[표지]
목차
국문 요약문 17
Summary 20
제1장 서론 24
제2장 태풍 단기예측 기술 개선 27
제1절 태풍 진로예측을 위한 지향류 산출과 검증 27
1) 개요 27
2) 지향류의 산출과 검증 방법 28
3) 지향류와 24시간 태풍 이동벡터의 관계 분석 31
4) 요약 및 결론 37
제2절 다중모델 앙상블 시스템과 전지구수치모델을 이용한 태풍 예측 검증 39
1) 개요 39
2) 자료와 분석방법 41
3) 분석결과 45
4) 요약 및 결론 62
제3절 통계적 방법을 이용한 태풍 강도 예측 기술 개발 64
1) 개요 64
2) 새로운 강도예측모델 전처리 과정과 알고리즘 설명 66
3) 예측인자 선정과 강도 예측 정확도 검증 76
4) 요약 및 결론 94
제4절 수치모델기반 다중알고리즘을 이용한 태풍 강풍반경 산출 95
1) 개요 95
2) 연구자료와 분석방법 97
3) 강풍반경 자료 및 산출 방법 소개 98
4) 분석결과 101
5) 요약 및 결론 106
제5절 영향 태풍에 의한 한반도 강수·바람 특성 및 관측자료 기반의 예측시스템 개발 107
1) 개요 107
2) 영향 태풍에 의한 한반도 강수·바람 특성 107
3) 예측자료 산출 방법 116
4) 2020년 사례 분석 결과 124
5) 예측성능 평가 135
6) 2021년 예측을 위한 자동화 작업 140
7) 요약 및 결론 142
제3장 태풍 장기예측 기술개선 143
제1절 태풍 장기예측 정보 생산시스템 운영 및 예측결과 검증 143
1) 개요 143
2) 2021년 태풍계절전망 변동 사항 및 발생 태풍 현황 146
3) 모델 정확도 분석 152
4) 요약 및 결론 163
제2절 북서태평양 발생 태풍의 기후학적 특성 분석 165
1. 북서태평양 발생 태풍활동 연변동성 분석 165
제4장 태풍 분석 기술 개발 178
제1절 국내·외 수치모델 기반 태풍 발생 탐지 기법 178
1) 개요 178
2) 자료 및 방법 180
3) 분석 결과 186
4) 요약 및 결론 190
제2절 태풍의 온대저기압화 가이던스 연구 192
1) 개요 192
2) 온대저기압화 객관적 판단 지수 개선 194
3) 자료 및 분석 방법 196
4) 분석 결과 197
5) 검증 208
6) 온대저기압화 예측 생산시스템 개선 212
7) 요약 및 결론 215
제5장 요약 및 결론 217
참고문헌 222
Table 2.1.1. The reference tropospheric steering layer related to the... 28
Table 2.1.2. Correlation coefficients between environmental steering flow at the... 34
Table 2.1.3. Same as Table 2.1.2 but for vertically averaged steering flow. 34
Table 2.2.1. Number of typhoons by year. 41
Table 2.2.2. Numerical model data used in the Optimal MME. 44
Table 2.2.3. RSMC Typhoon Classification Criteria. 50
Table 2.2.4. Annual number of typhoons when classified by region. 54
Table 2.2.5. Models and consensus track error by regional classification. 56
Table 2.3.1. Characteristics of the NWP model and the forecast used in the model. 66
Table 2.3.2. Atmospheric parameters in the model. 69
Table 2.3.3. List of predictors selected by forecasting time. 76
Table 2.3.4. Variance inflation factors between predictors. 77
Table 2.3.5. Correlation coefficient and p-value of predictors by forecasting time. 78
Table 2.3.6. Statistical information of predictors by forecasting time. 85
Table 2.3.7. Verification of the typhoon intensity forecast 87
Table 2.4.1. Number of typhoon by year. 97
Table 2.4.2. Wind radius products validated in this study. 98
Table 2.5.1. List of typhoons used in the analysis. 109
Table 2.5.2. Statistics for typhoon intensity greater than 980hPa. 136
Table 2.5.3. Same as Table 2.5.2 but for less than 980hPa. 136
Table 2.5.4. Statistics for 2019. 137
Table 2.5.5. Same as Table 2.5.4 but for 2020. 137
Table 2.5.6. Same as Table 2.5.4 but for 2021. 137
Table 3.1.1. Description of four models of TC seasonal prediction system of NTC. 145
Table 3.1.2. The number of tropical cyclones by month in 2021 and... 150
Table 3.1.3. Results of NTC Seasonal Prediction System in summertime. 151
Table 3.1.4. Results of NTC Seasonal Prediction System in falltime. 151
Table 3.1.5. Error rate (%) and Category forecast of NTC Seasonal Prediction... 153
Table 3.1.6. Error rate (%) and Category forecast of NTC Seasonal Prediction... 153
Table 3.1.7. Error rate (%) and Category forecast of NTC Seasonal Prediction... 154
Table 3.1.8. Error rate (%) and Category forecast of NTC Seasonal Prediction... 154
Table 3.1.9. The RMSE, Correlation, and HSS of the four models prediction... 160
Table 3.1.10. The RMSE, Correlation, and HSS of the three models prediction... 161
Table 4.1.1. The Probability of Detection(POD) of GFS at various lead time... 189
Table 4.1.2. Comparison of formation time and detection time for Tropical... 190
Table 4.2.1. New threshold using ECMWF data from 2015 to 2020. 202
Table 4.2.2. New threshold using KIM data from 2020. 207
Table 4.2.3. The optimal reference point selected based on numerical models... 211
Fig. 2.1.1. (a) Streamlines and wind speeds(shaded), and (b) the estimated... 29
Fig. 2.1.2. TC tracks classified as (a) summer and (b) winter cases from 2011... 31
