Title page
Contents
Foreword 17
Acknowledgments 20
About the Contributors 21
Executive Summary 23
Abbreviations 25
Overview 27
Key Messages 33
The Foundations of Economic Transformation through Digital Technologies 42
Notes 46
References 46
Chapter 1. Enabling Inclusive Digital Technologies 48
Introduction 48
WDR 2019 Analytical Framework and Predicted Effects for Sub-Saharan Africa 51
Availability of Digital Technologies and Their Effects to Date 57
Availability of Digital Skills and Their Determinants 74
Technology and the Global Production Base 83
Policy Implications and Future Research Agenda 91
Annex 1A. Opportunities and Caveats of Using LinkedIn Data 93
Notes 94
References 96
Chapter 2. Human Capital 102
Introduction 102
Human Capital and the Future of Work: What Is Different in Sub-Saharan Africa? 108
From Digital Technologies to Jobs through Adequate Human Capital 120
The Importance of Grassroots and Bottom-Up Innovation 130
Policy Implications and Future Research Agenda 136
Notes 139
References 141
Chapter 3. Increasing Informal Sector Productivity 145
Introduction 145
Overview of Formal and Informal Farms and Firms 148
The Future of Informal Work under the Digital Economy 166
Policy Implications and Future Research Agenda 176
Notes 180
References 181
Chapter 4. Extending Social Protection Coverage 187
Introduction 187
Systemic Risks and Fiscal Constraints to Social Protection Coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa 189
Importance of Managing Risks, Leveraging Opportunities, and Optimizing Resources 217
Conclusion 232
Annex 4A. The World Bank's ASPIRE Program Classification 233
Annex 4B. WDR 2019 on Social Protection in the Changing World of Work 234
Annex 4C. Illustration of Social Protection Policies to Mitigate Risks and Leverage Opportunities 236
Notes 237
References 240
Table O.1. Main Policy Recommendations Suggested by This Book 43
Table O.2. Important Unanswered Policy Questions 45
Table 2.1. Investment in Skills, Knowledge Production, and Job Creation in Sub-Saharan Africa 133
Table 3.1. Conceptual Framework of the Informal Economy 150
Table 3.2. Top 10 and Bottom 10 Economies on Ease of Doing Business Rankings, 2019 164
Table 3.3. Uses of ICTs by Informal Businesses in Selected East African Countries 167
Table 4.1. Social Protection and Labor Programs 189
Figure O.1. Impact of Technological Progress on Work Opportunities in Sub-Saharan Africa 33
Figure O.2. Correlation of Mobile Broadband with GDP per Capita and Poverty, Sub-Saharan Africa 34
Figure O.3. Impact of Faster Internet on Skilled Occupations and Jobs across Education Levels 35
Figure O.4. Growth of Digital Skills in Sub-Saharan Africa 36
Figure O.5. Prerequisites and Selected Measures of Human Capital 37
Figure O.6. Informal Employment, by Region and Level of Development, 2016 39
Figure O.7. Social Protection Coverage, by Region 40
Figure O.8. Performance of Different Tax Types, Sub-Saharan Africa 41
Figure O.9. SPL Expenditures and Other Public Investments, Selected Countries 41
Figure O.10. Comparing OECD-DAC Bilateral Aid and Chinese Loans to Africa, 2016 42
Figure 1.1. Impact of Technological Progress on Work Opportunities 51
Figure 1.2. Example of Changing Skill Composition Demand, 1986 versus 2018 55
Figure 1.3. Automation, Globalization, and Manufacturing Employment 56
Figure 1.4. Unique Mobile Broadband Penetration, by Region, 2010-18 58
Figure 1.5. Correlation between Availability of Mobile Broadband or Mobile Voice and Income and Inclusion Indicators 62
Figure 1.6. Digital Skills in Sub-Saharan Africa Relative to Other Regions 75
Figure 1.7. Large Heterogeneity in Relative Penetration of Digital Skills across Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa 77
Figure 1.8. Relative Penetration of Various Digital Skills in Sub-Saharan African Countries 78
Figure 1.9. Adoption of Various Digital Skills in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries and Benchmark Countries in Europe 79
