영문목차
List of Figures ix
List of Tables x
List of Boxes xi
Foreword xii
Preface xv
Acknowledgements xxi
Part I GROWTH, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND GENERAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGIES 1
1. Technology as Revolution 3
Pervasive Economic Change 4
Some Comments on Procedure and Method 16
A Preview 21
2. Two Views of Economic Processes 25
Comparisons and Contrasts 27
Functioning of the Market 36
Appendix: Technological Choices and Trajectories 50
3. A Structuralist-Evolutionary Decomposition 55
The S-E Decomposition 57
Incentives and Behaviour 65
Innovating and Non-Innovating Behaviour 68
Path Dependence and the Arrow of Time 77
Appendix: The Evolutionary Hand and Factor Substitution 83
4. Technology and Technological Change 85
Microeconomics of Technological Change 85
General Purpose Technologies 93
Is There a Testable GPT Theory? 105
How Do We Know a New GPT When We See One? 108
Appendix: Measuring Technological Change 119
An Overview of Total Factor Productivity 119
TFP and Costly Technological Change 120
Counterfactual Measures 129
5. A Survey of GPTs in Western History (Part A): 10,000 BC to AD 1450 131
Initial Conditions 134
An Evolving Hunter-Gatherer Society 136
The Neolithic Agricultural Revolution 138
Writing 144
Bronze 151
Iron and Steel 155
Classical Technologies 159
The Medieval Agricultural Revolution 160
Waterwheel 164
6. A Survey of GPTs in Western History (Part B): 1450-2010 169
Three-Masted Sailing Ship 169
Printing 175
Steam Engine 182
Mechanization 189
Railways 190
Electricity 196
Three Organizational GPTs 203
Some Future Transforming GPTs 211
Omitted GPTs 216
Concluding Thoughts 218
Part II THE TRANSITION TSUSTAINED ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE WEST 219
7. The Emergence of Sustained Extensive Growth in the West 221
Introduction 221
Early Roots 225
The Early Modern Period 235
Four Phases of Industrial Mechanization 238
Growth Becomes Sustained 255
The Three Questions Answered 258
8. Why Not Elsewhere? 267
Why Not in Islam? 267
Why Not in China? 277
Conclusion 287
9. Population Dynamics: Relation Between Extensive and Intensive Growth 290
Growth Over the Millennia 291
Relation Between Extensive and Intensive Growth 297
Model 1: Individual Household 302
Model 2: Solow Growth with Endogenous Population 308
A Multi-Sector Model 319
Other Possible Determinants of Fertility 327
The Importance of Using a CES Production Function 328
What Have We Learnt? 332
Appendix 9.1: Historical Record on the Control of
Family Size 335
Appendix 9.2: Formal Models of Population Dynamics 341
Model 1: Individual Household 341
Model 2: A Solow Growth Model with Endogenous Population 343
Model 3: A Three-Sector Model 346
10. The Emergence of Sustained Intensive Growth in the West 351
Explanations 352
The Three Generic Theories Once Again 358
Conclusion and Summary 364
Part III MODELLING SUSTAINED GPT-DRIVEN GROWTH 367
11. GPTs and Related Concepts in the Literature 371
Historical and Appreciative Theories of GPTs 371
Growth With a Single GPT 379
Conclusions 384
12. Scale Economies in Economic Growth 385
Issues of Scale in Microeconomic Theory 386
'Scale' Effects in Technological History 397
Scale Economies in Macro Growth Models 401
13. Appreciative Theories of GPTs 407
First Level of Abstraction: Adjustments of the S-E Categories 407
Second Level of Abstraction: A Stylized Evolution of a GPT 432
Third Level of Abstraction: A Logistic Curve Model of the Evolution of a GPT 434
14. Formal Models of GPT-Driven Sustained Growth: The Baseline Model 440
Outline of Our Baseline Model 440
Two-Sector Illustration of Growth Rejuvenation 445
The Three-Sector Baseline Model 449
Summary and Conclusion 465
15. Formal Models of GPT-Driven Sustained Growth: Extensions and Applications 468
Rational Versus Adaptive Expectations 468
Two Applied R&D and Consumption Sectors 475
More Than One Active GPT 477
A Simple Model of Facilitating Structure and GPTs 482
Changes in TFP Do Not Track Changes in Technology 488
Summary and Conclusions 495
Part IV POLICY 497
16. Technology Enhancement Policies: Theory and Evidence 499
Two Generic Theories 500
Policy Through Neoclassical Lenses 502
Policy Through S-E Lenses 504
Free Trade Versus Protectionism 507
Domestic Technology Enhancement Policies 516
17. Assessing Technology Enhancement Policies 526
Judging Policy Packages 526
An S-E Package for Technology Policy 538
Bibliography 544
Index 559