Title
Contents
Preface 5
Background 10
The ROK Manpower Problem 11
The 2004 Force and the Postulated 2020 Force 13
Military Force Requirements 17
What Security Challenges and Requirements Will Korea Have? 17
The Relative Level of Risk 21
Describing the ROK Security Requirements 22
Will ROK Conventional Capabilities Be Maintained? 23
Will the ROK Forces Meet the Requirements and Be Self-Reliant? 24
What Will Be the Value of the ROK-U.S. Alliance? 26
What Are the Risks in the Alliance, and What Must Be Done to Sustain That Alliance? 28
Producing the Reformed Force 30
Can the MND Get the Required Budget Increases? 30
Will the Planned Force Investment Program Be Sufficient? 32
Can the Required Procurements Be Completed by 2020? 35
Can the Required Manpower Be Acquired? 37
How Might MND Manage Its Manpower Acquisition Through 2020? 43
Is an “All-Volunteer Force” Possible? 44
Major Risks in Producing the Reformed Force 44
How Will the Plan Affect the Morale of the Military Forces? 45
How Will the United States Likely View the Plan? 46
Managing the Risks 46
Conclusions 49
APPENDIX : Comparative Historical Cases of Defense Reform 50
1. The Number of 20-Year-Old ROK Men 12
2. Connecting Security Challenges to Military Requirements 18
3. Level of Risk from North Korea, to 2025 21
4. The Projected ROK Military Budget 31
5. The Projected Force Investment Budget 33
6. Contemplating a Larger Force to Hedge Against Risks 47
A.1. NATO Military Manpower After the Cold War (Versus 1990) 50
A.2. ROK Versus U.S. Active-Duty Drawdown 51
A.3. NATO Military Budgets After the Cold War (Versus 1990) 52
1. Comparison of ROK Air Force, 2004 Versus 2020 13
2. Comparison of ROK Navy and Marine Corps, 2004 Versus 2020 15
3. Comparison of ROK Army, 2004 Versus 2020 16
4. The ROK Security Requirements 22
5. Rough Assessments of the DRP 2020 Force Versus the 2004 Force and 2020 Military Risks 23
6. The Level of Risk in 2020 Military Requirements for Combined ROK and U.S. Forces 29
7. Major Acquisitions in the 2006.2020 Force Improvement Program 36
8. Estimating the Force Improvement Program Costs 37
9. Projecting ROK Military Personnel 39
10. Accessions Versus Available Force Size, 2015.2020 40
11. Volunteers Needed As a Percentage of Age Group 40
12. Effects of the Achievable Volunteer Rate 42
13. Officer Changes 43