Title page
Contents
Acknowledgements 6
Abstract 7
Executive summary 8
Background 8
Overview of findings 10
Implications 10
Literature review 12
Developing theory 14
Grievance-fuelled violence 17
Modelling grievance 24
Methods 25
Systematic review 25
Model characteristics 29
Interviews and focus groups 29
Data collection 30
Data analysis 31
Results 35
Associations 36
Predictive modelling 38
Interactions 39
Coefficient diagram 48
Discussion 50
Limitations 55
Implications 57
Conclusion 59
References 60
Appendix A: Grievance-fuelled violence codebook 73
Appendix B: Offender characteristics 87
Appendix C: Network characteristics 89
Appendix D: Proximity coefficient matrix 94
Table 1. Initial search terms 26
Table 2. Search strings employed during systematic review 27
Table 3. Continuum of reliability 31
Table 4. Behavioural sequence matrix 34
Table 5. Offender characteristics (all offenders) 35
Table 6. Bivariate outcomes comparing grievance-fuelled and non-grievance-fuelled offenders 37
Table 7. Logistic regression output 39
Figure 1. Systematic review process 28
Figure 2. Network graphs for non-grievance-fuelled (left) and grievance-fuelled (right) offenders 38
Figure 3. Interaction between prejudices and instability in living conditions 40
Figure 4. Interaction between deteriorating living conditions and preoccupation 40
Figure 5. Interaction between instability in living conditions and prejudices 41
Figure 6. Interaction between prejudices and expression of needs 41
Figure 7. Interaction between prejudices and preoccupation 42
Figure 8. Interaction between revenge and anger 42
Figure 9. Interaction between revenge and preoccupation 43
Figure 10. Interaction between emotional problems and expression of needs 43
Figure 11. Interaction between emotional problems and preoccupation 44
Figure 12. Interaction between anger and revenge 44
Figure 13. Interaction between anger and preoccupation 45
Figure 14. Interaction between expression of needs and prejudices 45
Figure 15. Interaction between expression of needs and emotional problems 46
Figure 16. Interaction between preoccupation and deterioration in living conditions 46
Figure 17. Interaction between preoccupation and revenge 47
Figure 18. Interaction between preoccupation and emotional problems 47
Figure 19. Interaction between preoccupation and anger 48
Figure 20. Proximity coefficient graph 49
Table B1. Characteristics of grievance-fuelled violence offenders 87
Table C1. Non-grievance-fuelled offenders weights matrix 90
Table C2. Grievance-fuelled offenders weights matrix 90
Table D1. Proximity coefficient matrix for grievance-fuelled offenders 94
Figure C1. Centrality measure outputs for non-grievance-fuelled (left) and grievance-fuelled (right) network analyses 91
Figure C2. Edge stability measure outputs for non-grievance-fuelled offenders 92
Figure C3. Edge stability measure outputs for grievance-fuelled offenders 93