Title page
Contents
Abstract 2
1. Introduction 3
2. Estimation 7
3. Data 10
3.1. Tracking households between homes 11
3.2. Creating the panel 12
4. Results 12
4.1. Robustness, Validity Checks, and Further Results 14
5. Model 14
6. Calibration 20
6.1. Identification 22
6.2. Results 22
7. Estimates of the Multiplier from Stimulus 23
7.1. Robustness and Alternative Specifications 25
8. Fiscal Multiplier from Housing Stimulus 27
9. Conclusion 29
References 29
Appendix 39
A. Details of Matching on Buyer and Seller Name 39
B. Robustness, Validity Checks, and Further Results 41
C. Model Details 46
Table 1. Summary Statistics 35
Table 2. Effect of Home Sale on Owner's Monthly Purchase Hazard 35
Table 3. Model Summary 36
Table 4. Parameter Estimates 37
Table 5. Model Fit 37
Table 6. Sales Volume Multiplier Estimates from Stimulus 38
Table 7. Effect of Home Sale on Owner's Monthly Purchase Hazard, Robustness Checks 50
Table 8. Effect of the FHA MIP Cut on Prices and New Listings 51
Table 9. Testing for Direct Effect of the Instrument 52
Table 10. Sales Volume Multiplier Estimates from Stimulus, Endogenous Prices 53
Figure 1. Effect of Treatment on Monthly Sale Probability 33
Figure 2. Sales Volume Response to a Demand Shock 34
Figure 3. Sales Volume Response to a Demand Shock, no Change in Choice Probabilities after Stimulus 34
Figure 4. Sales Volume Response to a Temporary Demand Shock 49