표제지

초록

목차

Ⅰ. 서론 13

1. 문제제기 13

2. 연구 목적 및 내용 15

3. 연구의 방법 및 범위 17

Ⅱ. 테러리즘과 WMD 테러리즘 19

1. 테러리즘 19

1) 개념의 모호성(모糊性) 19

2) 테러리즘의 조직·전술의 다양성 24

3) 테러리즘의 시대적 전개 32

2. 글로벌리즘과 뉴테러리즘 37

1) 테러리즘의 과학화와 세계화 37

2) 뉴테러리즘의 양상 40

3. WMD와 WMD 테러리즘 43

1) 현 단계 최종 무기체계로서의 WMD 43

가. 핵무기의 위협 46

나. 생화학무기의 위협 51

2) 현 단계 최종 테러리즘으로서의 WMD 테러리즘 58

Ⅲ. WMD 테러리즘의 확산 가능성 65

1. WMD의 위협 및 확산 65

1) WMD 확산의 국제정치적 환경 65

2) WMD 확산 사례 69

가. 핵무기의 확산 69

나. 생물무기의 확산 84

다. 화학무기의 확산 90

3) 테러지원 국가와 WMD 92

가. 북한의 WMD 현황과 위협 98

나. 이란의 WMD 현황과 위협 102

다. 시리아의 WMD 현황과 위협 106

2. WMD 확산과 테러리스트 109

1) 테러리스트의 접근 용이성 109

2) WMD의 트래피킹(Trafficking) 111

3. WMD 테러리즘을 시사하는 사례 114

1) 핵·방사능 테러리즘 115

2) 생물무기 테러리즘 121

가. 소규모 사건·사고 사례 121

나. 탄저균 배달 사건 123

3) 화학무기 테러리즘 128

가. 소규모 화학 테러리즘 및 사고 사례 128

나. 동경 지하철 사린 살포 사건 131

4. WMD 테러리즘의 모방틀로서의 9·11 137

1) WMD 테러리즘의 메카니즘 140

2) 피해 규모와 영향 144

가. 피해 규모 144

나. 영향 145

3) WMD - 9·11 시나리오 150

가. 핵무기 시나리오 150

나. 생물무기 시나리오 156

다. 화학무기 시나리오 159

Ⅳ. WMD 테러리즘에 대한 대응과 한계 161

1. 대응 여건의 현 단계 161

2. 대응 사례(事例) 168

1) 핵무기 확산에 대한 대응과 한계(限界) 168

2) 생화학무기 확산에 대한 대응과 한계 178

가. 생물무기 180

나. 화학무기 186

3. 현 단계 최종 대응체제로서의 PSI와 한계 190

Ⅴ. 결론 196

참고문헌 200

ABSTRACT 221

감사의 글 225

〈표 2-1〉 1968-2007/06의 지역별 단체 수 28

〈표 2-2〉 1968-2007/06의 그룹별 특성 29

〈표 2-3〉 1968-2007/06의 사망자 100명 이상 사건 피해 규모 비교 29

〈표 2-4〉 테러 유형에 따른 실현 가능성과 실제 발생 상황 비교 45

〈표 2-5〉 히로시마형과 나가사키형 위력 비교 47

〈표 2-6〉 핵폭발 위력과 영향 범위 49

〈표 2-7〉 재래식 무기와 WMD의 위력 비교 55

〈표 2-8〉 WMD 무기 효능 비교 55

〈표 2-9〉 전 세계 대량살상무기(WMD) 위협 조사 분석 57

〈표 3-1〉 핵무기 보유국 분류 81

〈표 3-2〉 각국의 핵무기 보유 현황 82

〈표 3-3〉 각국의 플루토늄보유량(2004년 말 기준) 83

〈표 3-4〉 생물무기 보유 및 보유가능국가 89

〈표 3-5〉 화학무기 보유 및 보유 가능국가 91

〈표 3-6〉 DPRK's Special Weapons Facilities 101

〈표 3-7〉 Iran's Special Weapons Facilities 104

〈표 3-8〉 Syria's Special Weapons Facilities 108

〈표 3-9〉 미 탄저균 테러 일정별 현황(2001. 11. 14 기준) 127

〈표 3-10〉 노선별 오염지역 및 피해 현황 133

〈표 3-11〉 생화학 작용제를 사용한 주요 테러 135

〈표 3-12〉 15가지 방법 시나리오(List of Scenarios) 151

〈표 3-13〉 표면 폭발시 피해 거리 155

〈표 3-14〉 사상자 수(명) 155

〈표 3-15〉 공중 폭발시 피해 거리 155

〈표 3-16〉 사상자 수(명) 156

〈표 3-17〉 피해 규모 160

〈표 4-1〉 미국 주도의 WMD 확산 방지 관련 조치 167

〈표 4-2〉 PSI 차단 원칙 192

〈표 4-3〉 대량살상무기 확산 방지 관련 안보리 결의 193

The 21st century has started out with hope of a new peaceful world, but a accident 9/11 has changed fundamentally international security structure. Especially the new terrorism - the threat of mass destruction and fear - has emerged in the international security community.

In the global age, various powers have replaced each other struggling for power, conflict and violence has never ceased. The weak always continue to use violence against the strong in order to change the status quo. This type of act of violence, as the strong name, is called terrorism.

As the Cold War tensions faded away, international order has been changing ever since as a new paradigm. Also, a new type of terrorism which is very different from the age of the Cold War has evolved, and its threat is growing rapidly.

On the contrary to the previous terrorism, new terrorism has its various goals with a single mass destruction while acting in secrecy. A new terrorism holds the concept of universal terror, meaning mass destruction.

Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) - nuclear, radiological, biological, and chemical - enable adversaries to inflict massive harm on the world. Terrorist groups are seeking to acquire WMD with the stated purpose of killing large numbers of people and those of friends and allies without compunction and without warning.

Today's international community is most concerned with the occurrence of WMD terrorism. This is because WMD's colossal damage and destruction ability cause 'the quick envy the dead' due to the long term damage caused.

