영문목차
List of maps=ix
List of tables=x
Preface=xi
List of abbreviations=xvi
Note on transliteration of Russian words=xvii
INTRODUCTION=3
1. From intervention to disengagement: a framework=3
The problem of definition=4
Intervention as an instrument of policy=8
The calculus of intervention=12
The path to disengagement=15
PART I. MOTIVATIONAL ASPECTS=25
2. The evolution of a Soviet interest=25
The tsarist period=27
Soviet rule: the early period=30
The cold war and the Horn of Africa=35
The thaw in Soviet-Ethiopian relations 1955-1960=41
The period of escalation, 1960-1967=46
3. Entering the 1970s: The Soviet disposition=58
Global trends=63
Regional trends=71
Local trends 1967-1970=87
The Soviet disposition in perspective=109
PART II. THE HORN OF OPPORTUNITY=113
4. The budding alliance: Marx, Lenin and Mohammed=113
The expansion of Soviet-Somali ties=114
The ambiguities of Somalia's 'socialist orientation'=127
Soviet perceptions of an emperor in decline=136
The year 1974: the treaty=143
5. The Ethiopian revolution and the quest for a Pax Sovietica=150
The course of the Ethiopian revolution 1974-1976=152
The Ethiopian revolution through Soviet eyes=161
The reality of Soviet caution=172
The new drive towards a Pax Sovietica=190
6. War, realignment and the enforcement of proletarian internationalism=204
The Soviet disengagement=205
The Soviet intervention=222
Soviet behaviour: an analysis=235
CONCLUSION=257
7. Soviet power without influence?=257
The military juggernaut=258
The Ethiopian constraints=269
The Soviet learning process=284
Epilogue: the diplomacy of perestroika=289
The future=302
Appendix A. Soviet-Somali treaty of 11 July 1974=307
Appendix B. Soviet-Ethiopian treaty of 20 November 1978=311
Notes=315
Bibliography=375
Index=397
1. A comparison of Soviet and American nuclear strike forces in 1970=60
2. Historical changes in Soviet and American launcher strength, 1960-1970=62
3. The Soviet naval presence in the Indian Ocean, 1960-1983=81
4. Pattern of Soviet operational ship visits in the Indian Ocean, 1967-1976=83
5. Soviet trade with Ethiopia and Somalia, 1960-1969 (millions of roubles)=91
6. The military balance in the Horn of Africa, 1969-1970: a breakdown=102
7. The military balance in the Horn of Africa, 1973-1974: a breakdown=134
8. Ethiopian and Somali arms imports 1961-1979 (in millions of current US$)=177
9. The military balance in the Horn of Africa, 1976-1977: a breakdown=182
10. Training of Ethiopian and Somali military personnel in Soviet-bloc countries, 1955-1979=194
11. Soviet trade with Ethiopia and Somalia, 1970-1978 (in millions of roubles)=208
12. Soviet arms-air-and sealift to Ethiopia during the Ogaden war, November 1977-January 1978=224
13. Cumulative totals of Soviet naval port visits to Ethiopia and Somalia, 1953-1980=239
14. The military balance in the Horn of Africa, 1987-1988: a breakdown=260