Figure 1.10. Growth of Digital Skills in Sub-Saharan Africa 80
Figure 1.11. Correlation between Digital Skill Adoption and Complementary Factors 81
Figure 1.12. Exports of Raw Materials and Technology-Intensive Products from Sub-Saharan Africa 88
Figure 1.13. Unit Labor Costs and Wages in Developing Countries That Are Significantly Involved in Global Value Chains 89
Figure 2.1. Sub-Saharan Africa's Poor Performance on the World Bank's Human Capital Index 109
Figure 2.2. Poor Learning Outcomes for Students in Many Sub-Saharan African Countries 110
Figure 2.3. Wage-Earning Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa 111
Figure 2.4. Self-Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa 112
Figure 2.5. Impact on Productivity of High Jobs Growth in Certain Sectors, Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960s-2015 113
Figure 2.6. Share of Population with Completed Tertiary Education, Sub-Saharan Africa versus Other Regions 116
Figure 2.7. Tertiary Education Enrollment in Sub-Saharan Africa, by Field 117
Figure 2.8. Prerequisites for Helping Sub-Saharan Africa Reap the Benefits of Digital Technologies 121
Figure 2.9. Use of Mobile Phone and Internet to Access Financial Accounts 123
Figure 2.10. Shares of Individuals Using the Internet in Sub-Saharan Africa 130
Figure 2.11. Top-Down and Bottom-Up Framework for Sub-Saharan Africa's Innovation Ecosystem 131
Figure 2.12. ICT Readiness Determined by Five Key Variables, Selected Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa 132
Figure 3.1. Key Correlates of Informality: Development Outcomes, Fiscal Indicators, and Governance 151
Figure 3.2. Share of Informal Activity for Three West African Economies 154
Figure 3.3. Pervasive Informal Labor in Africa 155
Figure 3.4. Formal Employment, by Worker Age and Economy's Level of Development, 2016 157
Figure 3.5. Informality and Entrepreneurial Dynamism, Sub-Saharan Africa Relative to Other Regions and EMDEs 158
Figure 3.6. Distribution and Characteristics of Farms, Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Regions 160
Figure 3.7. Internet in Africa, by Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics, 2011-12 169
Figure 4.1. Extraregional and Intraregional Trade, 2017 195
Figure 4.2. Composition of Trade within Africa versus African Exports to the Rest of the World 196
Figure 4.3. Adjustment Paths Following Trade Liberalization 197
Figure 4.4. Conflict Events Worldwide and Internally Displaced Persons in Africa 199
Figure 4.5. Demographic Transition and Urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa 201
Figure 4.6. Destinations and Reasons for Emigration by Africans 202
Figure 4.7. Social Protection Coverage and Number of Programs 204
Figure 4.8. Social Safety Net Coverage of Population Groups, by Region and Program Type 205
Figure 4.9. Social Assistance Packages and the Cost of Universal Basic Income 206
Figure 4.10. Social Protection and Labor Programs in Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, and Tanzania 207
Figure 4.11. Average Social Safety Net Spending, by Region 208
Figure 4.12. Share of Donor-Funded Safety Nets in Sub-Saharan African Countries 209
Figure 4.13. Tax as Share of GDP, by Country Income Group 210
Figure 4.14. Revenues in Sub-Saharan Africa, Non-Oil-Rich Countries versus Oil-Rich Countries 211
Figure 4.15. Tax Performance and Revenue Generation, Sub-Saharan Africa versus Selected Countries 212
Figure 4.16. Withholding Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016 214
Figure 4.17. Social Protection and Labor Expenditures and Other Public Investments, Selected Countries 215
Figure 4.18. Attitudes among Africans toward Receiving Money without Working for It 216
Figure 4.19. Addressing the Challenges of the Informal Sector 218
Figure 4.20. Migrant Remittances and Official Development Assistance, Selected African Countries 222
Figure 4.21. Cost of Sending Money and Cost Corridors in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018 223
