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Abstract 12
서론 : 역학의 일반적 개념 14
제1장 국내 주요 인수공통전염병의 역학적 연구 29
I. 서론 30
1. 고병원성 조류인플루엔자 (HPAI) 31
2. 브루셀라병 32
3. 광견병 32
4. 결핵병 33
5. 돼지 신종 인플루엔자 34
II. 재료 및 방법 35
1. 연구재료 35
2. 연구방법 36
III. 결과 38
1. 동물 질병 모니터링 및 감시 시스템 38
2. 주요 인수공통전염병의 역학적 접근 전략 39
3. 주요 인수공통전염병의 관리 및 향후 발생 전망 69
IV. 고찰 72
V. 결론 80
제2장 한국의 고병원성 조류인플루엔자(H5N1) 유행의 역학적 특성 비교 82
I. 서론 83
II. 재료 및 방법 85
III. 결과 87
1. 2003/2004년 HPAI 유행 87
2. 2006/2007년 HPAI 유행 90
3. 2008년 HPAI 유행 93
4. 2003/2004년, 2006/2007년, 2008년 HPAI 유행의 공통점 및 차이점 94
IV. 고찰 99
V. 결론 103
제3장 한국의 고병원성 조류인플루엔자(H5N1)의 병리역학적 특성 104
I. 서론 105
II. 재료 및 방법 106
1. 동물 106
2. 병리조직학적 검사 106
3. 면역조직화학염색 107
III. 결과 108
1. 임상 증상 108
2. 부검 소견 110
3. 병리조직학적 소견 117
4. 면역조직학적 소견 128
IV. 고찰 132
V. 결론 135
제4장 한국의 고병원성 조류인플루엔자(H5N1) 유입에 대한 환경생태 영향평가 136
I. 서론 137
II. 재료 및 방법 139
1. 연구 재료 139
2. 연구방법 140
III. 결과 141
1. 세계의 온난화 141
2. 한반도의 기후 온난화 143
3. 세계의 철새 flyway 145
4. 연도별 겨울철새의 국내 서식현황 147
5. HPAI 예찰을 위한 야생조류 포획 148
IV. 고찰 154
V. 결론 158
제5장 고병원성 조류인플루엔자 유입 및 전파 예측 모델 구축 159
I. 서론 160
II. 재료 및 방법 161
1. 시뮬레이션 수행을 위한 연구 재료 161
2. 연구 방법 163
III. 결과 165
1. 유입 가능성 예측시뮬레이션 165
2. HPAI 전파 분석 175
IV. 고찰 180
V. 결론 183
종합결론 185
1. 주요 인수공통전염병의 향후 발생전망 185
2. 주요 인수공통전염병의 방역 방법에 대한 정책적 고려 필요사항 186
3. 앞으로 수의역학의 나아갈 방향 188
참고문헌 191
요약문 210
〈Table 1-1〉Number of Rabies by species from 1993 to 2009 40
〈Table 1-2〉Number of Brucellosis by species from 2000 to 2009 41
〈Table 1-3〉Number of Tuberculosis by species from 2000 to 2009 42
〈Table 1-4〉Number of human patients suffering from major zoonotic diseases 44
〈Table 1-5〉Criteria of risk assessment for HPAI introduction 47
〈Table 1-6〉Criteria of risk assessment by the degree of contamination 47
〈Table 1-7〉Relations between outbreak of brucellosis and habitual way of purchasing cows 53
〈Table 1-8〉Relations between outbreak of brucellosis and habitual way of purchasing cows 54
〈Table 1-9〉Sample size of the statistical surveillance for proving no occurrence among Korean domestic cattle 56
〈Table 1-10〉Statistical analysis of test technique on a level of herd and head by predicting model 57
〈Table 1-11〉List of outbreak swine farms in Republic of Korea 62
〈Table 1-12〉Genetic homogeny of positive domestic swine and domestic & foreign human isolations 68
〈Table 1-13〉Categorization of direct and indirect causes for the outbreak of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Korean domestic swine farms 69
〈Table 1-14〉Management plan for major zoonosis and future tendency of outbreak 71
〈Table 1-15〉Foreign cases of Novel influenza A(H1N1) infection to pigs 77
〈Table 2-1〉Comparison of characteristics of HPAI outbreaks in Korea by year 96
〈Table 3-1〉The comparison of the chronological characteristics of HPAI outbreaks in duck 127
〈Table 3-2〉Histological review on HPAI infected chicken and duck in Korea, 2008 129
〈Table 3-3〉Distribution of antigen against HPAI virus from domestic chicken and duck in 2008 130
〈Table 3-4〉Histopathological difference among HPAI infected ducks by year of outbreak 131
〈Table 4-1〉Inhabiting status of winter birds in Republic of Korea by year 147
