Title page
Contents
Report summary 7
01. Introduction 19
1.1. Unsustainable land use 21
1.2. Unsustainable land demand? 22
1.3. Vicious circles 27
1.4. Report outline 27
02. The state of the world's land resources 29
2.1. How much land is there, and how is it used? 29
2.2. Aggregate land cover changes 33
2.3. Land uses and drivers of change 35
2.4. Consequences of land use and land-use change 45
2.5. Redistributing global land resources 49
2.6. Mounting pressures 51
03. Land and climate pressures 52
3.1. Introduction 52
3.2. Land-based emissions and sequestration today 54
3.3. Contemporary challenges 61
3.4. Conclusions 76
04. Land and agri-food pressures 79
4.1. Land use for food production 79
4.2. Approaches to reduce the land footprint of food production 87
4.3. How plausible is a reduced land footprint for food production? 97
05. Land and energy pressures 99
5.1. Introduction 99
5.2. Growth in energy demand and renewable energy supply 101
5.3. Energy sources and their land footprints 103
5.4. Land requirement for renewables in 2050 108
5.5. Challenges and conclusions 119
06. The land crunch 120
6.1. Challenges around the finite supply of land 120
6.2. Land scarcity - assessing the data 125
6.3. Making space for nature 132
6.4. Conclusions 137
07. Measuring land wealth 138
7.1. An evolving picture 140
7.2. The Chatham House Land Wealth Index 140
7.3. Land wealth overview 152
7.4. Land wealth and international relations 158
7.5. Using land wealth well: the role of trade and markets 166
7.6. Conclusions: land as the strategic asset of the future 170
08. Geopolitics and land-use 'futures' 172
8.1. Introduction 172
8.2. Key assumptions 173
8.3. Defining the four 'futures' 173
8.4. 'Tipping over the edge together': business-as-usual land use and international cooperation 177
8.5. 'Plunder thy foreigner': unsustainable land-use patterns combined with reduced international cooperation 182
8.6. 'Self-sufficiency for national security': sustainable land use in an uncooperative world 186
8.7. 'A land-wealthy world': highly cooperative international relations and sustainable land use 192
8.8. Conclusions 197
09. Conclusions and recommendations 199
Acronyms and abbreviations 217
Appendix: Supplementary referencing and permissions 219
About the authors 222
Acknowledgments 224
Table 1. The four forms of ecosystem services threatened by unsustainable land use and land-use change 45
Table 2. Overview of different estimates of land-use intensity relating to a range of energy systems and fuels 104
Table 3. Requirement of BECCS to balance energy sector carbon budget, under REmap, in MtCO₂ per year 115
Table 4. Chatham House Land Wealth Index - principal components 145
Table 5. Chatham House Land Wealth Index and component scores 146
Table 6. Key outcomes for planetary and public health under the four futures 198
Figure 1. Planetary boundaries and how they are affected by land use 21
Figure 2. Vicious circles of land-use change 27
Figure 3. Global land-use activity and land cover, 2019 30
Figure 4. Land-use and land cover classifications 32
Figure 5. Global land cover changes, 1992-2019 33
Figure 6. Direct changes in global land cover types 1992-2019 34
Figure 7. The global cropland footprint in 2000 and the proportion used for food production 36
Figure 8. Primary drivers of forest cover loss, 2001-15 37
Figure 9. Global cropland extent and change, 2000-19 38
Figure 10. Urban land cover hierarchy and respective land takes 41
Figure 11. Projected urban expansion until 2030 expected to result in cropland loss 41
Figure 12. Biodiversity threats from agricultural expansions 46
Figure 13. Global aridity index 49
Figure 14. Relative roles played by agricultural commodities versus manufactures and services in globalizing lands 51
Figure 15. Agriculture and land-use change emissions by source and gas 55
Figure 16. The different relationships between emissions and warming responses for carbon dioxide and methane 57
Figure 17. Carbon stocks and annual fluxes, natural and human-caused, to scale 59
Figure 18. Global distribution of organic carbon stocks, 2001-10 60
Figure 19. Net and gross fluxes of carbon dioxide from land (annual averages for 2008-17) 61
Figure 20. Evidence on land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) abatement costs, deployment potentials, and key side effects 68
Figure 21. Cost-effective nature-based solutions, potential annual mitigation contributions by 2025 (GtCO₂ per year) 70
Figure 22. Land-use changes in 2050 and 2100 in the IPCC's illustrative 1.5°C-consistent pathway archetypes 74
Figure 23. Crop belts of the world (circa 2000) 80
Figure 24. Land use per food item 82
Figure 25. Changes in cropland area, production volumes, yields and input intensities, 1961-2019 84
Figure 26. Global electricity generation by source in the REmap 66 percent 2°C scenario 102
Figure 27. Proportion of regional 'other' land (FAO classification) required for non-bioenergy renewables and storage, under REmap in 2050 108
Figure 28. Proportion of forest and agricultural areas dedicated to bioenergy feedstocks, by region, under REmap energy scenario in 2050 112
Figure 29. REmap global emissions abatement to 2050 113
Figure 30. BECCS deployment curve and energy sector carbon budget, with and without NETs 114
Figure 31. Proportion of agricultural area dedicated to BECCS feedstocks by region, under REmap energy scenario in 2050 116
Figure 32. Land areas and type by region 122
Figure 33. Change in global land use to 2050 modelled under the REmap energy scenario, combined with a BAU agri-food scenario (S0), compared with three... 128
Figure 34. Allocation of land types in 2050 agri-food scenarios: BAU (S0) compared with ambitious scenario (S3) of sustainable intensification + 50 percent less... 130
Figure 35. Change in global land use by 2050 modelled under the REmap energy scenario, combined with a BAU agri-food scenario (S0), compared with two meat... 131
Figure 36. Chatham House Land Wealth Index by country 152
Figure 37. Countries' land wealth by each of the five featured PCA components 153
Figure 38. Intra-country agricultural land inequalities: distribution of land value among landowners and landless agricultural households 156
Figure 39. Four permutations of land-use sustainability and international cooperation between now and 2050 175
Boxes
Box 1. Other pressures on land 25
Box 2. Indigenous communities and marginalized land stewards 39
Box 3. Putting sparse land to use 43
Box 4. Land-use threats to water security 48
Box 5. Climate change tipping points and land use 53
Box 6. Methane and nitrous oxide: relative impacts 56
Box 7. Other geoengineering solutions? Solar radiation modification 67
Box 8. Growing interest in nature-based solutions - but solutions to what? 72
Box 9. Aquaculture and agriculture interactions 85
Box 10. Sustainable intensification in practice 91
Box 11. Betting on BECCS? 117
Box 12. The realities of a 'land crunch': present and future 127
Box 13. The urgency of now - summary of progress on the three 'Rio conventions' 133
Box 14. Summary characteristics of country typologies under changing dynamics of land use and international cooperation 175
Box 15. The land-use geopolitics of Russia's isolation as a pariah state 181
Box 16. The global implications of China's resource strategy 190
Box 17. The future of key global climate regulators and biodiversity repositories 196
Box 18. Political realities: the problem of 'systemic intransigence' 200