at Nakdong river sites 138

Table 4.2.9. Result of river discharge elasticity on BOD at Nakdong river sites 140

Table 4.3.1. Result of multivariate elasticity analysis on BOD at Nakdong river sites 143

Table 5.1.1. Considered climate change scenarios for hydrological sensitivity analysis for Nakdong SWAT 145

Table 5.1.2. Results on discharge(Q95) sensitivities at Namgang dam basin 147

Table 5.1.3. Results on discharge(Q95) sensitivities at Jindong site 147

Table 5.1.4. Results on actual evapotranspiration sensitivities at Namgang dam basin 149

Table 5.1.5. Results on actual evapotranspiration sensitivities at Jindong site 149

Table 5.1.6. Results on ground water contents sensitivities at Namgang dam basin 151

Table 5.1.7. Results on ground water contents sensitivities at Jindong site 151

Table 5.1.8. Results on soil water contents at Namgang dam basin 153

Table 5.1.9. Results on soil water contents at Jindong site 153

Table 5.2.1. Comparison of historical precipitation from observations and GCM/RCMs 155

Table 5.2.2. Comparison of historical observed flows and GCM/SWAT simulated flows at Jindong site 155

Table 5.2.3. Climate change impacts on annual discharges at Nakdong river sites based on various selected GCM scenarios 157

Table 5.2.4. Climate change impacts on seasonal discharges at Andong dam basin based on various GCM scenarios 159

Table 5.2.5. Climate change impacts on seasonal discharges at Jindong site based on various GCM scenarios 162

Table 5.2.6. Climate change impacts on flow duration curve at Jindong site 172

Table 5.4.1. Climate change impacts on extreme low flow(lowest environmental flow) at Jindong site 195

Table 6.2.1. Climate change impacts on area precipitation at Nakdong river sites 200

Table 6.2.2. Climate change impacts on discharges at Nakdong river basin 205

Table 6.3.1. Climate change impacts and adaptation concepts for general water resources problems 215

Table 6.3.2. Climate change impacts and adaptation process for flood problems 217

Table 6.3.3. Climate change impacts and adaptation process for drought problems 219

Table 6.3.4. Climate change impacts and adaptation process for water supply problems 221

Table 6.4.1. Climate change impacts and adaptation process for water environment problems 223

그림차례

Fig. 1.3.1. Outline of this study 21

Fig. 2.3.1. Process of climate change research(IPCC, 2007) 33

Fig. 2.5.1. Schematic representative of the hydrologic cycle(Neitsch et al., 2002) 38

Fig. 3.1.1. Outline of impacts assesment based on non scenario by climate changes 46

Fig. 3.1.2. Outline of trend analysis 47

Fig. 3.1.3. Impacts on river water quality by climate changes(國土交通省, 2008, changed) 56

Fig. 3.2.1. Outline of impacts assesment based on scenario by climate changes 59

Fig. 3.2.2. Assessment elements and procedure of selection GCMs 64

Fig. 3.2.3. 24 Stations for selection of GCMs 64

Fig. 3.2.4. Quantile mapping 65

Fig. 3.2.5. Kernel Smoothing method 65

Fig. 3.2.6. Deviation of climate variables 68

Fig. 3.2.7. Observed data and a monthly average deviation of climate variables of GCMs 69

Fig. 3.2.8. Revision taylor diagram(Cross-correlation coefficient of variation versus observations / GCM Resources coefficient of variation) 70

Fig. 3.2.9. Downscaling process 74

Fig. 3.2.10. Observation weather stations in this study 77

Fig. 3.2.11. Dams of Nakdong river in this study 78

Fig. 3.2.12. Water budget in Nakdong river watershed 81

Fig. 3.2.13. Construction of digital elevation model for Nakdong river watershed 82

Fig. 3.2.14. Construction of land use map for Nakdong river watershed 83

Fig. 3.2.15. Construction of soil map for Nakdong river watershed 84

Fig. 3.2.16. Construction of river network and division of sub-catchment for Nakdong river watershed 85

Fig. 3.2.17. Result on model sensitivity analysis 90

Fig. 3.2.18. Comparison of observed and simulated monthly discharges for calibration at Andong dam basin 94

