표제지

제출문

요약문

목차

I. 서론 15

1장 연구 배경 및 필요성 15

2장 연구 목적 16

II. 연구내용 및 방법 18

1장 과업의 범위 18

2장 연구추진체계 19

3장 조사 및 분석방법 20

1절 동아시아 국가별 사회, 경제, 에너지 수급계획 등 기초통계자료 구축 및 기준년도 설정 20

2절 기후변화 유발물질(LLGHGs, SLCP) 및 대기오염물질 배출자료 목록 DB 구축 22

3절 국가별 기준년도 배출량 산정을 위한 배출모델 선정 및 활용 32

4절 동아시아 지역의 기존 배출량 자료 현황 37

III. 연구결과 및 고찰 43

1장 동아시아 국가별 사회, 경제, 에너지 수급계획 등 기초통계자료 구축 및 기준년도 설정 43

1절 국제 에너지 통계자료 분석 43

2절 국가 에너지 통계자료 분석 48

2장 기후변화 유발물질(LLGHGs, SLCP) 및 대기오염물질 배출자료 목록 DB 구축 50

1절 중국 에너지 통계자료가 반영된 에너지사용량 및 배출량 비교 50

2절 북한 에너지 통계자료가 반영된 에너지사용량 및 배출량 비교 62

3절 몽골 에너지 통계자료가 반영된 에너지사용량 및 배출량 비교 69

4절 러시아 에너지 통계자료가 반영된 에너지사용량 및 배출량 비교 76

3장 국가별 기준년도 배출량 산정을 위한 배출모델 선정 및 활용 84

1절 MEGAN모형을 활용한 아시아 지역의 식생 배출 목록 구축 84

2절 SMOKE-Asia 연계성 검토 및 GAINS-Korea 보완 99

4장 동아시아 지역의 기존 배출량 자료와의 비교 분석 104

5장 시사점 및 개선책 112

IV. 기대성과(활용방안) 또는 향후계획 113

V. 성과 114

VI. 참고문헌 115

VII. 부록 119

Table 2-1. Downloadable GAINS dataset 26

Table 2-2. Environmental regulations of the Chinese national government to reduce NOx... 30

Table 2-3. Previous biogenic emission inventories built in global scale 33

Table 2-4. Previous anthropogenic Asian emission inventories 39

Table 2-5. Summary of the MICS-Asia Asian anthropogenic emission inventory 41

Table 3-1. Control efficiency of Technologies on Heavy duty trucks and buses / GAS, GSL, LPG 56

Table 3-2. Control efficiency of Technologies on Heavy duty trucks and buses / Diesel 57

Table 3-3. Control efficiency of Technologies on light commercial trucks / GAS, GSL, LPG 58

Table 3-4. Control efficiency of Technologies on light commercial trucks / Diesel 58

Table 3-5. Control efficiency of NOx reduction technologies on coal power plants 59

Table 3-6. Control efficiency of PM reduction technologies on coal power plants 60

