영문목차
Preface=xiii
Acknowledgments=xvii
Summary=1
1. Sizing Up the Issues=9
The Extent and Location of Global Poverty=9
Least Developed, Heavily Indebted Poor, and sub-Saharan African Countries=14
Trade Patterns in Relation to Poverty=18
Poverty, Growth, and Trade=27
Conclusion=42
Appendix 1A. Estimating Poverty Rates=46
Appendix 1B. Poverty Incidence and Elasticity under the Lognormal Distribution=52
Appendix 1C. Convergence Versus Divergence in International Income Levels=55
2. Arrangements for Preferential Access:Experience and Potential=65
The Generalized System of Preferences=67
Special Regimes of the European Union=75
Special Regimes of the United States=85
Testing for the Trade Impact of Preferential Regimes=94
Policy Implications=98
3. Industrial-Country Protection and the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Global Poverty=105
Tariffs on Manufactured Goods=106
Peak Tariffs:How Important Are They?=108
Tariffs and Quotas in Textiles and Apparel=112
Industrial Country Protection in Agriculture=117
Aggregate Protection Against Developing Countries=126
The Impact of Industrial-Country Agricultural Trade Liberalization on Global Poverty=128
Food Trade Balance and Poverty=131
Contingent Protection=135
General Equilibrium Model Estimates of Trade Liberalization Effects=139
The Poverty Impact of Trade Liberalization=143
Protection in Services=146
Conclusion=149
Appendix 3A. Weighting Protection=153
Appendix 3B. The Tariff Equivalent of Agricultural Subsidies=155
Appendix 3C. The Impact of Industrial-Country Agricultural Import Liberalization on Povery Incidence in Developing Countries=157
Appendix 3D. Trade Balance and Comparative Advantage in Food and Agriculture for Least Developed Countries, 1999-2001=169
4. Modeling the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Global Poverty=171
The Harrison-Rutherford-Tarr CGE Model=172
The GTAP5 Trade and Protection Database=175
Trade Liberalization Simulation Results=178
Factor Price Effects=204
Poverty Effects:Static=208
Poverty Effects:Steady State=213
Preference Erosion=217
Poverty Effects in Alternative Scenarios=220
Implications=220
Appendix 4A. PEHRT Model Definitions=223
5. The Impact of Trade on Poverty Through Growth Effects=227
The Impact of Trade on Growth=228
The Impact of Trade Policy on Growth=238
The Dynamic Productivity Effects of Trade Liberalization on Global Poverty=248
The Combined Static, Dynamic, and Induced-Investment Effects=251
Caveats=255
6. Conclusion=263
Principal Findings=263
The Doha Round after CancSmall u, acute accentn=285
References=293
Index=305
Table 1.1. Countries with more than 10 million people living in poverty=12
Table 1.2. Economies with number of people living in poverty by range=13
Table 1.3. Poverty in least developed, heavily indebted poor, and sub-Saharan African countries=15
Table 1.4. Imports from developing countries, 2000=20
Table 1.5. Poverty intensity of principal US imports from developing countries, 2001=23
Table 1.6. Poverty intensity of principal developing-country exports to the world, 2000=25
Table 1.7. Regression results:Time trend of Gini coefficients=34
Table 1.8. Actual and predicted poverty rates for selected countries=37
Table 1A.1. Poverty in developing countries=48
Table 1B.1. Lognormal poverty elasticity as a function of Gini coefficient and ratio of mean income to poverty threshold income=54
Table 1C.1. Initial per capita income and per capita growth performance, 1960-99=58
Table 2.1. Generalized System of Preferences imports of the European Union, United States, and Japan, 1997=70
Table 2.2. US imports from AGOA countries by product and duty treatment, 2001=93
Table 3.1. Average tariffs on manufactured goods in industrial-country markets=107
Table 3.2. Incidence of high tariffs in manufactures for industrial-country imports from developing countries=109
Table 3.3. Illustrative impact of elimination of tariffs on manufactured imports from developing countries=111
Table 3.4. Tariffs in textiles and apparel=113
Table 3.5. Tariff peaks:Textiles, apparel, and other manufactures=114
Table 3.6. Export-tax equivalent of textile and apparel quotas under the Multi-Fiber Arrangement=115
Table 3.7. Agricultural tariff rates=118
Table 3.8. Tariff equivalent of agricultural subsidies=121
Table 3.9. Overall protection in agriculture=123
Table 3.10. Aggregate Measure of Protection against developing countries=127
Table 3.11. Food trade balance in developing countries, 1997=133
Table 3.12. Intensity of antidumping initiations per dollar of imports, 1995-99=136
Table 3.13. Core nontariff barriers, 1996=137
Table 3.14. Impact of complete trade liberalization on developing-country income=140
Table 3C.1. Impact of global agricultural liberalization on poverty=166
Table 3C.2. Sensitivity analysis for poverty impact of global agricultural liberalization=168
Table 4.1. Welfare effects of free trade:CRTS model=180
Table 4.2. Welfare effects of alternative trade liberalization scenarios=185
Table 4.3. Decomposition of static welfare gains between developing and industrial countries=194
Table 4.4. Most-favored nation tariff protection, 1997-98=198
Table 4.5. Steady state welfare gains from free trade=202
Table 4.6. Impact of free trade on real factor prices and welfare:CRTS static model=205
Table 4.7. Impact of free trade on global poverty:CRTS static model=210
Table 4.8. Impact of free trade on real factor prices and welfare:Steady State CRTS model=214
Table 4.9. Impact of free trade on global poverty:Steady State CRTS model=215
Table 4.10. Test for overstatement of gains from exclusion of preference erosion=218
Table 4A.1. Mapping of GTAP5 to PEHRT regions=223
Table 4A.2. PEHRT regions=224
Table 4A.3. Mapping of GTAP5 to PEHRT product sectors=225
Table 4A.4. Economywide factor shares=226
Table 5.1. various studies' estimates of the long-term elasticity of output per capita with respect to trade relative to GDP=237
Table 5.2. Poverty impact of dynamic productivity gains from free trade=250
Table 5.3. Combined long-term static and dynamic effects of free trade on poverty=252
Table 6.1. Aggregate Measure of Protection against developing countries=272
Table 6.2. long-term poverty reduction impact of global free trade:Central estimate=283
Figure S.1. Poverty intensity of industrial-country imports from developing countries=3
Figure 1.1. Time path of the Gini coefficient for selected economies, 1950-88=35
Figure 1.2. Actual versus lognormal-predicted poverty=36
Figure 1.3. Average GDP and export growth, 1980s and 1990s=41
Figure 1A.1. Poverty incidence and per capita income=47
Figure 1C.1. Per capita growth, 1960-99, and purchasing power parity per capita income, 1960=56
Figure 1C.2. Growth performance, excluding sub-Saharan Africa=61
Figure 3A.1. Log value and log tariff:8-digit Harmonized Tariff System of the United States=154
Figure 3B.1. Impact of farm subsidies on imports=156
Figure 3C.1. Impact of liberalization of agricultural export markets=158
Figure 6.1. Long-term impact of global free trade on poverty reduction=284