Fig. 2.1.3. Steering flow of each level(100-1000hPa) centroid relative to 24... 32
Fig. 2.1.4. The relationship between environmental steering flow at the TC's... 35
Fig. 2.1.5. Correlation coefficients between environmental steering flow at the... 37
Fig. 2.2.1. Typhoon track for regional classification 44
Fig. 2.2.2. Typhoon track error of the numerical model for 2019~2021 and the 3year average. 46
Fig. 2.2.3. Annual and 3 year average CTB, ATB of numerical model and consensus. 49
Fig. 2.2.4. Typhoon track by RSMC typhoon classification grade for 3years. 50
Fig. 2.2.5. Track error by typhoon grade(left) and CTB, ATB 53
Fig. 2.2.6. Track error of 6 models in classification by region. 54
Fig. 2.2.7. 24 forecast typhoon track error map by 6 models. 57
Fig. 2.2.8. 24 forecast typhoon CTB map by 6 models. 59
Fig. 2.2.9. Same as Fig. 2.2.7, but ATB map. 61
Fig. 2.3.1. Extraction of variables from the NWP model. 70
Fig. 2.3.2. Flow chart of New Model. 75
Fig. 2.3.3. Relationship between analyzed wind speed and the selected... 79
Fig. 2.3.4. Same as Figure 2.3.5 But for 48hour. 80
Fig. 2.3.5. Same as Figure 2.3.5 But for 72hour. 81
Fig. 2.3.6. Same as Figure 2.3.5 But for 96hour. 82
Fig. 2.3.7. Same as Figure 2.3.5 But for 120hour. 83
Fig. 2.3.8. Errors of the typhoon intensity forecast(New Model: red; STIPS:... 87
Fig. 2.3.9. Typhoon intensity real-time forecast. 89
Fig. 2.3.10. Same as Figure 2.3.9. but for 48hour. 90
Fig. 2.3.11. Same as Figure 2.3.9. but for 72hour. 91
Fig. 2.3.12. Same as Figure 2.3.9. but for 96hour. 92
Fig. 2.3.13. Same as Figure 2.3.9. but for 120hour. 93
Fig. 2.4.1. Concept of Kurihara filtering. 100
Fig. 2.4.2. Mean differences of (a) wind radius, (b) strom radii between NWP... 101
Fig. 2.4.3. Mean differences of wind radius between NWP and real-time analysis. 102
Fig. 2.4.4. 10m wind field(2021080600) by numerical model 104
Fig. 2.4.5. 850hPa 15m s⁻¹ wind radii of the numerical model before and... 105
Fig. 2.5.1. Typhoon tracks used in the analysis. 108
Fig. 2.5.2. Typhoon tracks that (a) landed on the west coast(14 cases), (b)... 110
Fig. 2.5.3. Maximum wind speed field of each typhoon. Typhoon tracks that... 111
Fig. 2.5.4. Maximum wind speed field of each typhoon. Typhoon tracks that... 112
Fig. 2.5.5. Maximum wind speed field of each typhoon. Typhoon tracks that... 112
Fig. 2.5.6. Cumulative precipitation field of each typhoon. Typhoon tracks that... 113
Fig. 2.5.7. Cumulative precipitation field of each typhoon. Typhoon tracks that... 113
Fig. 2.5.8. Cumulative precipitation field of each typhoon. Typhoon tracks that... 114
Fig. 2.5.9. Average maximum wind speed. 114
Fig. 2.5.10. Average cumulative precipitation. 115
Fig. 2.5.11. Locations of best-track used in this study(1997-2020). Red and... 116
Fig. 2.5.12. Automatic weather stations rain gauge network operated by the... 117
Fig. 2.5.13. (a) Forecasted typhoon track(orange line) and the selections of... 118
Fig. 2.5.14. Observed cumulative precipitation of similar cases. 119
Fig. 2.5.15. Hourly predicted cumulative precipitation. 120
Fig. 2.5.16. Biases of maximum wind speed for each typhoon cases. 122
Fig. 2.5.17. Biases of maximum wind speed for each typhoon cases(arranged... 122
Fig. 2.5.18. Same as Fig. 2.5.16 except for precipitation. 123
Fig. 2.5.19. Same as Fig. 2.5.17 except for precipitation. 123
Fig. 2.5.20. (a) Typhoon JANGMI track(red line). (b) Maximum wind speed... 126
Fig. 2.5.21. (a) Typhoon BAVI track(red line). (b) Maximum wind speed... 127
Fig. 2.5.22. (a) Typhoon MAYSAK track(red line). (b) Maximum wind speed... 128
Fig. 2.5.23. (a) Typhoon HAISHEN track(red line). (b) Maximum wind speed... 129
Fig. 2.5.24. (a) Typhoon JANGMI track(red line). (b) Cumulative precipitation... 130
Fig. 2.5.25. (a) Typhoon BAVI track(red line). (b) Cumulative precipitation... 131
Fig. 2.5.26. (a) Typhoon MAYSAK track(red line). (b) Cumulative precipitation... 132