〈Table 4-2〉Detecting rate of AI antigen and antibody by region 149
〈Table 4-3〉Detecting rate of AI antigen and antibody by viral types 151
〈Table 4-4〉Detecting rate of antigen and antibody against AI virus by types of migratory birds 152
〈Table 5-1〉Explanation of used techniques 161
〈Table 5-2〉List of used H/W and S/W 162
〈Table 5-3〉List of HPAI sensitive migratory birds 166
〈Table 5-4〉Criteria for indicating the degree of risk on map 175
〈Table 5-5〉Types of transmitting factors 176
〈Table 5-6〉Types of farm 176
〈Fig. 1-1〉Diagram of basic factors inducing outbreak of diseases 17
〈Fig. 1-2〉Components of Veterinary Epidemiology and its functions 25
〈Fig. 1-3〉Flow charts for deducing statistical results by AIMS(Agricultural Information Management Standards) in Korea 39
〈Fig. 1-4〉Map of HPAI outbreak in Jeonbuk province from 2006 to 2007 46
〈Fig. 1-5〉Risk assessment of the 4th outbreak farm for HPAI from 2006 to 2007 48
〈Fig. 1-6〉Estimation of transmitting aspect of HPAI among chicken group 49
〈Fig. 1-7〉Relative risk rate of Brucellosis by region from 2000 to 2006 51
〈Fig. 1-8〉Analysis of transmitting factors on outbreak farms of bovine brucellosis 51
〈Fig. 1-9〉Outbreak points of Rabies from 1993 to 2004 58
〈Fig. 1-10〉The aspect of outbreak of Rabies by season 59
〈Fig. 1-11〉Distribution map of total 17 swine farms infected by Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in the Republic of Korea 61
〈Fig. 1-12〉Ratio of ILI patients to outpatients 63
〈Fig. 1-13〉Comparison of elapsed time after artificial infection by Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 to Swine influenza 65
〈Fig. 1-14〉Flow chart for pig producing system of No. 13 farm 66
〈Fig. 1-15〉Status of consignment related to No. 1, 2, 6 farms 67
〈Fig. 2-1〉Epidemic curve of HPAI outbreak farms(a) and infected heads(b) in Korea, 2003 and 2004 88
〈Fig. 2-2〉Map of HPAI outbreaks in 2003 and 2004(a) map of HPAI outbreaks in 2006 and 2007(b). 89
〈Fig. 2-3〉Epidemic curve of HPAI outbreak farms in Korea(a) and infected heads(b) in 2006 and 2007 91
〈Fig. 2-4〉Relations between geographical distance and genetic homogeny of 110 pairs of HA from 2 infected farms in 2006 and 2007 92
〈Fig. 2-5〉Distribution map of HPAI outbreak farms in Korea, 2008 93
〈Fig. 2-6〉Epidemic curve of HPAI outbreak farms(a) and infected heads(b) in Korea, 2008 94
〈Fig. 2-7〉Comparison of phylogenetic of HPAI in Korea by year 98
〈Fig. 3-1〉Gross examination of HPAI infected chicken 109
〈Fig. 3-2〉Gross examination of internal organs in HPAI infected chicken 110
〈Fig. 3-3〉Gross examination on internal organs of HPAI infected duck in 2008 111
〈Fig. 3-4〉Gross examination on lungs of HPAI infected chicken 112
〈Fig. 3-5〉Gross examination on stomach of HPAI infected chicken in 2003 113
〈Fig. 3-6〉Gross examination on abdominal organs on HPAl infected chicken in 2008 113
〈Fig. 3-7〉Gross examination on pancreas of HPAI infected chicken in 2008 114
〈Fig. 3-8〉Gross examination on pancreas of HPAI infected duck in 2003 115
〈Fig. 3-9〉Gross examination on abdominal organs of HPAI infected chicken in 2003 116
〈Fig. 3-10〉Gross examination on genital organs of HPAI infected chicken in 2008 116
