영문목차
Preface=iii
Table=vii
Summary=ix
Acknowledgments=xix
1. INTRODUCTION=1
The Structure of the Study=2
2. GENERAL CONTEXT=4
Basic Principles and Features=4
Historical Context=14
Conclusions=40
3. THE INFLUENCE OF DOMESTIC POLITICS AND THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS=42
The Political Process=42
Senior Elite Composition and Outlook=55
Societal Views=69
The Decision-Making System=77
Conclusions=91
4. THE INFLUENCE OF CHINESE POLICY AND BEHAVIOR=93
Chinese Policy Toward Taiwan: Basic Features and Evolution=93
Chinese Economic Forces: Taiwan Trade and Investment on the Mainland=105
Chinese Military Modernization and Taiwan's Foreign and Defense Policies=110
Chinese Military Modernization of Relevance to Taiwan=111
Implications for Taiwan's Security=114
Conclusions=126
5. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN=128
Introduction=128
Historical Progressions=128
Pre-1972 Relations with Taiwan=130
U.S. Strategic Reorientation Toward China=131
De-Recognition and the Taiwan Relations Act=132
Tiananmen Square and the End of the Cold War=135
The 1995-1996 Missile Crisis and the DPP Presidential Victory=135
The United States, Japan, and Pragmatic Diplomacy=137
The United States and Pragmatic Diplomacy=137
Japan and Pragmatic Diplomacy=142
The United States, Japan, and Taiwan Theater Missile Defense=147
Japanese Influence on Taiwan and BMD=150
U.S. Influence on Taiwan and BMD=152
Unofficial Government-to-Government Relations=152
Congressional Intervention=157
Postscript: The April 2001 Arms Decision=160
Conclusions=162
6. THE FUTURE OF TAIWAN'S FOREIGN AND DEFENSE POLICIES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS=164
Implications for Asian Stability and U.S. Policy=167
Taiwan's Perception of U.S. Support for Pragmatic Diplomacy=167
U.S. Military Intervention=168
Ballistic Missile Defense=168
Taiwan's Reported Ballistic and Cruise Missile Programs=171