Contents
At a glance 1
Background 2
Trends in urban traffic 3
Projections of capital city vehicle use levels 7
Average network performance 13
Congestion costs 17
Estimates of avoidable congestion costs 21
Projecting avoidable congestion costs 24
Unit costs of congestion 29
Sensitivity scenarios for projection trends 33
Structural change 35
References 37
Table 1. Total motor vehicle use, within all Australian capital cities, 1930-2015 12
Table 2. Base case projections of road vehicle use, within all Australian capital cities, to 2030 13
Table 3. Base case projections of total vehicle kilometres travelled, by city, to 2030 14
Table 4a. Upper baseline projections of avoidable social costs of congestion, by city to 2030 26
Table 4b. Lower baseline projections of avoidable social costs of congestion, by city to 2030 27
Figure 1. Total metropolitan passenger task for Australia, across all modes, 1900-2014 4
Figure 2. Modal shares for various metropolitan travel choices, 1900-2014 5
Figure 3. Total urban passenger task for Australia, across all modes, 1945-2014 6
Figure 4. Baseline modal share projections for total urban travel to 2030 6
Figure 5. Relationship of per capita Australian urban travel to per capita income levels 8
Figure 6. Base case long-term projections of per capita car use in Australia 9
Figure 7. Base case projections of metropolitan vehicle use in Australia, to 2030 9
Figure 8. Long-term metropolitan VKT trends and base case projections to 2030 11
Figure 9. Total projected traffic for Australian capital cities to 2030, upper baseline scenario 11
Figure 10. Representative hourly distribution of delay intensity, across an average weekday 16
Figure 11. Representative daily profile of urban vehicle use, across an average weekday 16
Figure 12. Representative profile of total urban traffic delay, across an average weekday 17
Figure 13. Estimated proportion of total congestion costs due to deadweight losses 20
Figure 14. Difference in hourly profiles of average weekday and average weekend costs 20
Figure 15. Representative profile of total vehicle delay costs, across an average weekday 21
Figure 16. Trends in total and avoidable congestion cost levels for trip delays, 1990-2015 22
Figure 17. Representative profile for major components of avoidable congestion costs 23
Figure 18. Trends in avoidable social costs of congestion, base case scenario results 25
Figure 19. Comparison with base case scenario results from Working Paper 71 25
Figure 20. Upper baseline projections of avoidable social costs of congestion, by city 28
Figure 21. Avoidable congestion cost components, upper baseline scenario projections 28
Figure 22. Average unit costs of congestion for Australian metropolitan areas 29
Figure 23. Average per capita congestion costs for Australian metropolitan areas 30
Figure 24a. Avoidable congestion costs by city population levels, historical trend 31
Figure 24b. Base case congestion costs by city population levels, upper baseline scenario 32
Figure 24c. Base case congestion costs by city population levels, lower baseline scenario 32
Figure 25. Sensitivity of congestion cost projections to road supply assumptions 34
Figure 26. Sensitivity scenario for self-driving vehicles 36