표제지
목차
Abstract 7
연차별 연구 결과 및 계획 9
Ⅰ. 서론 11
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 13
1. 연구 대상기간 선정 13
2. 대기질 예측 모델링 시스템 구성 15
3. 대기질 예측성 향상 17
가. 모델 품위 향상 17
나. 자료동화를 활용한 대기질 예보 초기장 개선 20
4. 대기질 예측성ㆍ재분석 자료 생산 23
Ⅲ. 연구결과 및 고찰 24
1. 대기질 예측성 향상 24
가. 모델 품위 향상 24
나. 인위적 배출량 개선에 따른 대기질 예측성 평가 26
다. 황사 배출량 모듈을 적용한 사례일의 대기질 예측 평가 30
라. 지상 자료동화 32
2. 대기질 재분석 자료 생산 35
가. 대기질 재분석 자료 생산을 위한 검증 35
나. 대기질 재분석 자료 생산시 위성자료 활용 가능성 검토 40
다. 대기질 재분석 자료 생산시 황사 배출량 적용 가능성 검토 43
Ⅳ. 결론 45
참고문헌 47
〈Table 1〉 Monthly evaluation for air quality forecast model in 2015 14
〈Table 2〉 Vertical layer setup for air quality forecast model 16
〈Table 3〉 WRF, CMAQ model physics and operational setup 16
〈Table 4〉 Summary of enhancements in CMAQ v5.0 and v5.0.2 17
〈Table 5〉 Comparison Experiments of the data assimilation techniques 21
〈Table 6〉 Modeling frame to evaluate both predictability improvement and reanalysis data productivity 23
〈Table 7〉 Comparison between observed and model predicted daily average PM10 concentrations simulated by CMAQ v4.7.1 and CMAQ v5.0.2 during Feb. 2015 25
〈Table 8〉 Statistical evaluation between the model simulation for each experiments and observation 32
〈Table 9〉 Statistical evaluation between the model simulation for each experiments and observation 39
〈Table 10〉 Statistical evaluation between the model simulation for each experiments (a) without and (b) with data assimilation) and observation 44
〈Figure 1〉 Time series of observed and predicted daily average PM10 concentration in Seoul area 13
〈Figure 2〉 Spatial coverage of the outer coarser East-Asia domain used for the CMAQ model and the finer, nested Korean Peninsula domain 15
〈Figure 3〉 Comparison of previous (left) and new (right) anthropogenic emissions processing structure in support of air quality forecasting system 18
〈Figure 4〉 Information of observation station that are excluded from the data assimilation.(원문불량) 22
〈Figure 5〉 Time series of daily average PM10 concentrations for each cases with observations (OBS) over S. Korea (for the Feb. 2015, without yellow dust events) (AQFc47_E2010_Mum: Base case,...(원문불량) 25
〈Figure 6〉 Comparison of spatial distribution of anthropogenic emissions between previous (BEM) and new (NEM) emissions inventory(Daily average PM10, 20150201) 26
〈Figure 7〉 Comparison of anthropogenic emissions with source contributions between previous and new inventory in air quality forecasting system (Previous: MIX 2010(China), CAPSS 2010(ROK),... 27
〈Figure 8〉 Time series of daily average PM10 concentrations for each cases with observations (OBS) over S. Korea (for the Feb. 2015, without yellow dust events) (AQFc47_E2010_Mum: Base case,... 27
〈Figure 9〉 Spatial distribution of daily average PM10 concentrations (04 Feb.) simulated by each model cases, and time series concentrations contributed by source regions during Feb. 2015 28
〈Figure 10〉 Comparison between observed (OBS) and model predicted daily average PM10 concentrations simulated by AQM with base emissions (BEM) and new emissions(NEM) during Feb. 2015 29
〈Figure 11〉 Comparison of spatial distributions of model PM10 between without and with yellow dust emission module and GOCI AOD (2016.04.22.-24 11kst) 31
〈Figure 12〉 Comparison of time series of model PM10 between without and with yellow dust emission module and observation (2016.04.22.-24 11kst) 31
〈Figure 13〉 Comparison between model simulation for each experiments and observation on hourly PM10 concentration in (a) Seoul, (b) Daejeon 33
〈Figure 14〉 Scatter plot of model simulation PM10 and observation(a). Comparison between model simulation for each experiments and observation on (b) daily and (c) hourly average PM10 concentrations 34
〈Figure 15〉 Time series of daily average PM10 concentrations for each cases with observations over S. Korea 35
〈Figure 16〉 Statistical evaluation of air quality model used for producing the air quality reanalysis data(원문불량) 36
〈Figure 17〉 Taylor Diagrams for all MACC-II models(left) and air quality model used for producing the air quality reanalysis data(right)(M1:AQFc50_E2010_Mfnl,M2:AQFc50_E2015_Mfnl,M3:AQFc50da_E2010_... 37
〈Figure 18〉 North-south cross-section of the vertical distribution of the modeled PM10 concentrations(㎍/㎥) at 127.0E (a) Base model, (b) Data assimilated model and (c) difference between (a) and (b).(원문불량) 38
〈Figure 19〉 Location of observation stations (blue: urban sites, red: rural sites) 39
〈Figure 20〉 Comparison of spatial distributions of GOCI & model AOD between without and GOCI with data assimilation (upper panel, a~d : 11KST Feb 4, 2015 / lower panel, a~d : 11KST Feb 5, 2015) 40
〈Figure 21〉 Time series of model outputs(AOD) between without and with data assimilation for Feb 2015(원문불량) 41
〈Figure 22〉 Scatter plot of model(without : blue and with data assimilation: red) and AERONET AOD at Seoul, Gangneung.(원문불량) 42
〈Figure 23〉 Comparison of spatial distributions of MI AI & yellow dust emission model (2015.02.21.19KST) 43