표제지

목차

Abstract 7

I. 서론 19

1.1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 19

1.2. 연구의 내용 및 범위 21

II. 연구사 23

2.1. 기후변화가 수자원에 미치는 영향 연구 23

2.2. 기후변화가 저수지 수환경에 미치는 영향 연구 26

2.3. 기존 연구에 대한 고찰 27

III. 연구방법 29

3.1. 상세 기후변화 전망 모듈 29

3.1.1. 모델의 선정 29

3.1.2. 인공신경망 33

3.1.3. Dynamic Quantile Mapping 35

3.1.4. Stochastic Typhoon Simulation 37

3.2. 유역 수문·수질변화 전망 모듈 39

3.2.1. 모델의 선정 및 개요 39

3.2.2. 물수지 방정식 42

3.2.3. 유사 및 영양물질 45

3.3. 저수지 운영 모듈 47

3.4. 저수지 수환경 평가 모듈 48

3.4.1. 모델의 선정 및 개요 48

3.4.2. 모델의 지배방정식 50

IV. 저수지 수환경 영향 평가 시스템의 개발 54

V. 저수지 수환경 영향 평가 시스템의 적합성 평가 55

5.1. 대상유역의 개요 55

5.2. 모델의 성능평가 56

5.3. 상세기후변화전망 모듈의 학습 및 검증 58

5.3.1. 기후전망자료 추출 58

5.3.2. 입력자료 구축 60

5.3.3. 인공신경망 학습 및 검증결과 61

5.4. 유역 수문·수질변화전망 모듈의 보정 및 검증 65

5.4.1. 입력자료 구축 65

5.4.2. 유출량 보정 및 검증 결과 72

5.4.3. 수질항목 보정 및 검증 결과 76

5.5. 저수지 수환경 평가 모듈의 보정 82

5.5.1. 입력자료 구축 82

5.5.2. 보정 결과 94

VI. 기후변화에 의한 저수지 수환경 변화 전망 103

6.1. 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 상세기후전망 103

6.1.1. 강우량 변화 전망 103

6.1.2. 상대습도 변화 전망 107

6.1.3. 최고기온 변화 전망 109

6.1.4. 최저기온 변화 전망 110

6.2. 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 유역 수문·수질변화 전망 112

6.2.1. 유출변화 전망 113

6.2.2. 하천수질변화 전망 118

6.3. 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 저수지 수환경 변화 전망 127

6.3.1. 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 입력자료 구성 129

6.3.2. 저수지 수환경 변화 전망 132

VII. 결론 147

참고문헌 151

Table 3.1. Comparison of statistical and dynamic downscaling methods 30

Table 3.2. Comparison of GCM and RCM 31

Table 3.3. Classification of statistical downscaling methods 32

Table 3.4. Comparison of watershed models 40

Table 3.5. Comparison of reservoir models 49

Table 3.6. List of water quality constituents included in CE-QUAL-W2 model 50

Table 5.1. Statistical indices used to evaluate the model accuracy 58

Table 5.2. Input data sets for ANN 61

Table 5.3. Calibration and validation for precipitation data using ANN 62

Table 5.4. Calibration and validation for relative humidity using ANN 63

Table 5.5. Calibration and validation for maximum temperature using ANN 64

Table 5.6. Calibration and validation for minimum temperature using ANN 65

Table 5.7. Data sets for SWAT 66

Table 5.8. Land use classification 68

Table 5.9. Hydrology soil group 69

Table 5.10. Meteorological data sets for SWAT input 71

Table 5.11. Observation data sets for calibration and validation of SWAT 72

Table 5.12. Summary of statistics for daily discharge for the calibration and validation periods at the Boseong river Dam 74

Table 5.13. Summary of statistics for daily discharge for the calibration and validation periods at the Juam Dam 75

Table 5.14. Summary of statistics for water quality for the calibration and validation periods 82

Table 5.15. Summary of statistics for regression model 88

Table 5.16. Evaluation of model performance for water surface level 95

Table 5.17. Evaluation of model performance for water temperature profiles at the site Juam-1 on 2010 97

Table 6.1. Changes of total precipitation at each period under A1B scenario 104

Table 6.2. Trend results of Non-precipitation days, annual total precipitation and maximum daily precipitation 107

Table 6.3. Changes of relative humidity at each period under A1B scenario 108

Table 6.4. Changes of maximum temperature at each period under A1B scenario 109

Table 6.5. Changes of minimum temperature at each period under A1B scenario 111

Table 6.6. Summary of climate change impacts on monthly dam inflow under A1B scenario at each periods 115

Table 6.7. Computation of flow duration statistics 117

Table 6.8. Summary of climate change impacts on monthly sediment load under A1B scenario at each periods 120

Table 6.9. Summary of climate change impacts on monthly T-N load under A1B scenario at each periods 123

Table 6.10. Summary of climate change impacts on monthly T-P load under A1B scenario at each periods 126

Table 6.11. Simulated year for assessment of climate change impact on reservoir water environment 128

Table 6.12. Assessment methods for climate change impact on reservoir water environment 129

Table 6.13. Boundary conditions of water quality for assessment of climate change impact on reservoir water environment 132

Table 6.14. Mean values for hydrological factors of Juam reservoir at each simulated years 133

Table 6.15. Summary of statistics for residence time of Juam reservoir at each simulated years 134

Table 6.16. Summary of statistics for water temperature of upper layer at each simulated years 135

Table 6.17. Summary of statistics for water temperature of bottom layer at each simulated years 136