Fig. 3.2.19. Comparison of observed and simulated monthly discharges for calibration at Hapcheon dam basin 95

Fig. 3.2.20. Comparison of observed and simulated monthly discharges for calibration at Namgang dam basin 96

Fig. 3.2.21. Comparison of observed and simulated monthly discharges for calibration at Jindong site 98

Fig. 3.2.22. Comparison of observed and simulated monthly discharges for validation at Namgang dam basin 101

Fig. 3.2.23. Comparison of observed and simulated monthly discharges for validation at Hapcheon dam basin 102

Fig. 3.2.24. Comparison of observed and simulated monthly discharges for validation at Namgang dam basin 103

Fig. 3.2.25. Comparison of observed and simulated monthly discharges for validation at Jindong site 105

Fig. 3.2.26. Nonlinear regression analysis of discharge-load relationships at Andong Dam 108

Fig. 3.2.27. Nonlinear regression analysis of discharge-load relationships at Jindong 109

Fig. 4.1.1. Trend and 5 years moving average line for annual precipitation at Busan and Daegu sites 112

Fig. 4.1.2. Spatial distribution of sen test slope for historical annual precipitation over korean region 114

Fig. 4.1.3. Spatial distribution of sen test slope for historical summer precipitation over korean region 116

Fig. 4.1.4. Trend and 5 years moving average line for air temperature at Busan and Daegu sites 121

Fig. 4.1.5. Spatial distribution of sen test slope for historical annual air temperature over korean region 123

Fig. 4.1.6. Spatial distribution of sen test slope for historical winter air temperature over korean region 125

Fig. 4.2.1. Spatial distribution of rainfall elasticity on river discharges for major korean river sites 132

Fig. 4.2.2. Spatial distribution of rainfall elasticity on dam inflow for major korea dam basins 134

Fig. 4.2.3. Spatial distribution of air temperature elasticity on water to temperature at Nakdong river sites 135

Fig. 4.2.4. Spatial distribution of water temperature elasticity on BOD at Nakdong river sites 139

Fig. 4.2.5. Spatial distribution of river discharge elasticity on BOD at Nakdong river sites 141

Fig. 5.2.1. Climate change impacts on annual discharges at Nakdong river sites based on various selected GCM scenarios 156

Fig. 5.2.2. Climate change impacts on seasonal discharges at Andong dam basin based on various GCM scenarios 160

Fig. 5.2.3. Climate change impacts on seasonal discharges at Jindong site based on various GCM scenarios 163

Fig. 5.2.4. Climate change impacts on monthly discharges at Andong dam basin based on various GCM scenarios 165

Fig. 5.2.5. Climate change impacts on monthly discharges at Jindong based on various GCM scenarios 166

Fig. 5.2.6. Climate change impacts on flow duration curve at Jindong site based on CNCM scenarios 168

Fig. 5.2.7. Climate change impacts on flow duration curve at Jindong site based on CSMK scenarios 169

Fig. 5.2.8. Climate change impacts on flow duration curve at Jindong site based on CT63 scenarios 170

Fig. 5.2.9. Climate change impacts on flow duration curve at Jindong site based on MPEH scenarios 171

Fig. 5.3.1. Climate change impacts on annual loads at Andong dam basin and Jindong site based on various GCM scenarios 174

Fig. 5.3.2. Climate change impacts on seasonal loads at Andong dam basin based on various GCM scenarios 177

Fig. 5.3.3. Climate change impacts on seasonal loads at Jindog site based on various GCM scenarios 179

Fig. 5.3.4. Climate change impacts on monthly BOD loads at Andong dam basin based on various GCM scenarios 181

Fig. 5.3.5. Climate change impacts on monthly BOD loads at Jindong site based on various GCM scenarios 182

Fig. 5.3.6. Climate change impacts on monthly COD loads at Andong dam basin based on various GCM scenarios 183

Fig. 5.3.7. Climate change impacts on monthly COD loads at Jindong site based on various GCM scenarios 184

Fig. 5.3.8. Climate change impacts on monthly TN loads at Andong dam basin based on various GCM scenarios 185

Fig. 5.3.9. Climate change impacts on monthly TN loads at Jindong site based on various GCM scenarios 186