Figure 4.22. Excise Tax Trends, Sub-Saharan Africa versus the Rest of the World 225
Figure 4.23. Property Tax Collections in Sub-Saharan Africa 226
Figure 4.24. Comparing OECD-DAC Bilateral Aid and Chinese Loans to Africa, 2016 231
Boxes
Box O.1. World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work 28
Box 1.1. Impact of Faster Internet Adoption on Jobs, by Skill and Education Levels 67
Box 1.2. Impact of Digital Technology Adoption on Low-Skill Jobs through the Output Expansion Effect 69
Box 1.3. Impact of Access to M-Pesa on Users' Occupational Choices over Time 71
Box 1.4. Impact of Automation in Sub-Saharan African Countries 85
Box 2.1. Lack of Investment in Early Childhood Development in Sub-Saharan Africa 103
Box 2.2. Adult Illiteracy in Sub-Saharan Africa 105
Box 2.3. Leveraging Digital Opportunities: Investing in the Skills Needed in the Modern Economy 107
Box 2.4. Pathways to Developing Skills in the Informal Sector 114
Box 2.5. Canadian Networks of Centres of Excellence: Success and Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa 118
Box 2.6. Adult Literacy Programs, Skills, and Employment: What the Evidence Shows 121
Box 2.7. Unlocking Technological Entrepreneurship in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Rise of Tech Startups, Tech Hubs, and Innovation Ecosystem 128
Box 2.8. Pathways to Better Job Creation: The Role of Human Capital in Developing Countries 134
Box 3.1. E-Extension Increases Productivity for Smallholders in Sub-Saharan Africa 170
Box 3.2. Services Increasing Farmers' Financial Inclusion 172
Box 3.3. Potential Impact of Agricultural Innovation Ecosystems in Kenya and Nigeria 174
Box 3.4. Policies Implemented to Address Informality 176
Box 4.1. Digital Technologies and Disruptions to Work in Africa's Mining Sector 191
Box 4.2. Principles to Guide the Design of Informal Sector Pension Schemes 220
Box 4.3. Productive Inclusion through the Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program 229
Box 4.4. Donor Collaboration through the Rapid Social Response Trust Fund 230
Maps
Map O.1. Effect of a 1℃ Increase in Temperature on Real per Capita Output, Grid Level 40
Map 4.1. Effect of a 1℃ Increase in Temperature on Real per Capita Output, Grid Level 198
Box Tables
Table B1.2.1. Impact of Digital Technology Adoption and Output Expansion on Jobs and Productivity in Latin American Countries 70
Box Figures
Figure BO.1.1. How Societies Can Benefit from the Potential of Technology 29
Figure B1.1.1. Impact of Faster Internet on Skilled Occupations and Jobs across Education Levels 68
Figure B1.2.1. Impact of Skill-Biased Digital Technology Adoption and Output Expansion on High- and Low-Skill Jobs 69
Figure B1.3.1. The Influence of Access to M-Pesa on Individuals' Occupational Choices 72
Figure B2.2.1. Adult Illiteracy in Sub-Saharan Africa 106
Figure B2.3.1. Life-Cycle Skills Development in Sub-Saharan Africa for the Future of Work 107
Figure B2.4.1. Skill Levels in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries, by Workforce Sector 114
Figure B2.4.2. Sources of Skills Training in Tanzania's Informal Sector, 2006 115
Figure B2.8.1. Share of Employment, by Size of Firm, Sub-Saharan Africa 134
Figure B2.8.2. Firm Size in Sub-Saharan Africa 135
Figure B2.8.3. Survival Rates of Firms in Selected Countries, by Firm Age and Size 136
Figure B3.4.1. Policy Reforms to Curb Informality, Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Regions 177
Figure B4.1.1. Contributions of Mining Sector to Exports and National Employment, Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries 191
Figure B4.1.2. Employment in Formal versus Artisanal Mining, Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2017 193
Figure B4.1.3. Mining Industry Employment by Occupational Category, South Africa and Zambia 194
Box Maps
Map B2.7.1. Growth of Africa's Tech Hubs Landscape, 2019 129
Annex Figures
Figure 4B.1. Framework for Social Protection and Labor Regulation to Manage Labor Market Challenges 235