[Title Page]
Contents
I. Introduction 9
II. Higher Education Cost Today: Composition, Characteristics, and Fiscal Support 12
1. Composition of the higher education cost 12
2. Higher education cost 16
3. International comparison 20
4. Fiscal support for higher education 24
III. Forecasts of Higher Education Costs 29
1. Literature survey 29
2. Method for forecasting changes in the higher education cost 33
3. Forecasts of the number of students 34
4. Forecasts of the education cost per student 41
A. Identifying target level of education cost per student 42
B. Forecasts of the education cost per student and change in the number of students 48
C. Scenarios for rises in tuition fees 51
5. Forecasts of higher education cost 53
IV. Forecasts of Fiscal Support for Higher Education 58
1. Forecasts of the ratio of fiscal support to the education cost 61
A. Keeping the current fiscal support-to-GDP ratio constant 61
B. Raising the MOE's support-to-GDP ratio to one percent 64
2. Student loans and aid: government scholarships 66
A. Government scholarships today 66
B. Forecasts of government scholarships and the government scholarship/tuition ratio 73
V. Summary and Policy Implications 77
Bibliography 81
Appendix 83
〈Table II-1〉 Public University Accounting System 14
〈Table II-2〉 Private University Accounting System 16
〈Table II-3〉 Higher Education Costs(2012) 17
〈Table II-4〉 Education Cost Distribution by Account 19
〈Table II-5〉 Higher Education Cost Comparison: OECD-Wide(2011) 21
〈Table II-6〉 Distribution of Fiscal Support for Higher Education by Source(2012) 25
〈Table II-7〉 Fiscal Support for Higher Education by Source and Type(2012) 25
〈Table II-8〉 The MOE's Budget for Higher Education 26
〈Table II-9〉 Public and Private Shares of Total Higher Education Cost 27
〈Table III-1〉 Forecasts of Higher Education Cost: Ratio of Fiscal Support to GDP 32
〈Table III-2〉 Number of Students by Institution Type 36
〈Table III-3〉 Education Cost per Student in Korea and Comparison to OECD Average 41
〈Table III-4〉 Functions Explaining the Education Cost per Student 45
〈Table IV-1〉 Changing Makeup of Fiscal Support for Higher Education 59
〈Table IV-2〉 Distribution of Fiscal Support for Higher Education by Source 62
〈Table IV-3〉 Government Scholarships by Ministry 67
〈Table IV-4〉 Budgets for Government Scholarships by Ministry 69
〈Table IV-5〉 Government Scholarships Provided(2014) 70
〈Table IV-6〉 Government Scholarship Distribution by Type and Income Decile 71
〈Table IV-7〉 Estimates of Tuition Relief Effects by Income Decile(2013) 72
〈Table A-1〉 Forecasts of the Number of Students(for Figure III-2) 83
〈Table A-2〉 Forecasts of the Education Cost per Student(for Figures III-5, and 6) 85
〈Table A-3〉 Forecasts of the Education Cost per Student Based on the Changes... 87
〈Table A-4〉 Forecasts of the Higher Education Cost and Tuition Fees(for Figures... 89
〈Table A-5〉 Ratio of Fiscal Support to the Education Cost: At a Fixed Fiscal... 91
〈Table A-6〉 Ratio of Fiscal Support to the Education Cost: With the Fiscal.. 93
〈Table A-7〉 Forecasts of Tuition Fees and Government Scholarships(For Figures... 95
[Figure II-1] Higher Education Cost Flow 13
[Figure II-2] GDP per Capita and Education Cost per Student at Different Levels... 22
[Figure III-1] Trend in the Ratio of Enrolled Students to College-Age Population 38
[Figure III-2] Change in the Number of Enrolled Students by Scenario 40
[Figure III-3] Trends in the Education Cost per Student 46
[Figure III-4] Comparison of Target Levels for Education Cost per Student 48
[Figure III-5] Forecasts of the Education Cost per Student Based on Decreasing... 50
[Figure III-6] Education Cost per Student: Changes in the Number of Students... 53
[Figure III-7] Higher Education Cost/GDP Forecasts 55
[Figure III-8] Tuition Fee/Higher Education Cost Forecasts 56
[Figure III-9] Ratio of the Education Cost and Tuition Fees per Student to the... 57
[Figure IV-1] Share of Fiscal Support of the Education Cost: at a Constant Fiscal... 64
[Figure IV-2] Share of Fiscal Support of the Education Cost: Raising the MOE... 65
[Figure IV-3] Tuition Fee/Education Cost Forecasts 73
[Figure IV-4] Government Scholarships/Tuition Fees Ratio 75