Title page
Contents
Methodology 4
Key findings 5
Table 1. Comparison of AEO Reference case projections with realized outcomes, 1994-2021 8
Table 2. Standard deviations of the forecast errors 10
Table 3. Real gross domestic product growth trends, projected versus actual 11
Table 4a-4b. Imported refiner acquisition cost of crude oil, projected versus actual 14
Table 5. Total petroleum and other liquids consumption, projected versus actual 18
Table 6. Domestic crude oil production, projected versus actual 20
Table 7. Petroleum net imports, projected versus actual 22
Table 8a-8b. Natural gas price, electric power sector, actual versus projected 24
Table 9. Total natural gas consumption, projected versus actual 28
Table 10. Dry natural gas production, projected versus actual 30
Table 11. Natural gas net imports, projected versus actual 32
Table 12a-12b. Coal prices to electric generating plants, projected versus actual 34
Table 13. Total coal consumption, projected versus actual 38
Table 14. Coal production excluding waste coal, projected versus actual 40
Table 15a-15b. Average electricity prices, projected versus actual (constant dollars) 42
Table 16. Total electricity sales excluding direct use, projected versus actual 46
Table 17. Solar net generation (all sectors), projected versus actual 48
Table 18. Wind net generation (all sectors), projected versus actual 50
Table 19. Conventional hydroelectric power net generation (all sectors), projected versus actual 52
Table 20. Coal net generation (all sectors), projected versus actual 54
Table 21. Natural gas net generation (all sectors), projected versus actual 56
Table 22. Nuclear net generation (all sectors), projected versus actual 58
Table 23. Total energy consumption (all sectors), projected versus actual 60
Table 24. Total delivered residential energy consumption, projected versus actual 62
Table 25. Total delivered commercial energy consumption, projected versus actual 64
Table 26. Total delivered industrial energy consumption, projected versus actual 66
Table 27. Total delivered transportation energy consumption, projected versus actual 68
Table 28. Total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, projected versus actual 70
Table 29. Energy intensity, projected versus actual 72