Table 6.18. Thermal stratification time at each simulated years 137

Table 6.19. Summary of statistics for inflow SS concentration at each simulated years 138

Table 6.20. Summary of statistics for volume more than that of SS 10㎎/L at each simulated year 140

Table 6.21. Summary of statistics for SS concentration of dam release more than 25㎎/L at each simulated year 142

Table 6.22. Concentrations of Algae species in water surface layer at years of 10% exceedance probability 145

Table 6.23. Concentrations of Algae species in water surface layer at years of 50% exceedance probability 145

Table 6.24. Concentrations of Algae species in water surface layer at years of 90% exceedance probability 146

Figure 3.1. Flowchart for the production of downscaled rainfall data 33

Figure 3.2. Structure of multi-layered perceptron 34

Figure 3.3. Concept of Quantile Mapping and Dynamic Quantile Mapping 37

Figure 3.4. SWAT soil nitrogen pools and processes 47

Figure 3.5. SWAT soil phosphorus pools and processes 47

Figure 4.1. Modeling framework developed for evaluating the impact of climate change on reservoir water environment 54

Figure 5.1. Weather stations and monitoring stations located in Juam Reservoir basin 56

Figure 5.2. Grid of RCM with a resolution of 27㎞ 59

Figure 5.3. DEM of Juam Reservoir basin 67

Figure 5.4. Land use map of Juam Reservoir basin 67

Figure 5.5. Textural classification of soil 69

Figure 5.6. Detailed soil map of Juam Reservoir basin 70

Figure 5.7. Soil type of Juam Reservoir basin 70

Figure 5.8. Hydrograph comparison between simulated and observed daily discharge at the Boseong river Dam 74

Figure 5.9. Hydrograph comparison between simulated and observed daily discharge at the Juam Dam 75

Figure 5.10. Comparison between simulated and observed (a) sediment, (b) T-N and (c) T-P loads at the Gyumbaek gauging station 78

Figure 5.11. Comparison between simulated and observed (a) sediment, (b) T-N and (c) T-P loads at the Jangjeon gauging station 79

Figure 5.12. Comparison between simulated and observed (a) sediment, (b) T-N and (c) T-P loads at the Dongbok A 80

Figure 5.13. Comparison between simulated and observed (a) sediment, (b) T-N and (c) T-P loads at the Boseong A 81

Figure 5.14. Computational grid of Juam Reservoir 83

Figure 5.15. Comparison of calculated and simulated values for storage capacity 84

Figure 5.16. Daily variations of hydrology factors in 2010 85

Figure 5.17. Comparison between simulated and observed inflow water temperature 87

Figure 5.18. Relationships between discharge and SS concentration observed at (a) Gyumbaek and (b) Jangjeon gauging station 89

Figure 5.19. Meteorological data in 2010 93

Figure 5.20. Comparison between observed and simulated water surface level 95

Figure 5.21. Comparison of observed and simulated water temperature profiles at the site Juam-1 on 2010 96

Figure 5.22. Comparison of observed and simulated SS concentration profiles at the site Juam-1 on 2010 98

Figure 5.23. Comparison of observed and simulated SS concentration profiles at the site Juam-2 on 2010 98

Figure 5.24. Comparison of simulated(line) and observed(circle) time series of Nitrogen at the site Juam-1 on 2010 100

Figure 5.25. Comparison of simulated(line) and observed(circle and triangle) time series of Phosphorus at the site Juam-1 on 2010 101

Figure 5.26. Comparison of simulated(line) and observed(circle) time series of Algae species and Chl-a at the Juam-1 surface layer on 2010 102

Figure 6.1. Changes of seasonal total precipitation at each period under A1B scenario 105

Figure 6.2. Trend of Non-precipitation days, annual total precipitation and maximum daily precipitation 106

Figure 6.3. Changes of seasonal relative humidity at each period under A1B scenario 108

Figure 6.4. Changes of seasonal maximum temperature at each period under A1B scenario 110

Figure 6.5. Changes of seasonal maximum temperature at each period under A1B scenario 112

Figure 6.6. Changes of daily dam inflow under A1B scenario and average line at each periods 113

Figure 6.7. Effects of climate change on monthly dam inflow under A1B scenario at each periods 114

Figure 6.8. Histogram of monthly dam inflow 114

Figure 6.9. Change of flow duration curve under A1B scenario at each periods 117

Figure 6.10. Effects of climate change on monthly sediment load under A1B scenario at each periods 119

Figure 6.11. Histogram of monthly sediment load 119

Figure 6.12. Analysis for variation of sediment load at each periods 121

Figure 6.13. Effects of climate change on monthly T-N load under A1B scenario at each periods 122

Figure 6.14. Histogram of monthly T-N load 122

Figure 6.15. Analysis for variation of T-N load at each periods 124

Figure 6.16. Effects of climate change on monthly T-P load under A1B scenario at each periods 125

Figure 6.17. Histogram of monthly T-P load 125

Figure 6.18. Analysis for variation of T-P load at each periods 127

Figure 6.19. Analysis for exceedance probability of annual dam inflow at each periods 128

Figure 6.20. Comparison between output datas of SWAT and input datas of CE-QUAL-W2 130

Figure 6.21. Time-serial variations of volume more than that of SS 10㎎/L at each simulated year 139

Figure 6.22. Time-serial variations of SS concentrations for dam release at each simulated year 141

Figure 6.23. Time-serial variations for concentrations of algae species in water surface layer 144