Fig. 2.5.27. (a) Typhoon HAISHEN track(red line). (b) Cumulative precipitation... 133
Fig. 2.5.28. (a) Typhoon HAISHEN track(red line). (b) Predicted average... 134
Fig. 2.5.29. Scatter plot of observed and modelled value(typhoon affecting the... 138
Fig. 2.5.30. Scatter plot of observed and modelled value(typhoon affecting the... 138
Fig. 2.5.31. Scatter plot of observed and modelled value(typhoon affecting the... 139
Fig. 2.5.32. Internet page of advanced forecast system. 140
Fig. 2.5.33. Internet page of cumulative precipitation and maximum wind speed... 141
Fig. 3.1.1. Schematic diagram of TC Seasonal Prediction System of National... 144
Fig. 3.1.2. Climatological standard normals updated: 1981~2010 to 1991~2020. 146
Fig. 3.1.3. Comparison of the tercile category classification of TC frequency in... 148
Fig. 3.1.4. Western North Pacific Tropical cyclone tracks in 2021. 149
Fig. 3.1.5. Cumulative number of the western North Pacific tropical cyclones... 150
Fig. 3.1.6. Time series of the observed and model prediction of Summertime... 155
Fig. 3.1.7. Time series of the observed and model prediction of Falltime... 156
Fig. 3.1.8. Time series of the observed and model prediction of summertime...[원문불량;p.134] 157
Fig. 3.1.9. Time series of the observed and model prediction of Falltime...[원문불량;p.135] 158
Fig. 3.1.10. The RMSE of the four model prediction results in summertime... 159
Fig. 3.1.11. The HSS of the four model prediction results in summertime... 160
Fig. 3.1.12. Track density of (a) the observed, and prediction of (b) Dynamical... 162
Fig. 3.2.1. Annual variation of the tropical cyclone genesis over the 70 years... 168
Fig. 3.2.2. Distribution of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific... 169
Fig. 3.2.3. Monthly variation of the sum of tropical cyclone life span time over... 170
Fig. 3.2.4. Annual variation of the sum of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum... 171
Fig. 3.2.5. Time series for the Soulik(black, solid line) and Cimaron(black,... 173
Fig. 3.2.6. Sea Surface temperature (left) and ocean heat content (right) from.... 174
Fig. 3.2.7. Geopotential height at 500hPa(contour) and wind at 200hPa... 175
Fig. 4.1.1. Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecast(TCAF). 179
Fig. 4.1.2. Flow chart for tropical cyclogenesis detection. 180
Fig. 4.1.3. Tropical Cyclone positions for cosine distance metric that make up... 182
Fig. 4.1.4. The criteria that need to be met to satisfy the detection of a... 185
Fig. 4.1.5. Example of output during the formation of TD(9937) at 12UTC 6 Oct 2021. 186
Fig. 4.1.6. (a) Probability of Detection(POD) and (b) False Alarm Rate... 187
Fig. 4.1.7. Comparison of lead time for 2021 Tropical Cyclone cases. Tropical... 189
Fig. 4.2.1. Time series of 330 K IPV from 1 day before the time of... 197
Fig. 4.2.2. Distribution of temperate cyclone determination index(330 K IPV)... 199
Fig. 4.2.3. Time series of 850hPa equivalent potential temperature from 1 day... 200
Fig. 4.2.4. Distribution of temperate cyclone determination index(850hPa... 201
Fig. 4.2.5. Time series of 330 K IPV from 1 day before the time of... 203
Fig. 4.2.6. Distribution of temperate cyclone determination index(330 K IPV)... 204
Fig. 4.2.7. Time series of 850hPa equivalent potential temperature from 1 day... 205
Fig. 4.2.8. Distribution of temperate cyclone determination index(850hPa... 206
Fig. 4.2.9. Bias of the 2015 to 2020 Extratropical Cyclone cases of the... 208
Fig. 4.2.10. Bias of the 2015 to 2020 Extratropical Cyclone cases of the... 209
Fig. 4.2.11. Bias of the 2020 Extratropical Cyclone cases of the KIM model... 210
Fig. 4.2.12. Bias of the 2020 Extratropical Cyclone cases of the KIM model... 210
Fig. 4.2.13. The spatial distribution diagram of Typhoon HAISHEN in 2020... 213
Fig. 4.2.14. Deterministic exponential time series of improved Extratropical Cyclones. 213
Fig. 4.2.15. Description of improved Extratropical Cyclones. 214