Title Page
Contents
ABBREVIATIONS 9
ABSTRACT 10
I. Introduction 12
1. Background 12
2. Research Questions and Objectives 15
3. Research Methodologies and Structure of the Paper 16
II. Climate and Environmental Security 17
1. The Concept of Key Terminologies 17
2. Theoretical Review 26
3. Literature Review 29
III. Development of Analytical Framework 35
1. Environmental Conflicts Mechanism 35
2. Dynamic Climate-Environmental Conflict Framework 37
2.1. Political Instability 40
2.2. Economic Unproductivity 41
2.3. Migration 42
2.4. Social segmentation 44
IV. Case Study: the Darfur Conflict 46
1. Overview of the Darfur Conflict 46
2. Comprehensive Analysis based on the Dynamic Model Climate change in Darfur 51
2.1. Climate Change in Darfur 51
2.2. Environmental Scarcity 59
2.3. Social Effect on Violent Conflict 62
3. Discussion on the Darfur War 71
V. Conclusion 73
BIBLIOGRAPHY 76
ABSTRACT IN KOREAN 88
Table 1. Long-term Rainfall Reduction in Darfur 55
Table 2. Population Densities in Darfur prior to the conflict 61
Figure 1. Meteorological temperature data (1880-2010) 19
Figure 2. The number of armed conflicts by type of conflict (1946-2016) 22
Figure 3. Vulnerability in Africa 25
Figure 4. Homer-Dixon's Environmental Conflict Mechanism 35
Figure 5. Dynamic Climate-Environmental Conflict Model 39
Figure 6. Rainfall Anomalies for Sahel Region of West Africa (1931-1995) 55
Figure 7. Annual Rainfall by region in Darfur (1910-2010) 56
Figure 8. Variability of annual maximum vegetation index 58
Figure 9. Production of groundnuts and sesame (1963-1985) 66
Figure 10. The value of total production of crops (1970-1985) 67
Figure 11. Illustrative migrations from Dar Zaghawa 69