Title page
Contents
Abstract 4
Resume 5
Introduction 7
Factors that Will Shape the 2023 Election 10
Evolving Electoral Administration 10
Conflict and Social Cleavage 13
Elite Fragmentation 14
Democratic Malaise 16
Parties, Candidates and Campaigns 20
All Progressives Congress 20
People's Democratic Party 23
Labour Party 24
Smaller Parties 26
Election Scenarios 27
Conclusion 29
Table 1. Economic Emphases of Major Campaigns 25
Figure 1. Satisfaction with democracy x Round 17
Figure 2. Results of the 2019 regional elections and scenarios of the 2023 general elections 28
Boxes
Box 1. Historical Context of the Fourth Republic 9
Box 2. Nigerian Election Rules 22