Table 3-7. Characteristics of MEGAN v2.10 input data 87

Table 3-8. Configuration for MEGAN modeling 88

Table 3-9. Domain Characteristics 89

Table 3-10. Biogenic isoprene emissions across the countries in Asia(2015) 93

Table 3-11. Biogenic monoterpene emissions across the countries in Asia(2015) 94

Table 3-12. Biogenic isoprene emissions across the countries in Asia(2009) 96

Table 3-13. Biogenic monoterpene emissions across the countries in Asia(2009) 96

Table 3-14. Global and Asia biogenic emissions 97

Table 3-15. Example of CREATE Inventory 100

Table 3-16. SCC Mapping CREATE to SMOKE-Asia 100

Table 3-17. SMOKE IDA format for PTINV 101

Table 3-18. The major sector of Industrial processes in GAINS 103

Table 7-1. Energy consumption by fuels / activities in 2015 119

Table 7-2. Energy consumption by sectors in 2015 120

Table 7-3. China's emissions by fuels / activities in 2015 121

Table 7-4. China's emissions by sectors in 2015 122

Table 7-5. North Korea's emissions by fuels / activities in 2015 123

Table 7-6. North Korea's emissions by sectors in 2015 124

Table 7-7. Mongolia's emissions by fuels / activities in 2015 125

Table 7-8. Mongolia's emissions by sectors in 2015 126

Table 7-9. Russia's emissions by fuels / activities in 2015(Asia regions) 127

Table 7-10. Russia's emissions by sectors in 2015(Asia regions) 128

Fig. 2-1. Research System 19

Fig. 2-2. Energy Balance flows of IEA 21

Fig. 2-3. Energy Balance tables of IEA 21

Fig. 2-4. Energy consumption table of CSY 22

Fig. 2-5. Flowchart of operations that input statistics into GAINS 23

Fig. 2-6. The GAINS multi-pollutant / multi-effect framework 24

Fig. 2-7. The iterative concept of the GAINS optimization 25

Fig. 2-8. Regional scope of GAINS-Global 27

Fig. 2-9. Regional scope of GAINS-Russia 28

Fig. 2-10. Energy and Mobile sources Input format of GAINS 29

Fig. 2-11. Classification system matching between GAINS and IEA 29

Fig. 2-12. Emission control technoloy input data types in GAINS 32

Fig. 2-13. Schematic methodology of MEGAN processing 34

Fig. 2-14. Examples of comparison with existing emissions inventory data 35

Fig. 2-15. Scheme of the emission modeling system for Asia 36

Fig. 2-16. Flowchart of GAINS-Korea to build baseyear emissions 37

Fig. 2-17. Configuration of MICS-Asia inventory 41

Fig. 2-18. Scheme of CREATE Inventory 42

Fig. 3-1. Total primary energy supply trend in China by IEA statistics 44

Fig. 3-2. Electricity generation trend in China by IEA statistics 44

Fig. 3-3. Total primary energy supply trend in North Korea by IEA statistics 45

Fig. 3-4. Electricity generation trend in North Korea by IEA statistics 45

Fig. 3-5. Total primary energy supply trend in Mongolia by IEA statistics 46

Fig. 3-6. Electricity generation trend in Mongolia by IEA statistics 47

Fig. 3-7. Total primary energy supply trend in Russia by IEA statistics 47

Fig. 3-8. Electricity generation trend in Russia by IEA statistics 48

Fig. 3-9. Total production of Energy by CSY 49

Fig. 3-10. Total Consumption of Energy by CSY 49

Fig. 3-11. 2015 Energy cousumption of China by sectors 51

Fig. 3-12. 2015 Energy cousumption of China by fuels 51

Fig. 3-13. 2015 CO Emissions of China 53

Fig. 3-14. 2015 PM2.5 Emissions of China(이미지참조) 53

Fig. 3-15. 2015 NOx Emissions of China 53

Fig. 3-16. 2015 VOC Emissions of China 53

Fig. 3-17. 2015 SO₂ Emissions of China 53

Fig. 3-18. 2015 NH₃ Emissions of China 53

Fig. 3-19. 2015 CO₂ Emissions of China 55

Fig. 3-20. 2015 CH₄ Emissions of China 55

Fig. 3-21. 2015 N₂O Emissions of China 55

Fig. 3-22. 2015 Hg Emissions of China 55

Fig. 3-23. 2015 BC Emissions of China 55

Fig. 3-24. 2015 OC Emissions of China 55

Fig. 3-25. Control technology penetration on Heavy duty trucks and buses / GAS, GSL, LPG 56

Fig. 3-26. Control technology penetration on Heavy duty trucks and buses / Diesel 56

Fig. 3-27. Control technology penetration on Light commercial trucks / GAS, GSL, LPG 57

Fig. 3-28. Control technology penetration on Light commercial trucks / Diesel 57

Fig. 3-29. Power & district heat plants(COAL) / NOx reduction technologies 59

Fig. 3-30. Modern power plants(COAL) / NOx reduction technologies 59

Fig. 3-31. Power & district heat plants(COAL) / PM reduction technologies 60

Fig. 3-32. Modern power plants(COAL) / PM reduction technologies 60

Fig. 3-33. Ind. Process : Glass production / NOx reduction technologies 61

Fig. 3-34. Ind. Process : Nitric acid / NOx reduction technologies 61

Fig. 3-35. Ind. Process : Glass production / PM reduction technologies 61

Fig. 3-36. Ind. Process : Lime production / PM reduction technologies 61

Fig. 3-37. PM reduction technologies for Industrial Process : Pig iron, blast furnace 62

