Title page
Contents
Abstract 2
1. Introduction 3
2. Background, Data, and Industry-Level Measurement 6
2.1. Recent Trends in U.S. Manufacturing 6
2.2. Timing of U.S. and Retaliatory Tariffs 7
2.3. Data and Measurement 10
2.4. Level of Aggregation 11
2.5. Industry-Level Measures of Trade Policy Impact 12
3. Short-Run Impacts of Tariffs on Manufacturing 16
3.1. Empirical Strategy 17
3.2. Results 18
3.3. Discussion 21
4. Conclusion 21
References 23
Appendix 25
A. Expanded Detail on Implemented Tariffs 25
B. Additional Results 26
Table 1. Top Ten Industries by New Import Protection 13
Table 2. Top Ten Industries by New Tariff Export Share of Output 14
Table 3. Top Ten Industries by New Tariff Import Share of Costs 16
Table 4. Point Estimates of Cumulative Effect by Channel 20
Figure 1. Measures of Manufacturing Activity: 2017m1 to 2019m8 7
Figure 2. Timeline of New U.S. Import Tariffs: 2018-2019 9
Figure 3. Timeline of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Exports: 2018-2019 10
Figure 4. Effects of Cumulative Tariffs (Detrended) 19
Table A1. New U.S. Import Tariffs by Trade Action and Wave 25
Table A2. New Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Exports by Trade Action and Wave 25
Figure B1. Composition of New U.S. Import Tariffs: 2018-2019 26
Figure B2. Coefficient Estimates from General International Conditions 27
Figure B3. Effects of Cumulative Tariffs (Non-Detrended) 29
Figure B4. Univariate Effects of Cumulative Tariffs (Detrended) 30
Figure B5. Employment Effects by Tariff Wave (Detrended) 31
Figure B6. I.P. Effects by Tariff Wave (Detrended) 32
Figure B7. P.P.I. Effects by Tariff Wave (Detrended) 33