On these circumstances, This research includes nuclear and radiation, biological and chemical warfare related to WMD, and the final form of terrorism which this research acknowledges its deadly influence and the countermeasures that need to take place.

As terrorism adapts to globalization which is becoming more and more homogeneous, mutual, and network centric, with new technology we are able to attain technological information relating to the WMD. The dissemination of the WMD can be confirmed through newly gained information and the various accidents across the globe.

The purpose of this study is to examine the WMD terrorism and its increasing chance of dissemination. To do this, this research concentrates on the period after the fall of the Soviet Union, mainly the WMD terror activities which includes nuclear, radioactivity, and bio-chemical warfare and measures its strength and damage.

In the post Cold War period, the WMD has become a top priority in security of the international community. Many international agreements, such as the NPT, BWC, CWC, PSI etc. which regulate WMD exist, however some parts of the world are reluctant in joining, and even if they are part of the agreement the rules are not obeyed correctly.

The main problem is that there is no strict international regime to regulate these nations effectively. Biological warfare has also not changed drastically, however after accident 9/11 the fear of the international community in biological and chemical warfare has increased. Therefore it is very likely that biological and chemical warfare could actually take place.

The international community must work together so that those groups do not have possession of WMD. The reality is, it is difficult to find a common answer and an understanding between nations, as well as money issues. However it is crucial in finding a new international law and a consensus which can prevent WMD terrorism.

As to the BWC, an urgent thing that needs to be solved is a system which can clearly separate the 'neutral' and 'harmful' biological agonists.

Concerning to Chemical weapons that regulated by the CWC, there is an obligation to report the necessary chemical facilities despite some countries ignore this policy.

The PSI, which was formed to prevent the dissemination of WMD, works together with nations in order to stop the WMD technology leak, and include the Army, Navy, and Airforce of that typical country to stop the transportation of WMD. There is also search limits in land routes as well. In order to make this a efficient search, it is necessary for the PSI to overcome these obstacles.

Today, there is high probability of groups performing terrorist activities. This problem cannot be solved just by increasing national security.

Now, there has to be solution for growing rivalry to attain WMD between 3rd world countries and terrorist groups. In order for everyone to survive in a peaceful world there has to be a positive attitude and an understanding of the weak. This may be the last solution left.

We should not permit the world’'s most dangerous regimes and terrorists to threaten international order with the world’'s most destructive weapons. We must accord the highest priority to the protection of the Earth. from the existing and growing WMD threat.

Finally there are some elements in this research that needs more explanation and study. further.

Firstly, the international community has strong nations and weak nations, and a discussion about this problem has not yet taken place.

Secondly, the WMD excludes missiles as a weapon of mass destruction. I will further study the excluding of missiles, where missiles can be a deadly weapon as well along with the chemical and biological weapons.