Fig. 5.3.10. Climate change impacts on monthly TP loads at Andong dam basin based on various GCM scenarios 187

Fig. 5.3.11. Climate change impacts on monthly TP loads at Jindong site based on various GCM scenarios 188

Fig. 5.3.12. Climate change impacts on monthly SS loads at Andong dam basin based on various GCM scenarios 189

Fig. 5.3.13. Climate change impacts on monthly SS loads at Jindong site based on various GCM scenarios 190

Fig. 5.3.14. Climate change impacts on loads for flow duration at Jindong site 192

Fig. 6.1.1. Outline of impacts assesment for water resources and environment 196

Fig. 6.2.1. Climate change impacts on precipitation at Nakdong river sites 198

Fig. 6.2.2. Climate change impacts on area precipitation at upper basin of Nakdong river sites 201

Fig. 6.2.3. Climate change impacts on area precipitation at middle basin of Nakdong river sites 202

Fig. 6.2.4. Climate change impacts on area precipitation at lower basin of Nakdong river sites 203

Fig. 6.2.5. Climate change impacts on discharges at upper basin of Nakdong river sites 206

Fig. 6.2.6. Climate change impacts on discharges at middle basin of Nakdong river sites 207

Fig. 6.2.7. Climate change impacts on discharges at lower basin of Nakdong river sites 208

Fig. 6.2.8. Climate change impacts on discharges of flow duration at upper basin of Nakdong river sites 209

Fig. 6.2.9. Climate change impacts on discharges of flow duration at middle basin of Nakdong river sites 210

Fig. 6.2.10. Climate change impacts on discharges of flow duration at lower basin of Nakdong river sites 210

Fig. 6.2.11. Climate change impacts on coefficient of river regime at Nakdong river sites 211

Fig. 6.2.12. Climate change impacts on discharges of wet and dry season at Nakdong river sites 213

Fig. 6.3.1. Climate change impacts on water resources at Nakdong river sites 215

Fig. 6.3.2. Climate change impacts on flood at Nakdong river sites 216

Fig. 6.3.3. Climate change impacts on drought at Nakdong river sites 219

Fig. 6.3.4. Climate change impacts on water supply at Namgang dam Basin of Nakdong river sites 221

Fig. 6.4.1. Climate change impacts on water environment at Jindong of Nakdong river sites 223

Climate change will affect water resources and environment all over the world and its impacts assessment and adaptation are pending issues that are significant in terms of science and policies. However, GCMs and selection of scenarios have never been standardized while the results from systemic researches based on the water cycle mechanism covering weather, hydrologic elements, water resources and environment have been insufficient in Korea. Hence, this study explored and applied appropriate techniques for assessment of climate change impacts on water resources and environment according to the country’s needs.

Precise statistic analysis of elasticity for hydrological elements and trends for detecting climate change were conducted to provide substantial results as to changes in temperature and rainfall in Korea coming from climate change both in terms of time and space and various statistical techniques were applied for this purpose, which is significant. Especially, impacts on water temperature and water environment(quality), so far rather neglected in Korea, were analyzed, which will provide an early-stage contribution to the future water environment research and policies.

Based on selection of the most appropriate GCMs in Korea, which is the most fundamental and basic stage for climate change analysis, and application of downscaling techniques for precise materialization of Korea’s meteorological patterns in terms of space and time, the current climate change scenarios and those forecasting the next 90 years were produced and applied. Various statistical verification involving bias, seasonality, variability, and comparison of test results produced reliable results.

For the first time in Korea, the SWAT model, an integrated hydrological model was constructed for the Nakdong River basin and verified. The climate change scenario, thus derived, was applied to the model to comprehensively analyze and assess climate change impacts around the Nakdong basin based on analysis of yearly and seasonal changes in outflow, daily changes in flow duration, and changes in water pollution loads. The scenario-based studies on climate change impacts including GCM, RCM, downscaling, and SWAT are expected to provide technological methodologies for climate change research and become a foundation for more quantitative, more reliable and analytic studies on the country's climate change based on application to other basins.

If water environment impact assessment and analysis of the future water balance including a forecast of water supply and demand take place based on the results of this study, the results will be sufficiently valuable both as researches on national measures to climate change and policy materials.