〈Fig. 3-11〉Gross examination on leg muscle of HPAI infected chicken in 2003/2004 117
〈Fig. 3-12〉Histopathological examination on CNS of HPAI infected chicken in 2008 119
〈Fig. 3-13〉Histopathological examination and immunochemical staining on cerebellum of HPAI infected chicken in 2008 120
〈Fig. 3-14〉Histopathological examination on brain of HPAI infected duck in 2008 121
〈Fig. 3-15〉Histopathological examination and immunochemical staining on heart of HPAI infected chicken in 2008 122
〈Fig. 3-16〉Histopathological examination on muscle of HPAI infected duck in 2008 123
〈Fig. 3-17〉Histopathological examination on heart of HPAI infected duck in 2008 124
〈Fig. 3-18〉Histopathological examination on speen and liver of HPAI infected duck in 2008 125
〈Fig. 3-19〉Histopathological examination on lungs of HPAI infected chicken in 2008 126
〈Fig. 4-1〉Climate and its change of the world 142
〈Fig. 4-2〉Tendency of change in frequency of heavy rain in the world 142
〈Fig. 4-3〉Tendency of change in the amount of rainfall and temperature in Republic of Korea 143
〈Fig. 4-4〉Change in weather of Seoul 144
〈Fig. 4-5〉Change in freezing period of lakes by each lake and year 145
〈Fig. 4-6〉Route of migratory birds in the world 146
〈Fig. 4-7〉Major inhabiting regions of winter birds in Korea 148
〈Fig. 4-8〉Capturing status of wild birds for the surveillance of HPAI 150
〈Fig. 4-9〉Inhabiting types of captured wild birds 150
〈Fig. 4-10〉Detecting rate of AI antigen and antibody by regions 151
〈Fig. 4-11〉Detecting rate of antigen and antibody by AI viral types 152
〈Fig. 4-12〉Detecting rate of antigen and antibody against AI virus by types of wild birds 153
〈Fig. 4-13〉Prospect of subtropical climate in Republic of Korea 154
〈Fig. 4-14〉Scenario of climate in Korea 155
〈Fig. 5-1〉Parameters for predicting the possibility of HPAI outbreak 165
〈Fig. 5-2〉Example: map of cause and effect for calculating probability of HPAI introduction to Korea (migratory bird) 167
〈Fig. 5-3〉Example: Map of cause and effect for calculating probability of HPAI introduction to Korea(foreign worker) 167
〈Fig. 5-4〉Example: Map of influx of routes of introduction and transferring to Korea (migratory birds) 168
〈Fig. 5-5〉Migratory route (northern west to eastern south) calculated by map of influx 169
〈Fig. 5-6〉Example: Simulation for producing the possibility of HPAI outbreak as the migration of wild birds 170
〈Fig. 5-7〉Example: Simulation for producing the possibility of HPAI outbreak 171
〈Fig. 5-8〉Result of Simulation showing the possibility of HPAI outbreak 171
〈Fig. 5-9〉Example: Simulating the route of migratory birds 172
〈Fig. 5-10〉Example: Simulation for producing the possibility of HPAI outbreak among two farms per year 173
〈Fig. 5-11〉Example: Simulation for producing the possibility of HPAI outbreak by region 174
〈Fig. 5-12〉The degree of risk for HPAI introduction on GIS map 175
〈Fig. 5-13〉The model of cause and effect for simulating HPAI introduction and transmission 177
〈Fig. 5-14〉Example: Simulation for analyzing the introduction of HPAI 178
〈Fig. 5-15〉Example: Simulation for analyzing the transmission of HPAI 179
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