Title page
Contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10
1. CARBON NEUTRALITY AGENDA FOR UKRAINE 18
1.1. Country Overview, Energy and Emissions Trends 18
1.2. Energy and Environmental Policy Landscape, Governement Decarbonization Efforts 22
1.3. Economic and Energy Consequences of the Russian Aggression 24
2. MODELLING AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS APPROACH 29
2.1. Modelling Approach 29
2.2. General Framework Conditions for Scenario Analisys 30
2.3. Scenarios Description 40
3. PERSPECTIVE ENERGY SYSTEM OF UKRAINE: MODELLING RESULTS 43
3.1. Primary Energy 43
4. POWER AND HEAT SECTOR 55
4.1. Reaching Carbon Neutrality in Power and Heat Generation 55
4.2. Building a Resilient Power System in Ukraine 58
5. DECARBONIZATION IN INDUSTRY 66
5.1. Priority Areas for Investments 66
5.2. Promising Investment Attraction Mechanisms 67
5.3. Case Studies 68
6. ACCELERATING NET ZERO TRANSPORTATION 70
7. NATURAL GAS SECTOR IN CARBON-NEUTRAL ECONOMY 74
8. MODERN ROLE OF BIOENERGY 76
8.1. Expected Demand for Biofuel in Ukraine 76
8.2. Biomass Market and Infrastructure 78
9. HYDROGEN REVOLUTION 85
ANNEX - ASSUMED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE COSTS ACROSS TECHNOLOGIES 90
TABLE 2.1. Production drop and loss of assets in industry in 2022 33
TABLE 2.2. Selected demand drivers in manufacturing 34
TABLE 8.1. Priority areas for investments within low-carbon energy transition of Ukraine 79
TABLE 8.2. Production and consumption of biofuels in Ukraine, kt 81
FIGURE 1. Total primary energy supply by energy source, million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe), Ukraine 2000-2020 10
FIGURE 2. Total primary energy supply (mtoe), Ukraine 1990-2022 10
FIGURE 3. Total primary energy supply (mtoe), carbon neutrality & reference scenarios, Ukraine 2020-2050 11
FIGURE 4. Power generation capacity (gigawatts, GW), reference & carbon neutrality scenarios, Ukraine 2020-2050 11
FIGURE 5. Electricity production (gigawatt hours, GWh), reference & carbon neutrality scenarios, Ukraine 2020-2050 12
FIGURE 6. Final energy consumption by fuel (mtoe), reference & carbon neutrality scenarios, Ukraine 2020-2050 12
FIGURE 7. Final energy consumption by sector (kilotonnes of oil equivalent, ktoe), reference & carbon neutrality scenarios, Ukraine 2020-2050 13
FIGURE 8. Primary energy import dependence, reference & carbon neutrality scenarios, Ukraine 2020-2050 13
FIGURE 9. Energy intensity by sector (kilograms of oil equivalent, kgoe), reference & carbon neutrality scenarios, Ukraine 2020-2050 14
FIGURE 10. Average annual investments (billion EUR), reference & carbon neutrality scenarios, Ukraine 2020-2050 14
FIGURE 11. Percentage change of investments in power generation by energy source, carbon neutrality scenario, Ukraine 2020-2050 15
FIGURE 1.1. Energy intensity in industry (left) and residential buildings (right) 19
FIGURE 1.2. Carbon intensity of the energy production in Ukraine 1985-2020 19
FIGURE 1.3. Total primary energy supply by energy source, million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe), Ukraine 2000-2020 20
FIGURE 1.4. Average daily electricity demand in Ukraine (from October 27, 2021, to October 2, 2022) 24
FIGURE 1.5. Daily electricity mix in Ukraine (from October 27, 2021, to October 27, 2022) 25
FIGURE 2.1. Demographic development in the world, Europe and Ukraine 31
FIGURE 2.2. GDP projection 32
FIGURE 2.3. Gross value added by sector 34
FIGURE 2.4. Gross value added in manufacturing 35
FIGURE 2.5. Gross value added in services 36
FIGURE 2.6. Total floor area of residential buildings 37
FIGURE 2.7. Selected energy demand drivers in the residential sector 37
FIGURE 2.8. Passenger turnover 38
FIGURE 2.9. Freight turnover 39
FIGURE 2.10. Commodity prices forecast 39
FIGURE 2.11. Assumed dynamics of GHG emissions 40
FIGURE 2.12. GHG emissions cap by scenario 42
FIGURE 3.1. Total primary energy supply in the reference scenario 43
FIGURE 3.2. Total primary energy supply in the carbon neutrality scenario 44
FIGURE 3.3. Power generation installed capacity in the reference scenario 44
FIGURE 3.4. Power generation installed capacity in the carbon neutrality scenario 45
FIGURE 3.5. Electricity generation by fuel in the reference scenario 46
FIGURE 3.6. Electricity generation by fuel in the carbon neutrality scenario 46
FIGURE 3.7. Heat generation by fuel in the reference scenario 47
FIGURE 3.8. Heat generation by fuel in the carbon neutrality scenario 47
FIGURE 3.9. Energy demand by fuel 48
FIGURE 3.10. Energy demand by sector 48
FIGURE 3.11. Energy demand in industry by fuel 49
FIGURE 3.12. Energy demand in buildings sector by fuel 49
FIGURE 3.13. Energy demand in transport sector by fuel 50
FIGURE 3.14. GHG emissions in the reference scenario 50
FIGURE 3.15. GHG emissions in the carbon neutrality scenario 51
FIGURE 3.16. Total investment needs by scenario 52
FIGURE 3.17. Investment needs without consumer expenses 53
FIGURE 3.18. Investment needs in demand sectors 53
FIGURE 3.19. Investment needs in power generation sector in the reference scenario 54
FIGURE 3.20. Investment needs in power generation sector in the carbon neutrality scenario 54
FIGURE 9.1. Low-carbon fuel production under the carbon neutrality scenario 87
FIGURE 9.2. The use of clean synthetic methane by sector under the carbon neutrality scenario 87
FIGURE 9.3. The use of clean hydrogen by sector under the carbon neutrality scenario 88
Boxes
BOX 1. Types of Hydrogen 85
Annex Tables
TABLE A.1. Extension of the operational life of existing units of NPPs 90
TABLE A.2. New big units of NPPs (1000-1200 MW) 90
TABLE A.3. New small nuclear reactors (160 MW) 90
TABLE A.4. Gas TPPs 91
TABLE A.5. Bioenergy TPPs 91
TABLE A.6. Gas TPPs with CCS 92
TABLE A.7. Coal TPPs 93
TABLE A.8. Extension of the operational life of existing coal TPPs 93
TABLE A.9. Coal TPPs with CCS 93
TABLE A.10. Bioenergy CHPs 94
TABLE A.11. Gas CHPs 95
TABLE A.12. Gas CHPs with CCS 95
TABLE A.13. Coal CHPs 95
TABLE A.14. Extension of the operational lifetime of existing CHPs 96
TABLE A.15. Fuel cells power plants 96
TABLE A.16. Solar power plants 96
TABLE A.17. Wind power plants 97
TABLE A.18. Hydro power plants 97
TABLE A.19. Geothermal power plants 98
TABLE A.20. Storage electricity technologies 98
TABLE A.21. Hydrogen technologies 98