Title page
Contents
Abstract 1
Methodology 3
Results 6
Discussion 13
References 15
Appendix 17
Table 1. Proportion and number of offences by OMCG affiliates, by time period and region 7
Table 2. Proportion and number of OMCG affiliates who committed at least one offence, by time period and region 7
Table 3. Mean geographic distance between offences and the centre point of the conflict region and evaluation metrics for k-means 8
Table 4. ARIMA model parameters 9
Figure 1. ARIMA model for recorded offences by both conflict clubs in the conflict region, January 2010 to October 2017 10
Figure 2. ARIMA model for offences by non-conflict clubs in the conflict region, January 2010 to October 2017 11
Figure 3. ARIMA model for offences by both conflict clubs in the spillover region 12
Figure 4. ARIMA model for offences by both conflict clubs across NSW, excluding conflict and spillover regions 13
Figure A1. ARIMA model for all recorded offences by both conflict clubs in the conflict region 17