Title page
Contents
Key Messages 6
01. Preliminary considerations and methodology 10
02. Socio-economic situation before the health crisis 14
03. Transmission mechanisms 20
3.1. Direct effects due to containment measures 21
3.2. Indirect effects due to regional and global interdependence 25
04. Transmission to the labour market 28
4.1. Beyond unemployment: workers and enterprises at risk 30
4.1.1. Mapping labour vulnerabilities at sectoral level 30
4.1.2. Work and enterprises at risk 31
4.2. Mitigating vulnerabilities: the role of labour market institutions 33
05. Policy responses and gaps 36
5.1. Overview of the policy response41: four key pillars based on international labour standards 37
5.2. Winners and losers during the current phase of the crisis 42
5.3. Options for a more inclusive policy response 46
Annex 1 - Mapping the labour vulnerabilities of selected sectors 49
Annex 2 - Impact of the crisis on enterprises 51
Annex 3 - COVID-19: Containment, closure and health measures adopted 53
Annex 4 - Policy packages already adopted 55
Annex 5 - Practical guidance on changes required in labour legislation to mitigate the impacts of Covid-19 59
About this report 63
Acknowledgements 63
Table 3.1. Shares in trade and estimated GDP changes among the main trade partners 26
Table 3.2. Reduction in international trade in March 2020 26
Table 4.1. Working hours and FTE jobs lost in the Western Balkans 29
Table 4.2. Exposure to shocks 31
Table 4.3. Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic at sectoral level 32
Table 4.4. Shock impact at employment, at sectoral level 32
Table 5.1. Discretionary fiscal response (as of 15.05.2020) 38
Table 5.2. Subsidy share in the total formal wage bill 44
Figure 1.1. Covid-19 and the World of Work: timing policies to the appropriate phase 12
Figure 2.1. Sectoral composition of growth, employment and wages 15
Figure 3.1. Mobility trends during the lockdown 21
Figure 3.2. Expected impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on revenues 23
Figure 3.3. Companies reporting a significant decline of revenues, by size 23
Figure 3.4. Company measures affecting the workforce 24
Figure 3.5. Resilience of companies, by size 25
Figure 3.6. Companies with access to external funding, by size 25
Figure 5.1. Covid-19 and the world of work: policy responses 37
Figure 5.2. Priority support requested by enterprises (three choices allowed) 38
Figure 5.3. Companies applying for government support measures (share by size) 39
Figure 5.4. Type of support that enterprises would like to receive from banks and other financial institutions 40
Figure 5.5. Eligibility criteria that left enterprises dissatisfied 41
Figure 5.6. Generosity of employment retention schemes for individual workers along the wage distribution 43
Boxes
Box 4.1. Abuse of the termination of employment by agreement: the so-called "blank dismissal note" 30
Box 4.2. A legal vacuum during the crisis: "absence from work" 35