Title page
Contents
Assumptions and Conventions 9
Further Information and Data 10
Preface 11
Foreword 12
Executive Summary 14
Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 17
Recent Developments 17
What Went Wrong in the Euro Area- 19
Prospects 20
Risks 29
Policy Challenges 34
Special Feature: Commodity Market Review 43
References 63
Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives 64
Europe: Crisis, Recession, and Contagion 65
The United States and Canada: Regaining Some Traction 71
Asia: Growth Is Moderating 74
Latin America and the Caribbean: On a Glide Path to Steady Growth 78
Commonwealth of Independent States: Commodity Prices Are the Main Spillover Channel 82
Middle East and North Africa: Growth Stalled, Outlook Uncertain 84
Sub-Saharan Africa: Resilience Should Not Breed Complacency 87
Spillover Feature: Cross-Border Spillovers from Euro Area Bank Deleveraging 91
References 103
Chapter 3. Dealing with Household Debt 104
How Household Debt Can Constrain Economic Activity 106
Dealing with Household Debt: Case Studies 115
Summary and Implications for the Outlook 130
Appendix 3.1. Data Construction and Sources 130
Appendix 3.2. Statistical Methodology and Robustness Checks 131
References 137
Chapter 4. Commodity Price Swings and Commodity Exporters 140
Commodity Price Swings and Macroeconomic Performance 144
Commodity Market Drivers and Their Macroeconomic Effects 151
Optimal Fiscal Policy Responses to Commodity Market Shocks 155
Global Spillovers from Domestic Policies in Commodity Exporters 162
Conclusions and Policy Lessons 164
Appendix 4.1. Data Description 165
Appendix 4.2. Statistical Properties of Commodity Price Cycles 170
Appendix 4.3. Description of the Vector Autoregression Model 171
Appendix 4.4. The Basic Features of the GIMF and Its Application to a Small, Open Oil Exporter 175
References 182
Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2012 185
Statistical Appendix 188
Assumptions 188
What's New 189
Data and Conventions 189
Classification of Countries 190
General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification 190
Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2011 192
Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 193
Table C. European Union 193
Table D. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings 194
Table E. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries 195
Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 197
World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 234
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