Fig. 3-38. 2015 Energy consumption of North Korea by sectors 63

Fig. 3-39. 2015 Energy consumption of North Korea by fuels 63

Fig. 3-40. Energy consumption trend of North Korea 64

Fig. 3-41. 2015 CO Emissions of North Korea 66

Fig. 3-42. 2015 PM2.5 Emissions of North Korea(이미지참조) 66

Fig. 3-43. 2015 NOx Emissions of North Korea 66

Fig. 3-44. 2015 VOC Emissions of North Korea 66

Fig. 3-45. 2015 SO₂ Emissions of North Korea 66

Fig. 3-46. 2015 NH₃ Emissions of North Korea 66

Fig. 3-47. 2015 CO₂ Emissions of North Korea 68

Fig. 3-48. 2015 CH₄ Emissions of North Korea 68

Fig. 3-49. 2015 N₂O Emissions of North Korea 68

Fig. 3-50. 2015 Hg Emissions of North Korea 68

Fig. 3-51. 2015 BC Emissions of North Korea 68

Fig. 3-52. 2015 OC Emissions of North Korea 68

Fig. 3-53. 2015 Energy cousumption of Mongolia by sectors 70

Fig. 3-54. 2015 Energy cousumption of Mongolia by fuels 70

Fig. 3-55. Energy consumption trend of Mongolia 70

Fig. 3-56. GDP trend of Mongolia(2005-2015) 71

Fig. 3-57. 2015 CO Emissions of Mongolia 73

Fig. 3-58. 2015 PM2.5 Emissions of Mongolia(이미지참조) 73

Fig. 3-59. 2015 NOx Emissions of Mongolia 73

Fig. 3-60. 2015 VOC Emissions of Mongolia 73

Fig. 3-61. 2015 SO₂ Emissions of Mongolia 73

Fig. 3-62. 2015 NH₃ Emissions of Mongolia 73

Fig. 3-63. 2015 CO₂ Emissions of Mongolia 75

Fig. 3-64. 2015 CH₄ Emissions of Mongolia 75

Fig. 3-65. 2015 N₂O Emissions of Mongolia 75

Fig. 3-66. 2015 Hg Emissions of Mongolia 75

Fig. 3-67. 2015 BC Emissions of Mongolia 75

Fig. 3-68. 2015 OC Emissions of Mongolia 75

Fig. 3-69. 2015 Energy cousumption of Russia by sectors 76

Fig. 3-70. 2015 Energy cousumption of Russia by fuels 76

Fig. 3-71. 2015 CO Emissions of Russia(Asia) 79

Fig. 3-72. 2015 PM2.5 Emissions of Russia(Asia)(이미지참조) 79

Fig. 3-73. 2015 NOx Emissions of Russia(Asia) 79

Fig. 3-74. 2015 VOC Emissions of Russia(Asia) 79

Fig. 3-75. 2015 SO₂ Emissions of Russia(Asia) 79

Fig. 3-76. 2015 NH₃ Emissions of Russia(Asia) 79

Fig. 3-77. 2015 CO₂ Emissions of Russia(Asia) 81

Fig. 3-78. 2015 CH₄ Emissions of Russia(Asia) 81

Fig. 3-79. 2015 N₂O Emissions of Russia(Asia) 81

Fig. 3-80. 2015 Hg Emissions of Russia(Asia) 81

Fig. 3-81. 2015 BC Emissions of Russia(Asia) 81

Fig. 3-82. 2015 OC Emissions of Russia(Asia) 81

Fig. 3-83. Diesel Gasoline LPG vehicle emission reduction technology 82

Fig. 3-84. Gas vehicle emission reduction technology 82

Fig. 3-87. Fuel production & conversion 83

Fig. 3-88. MODIS Plant Functional Type & Leaf Area Index Mosaic and re-projection... 84

Fig. 3-89. MODIS Sinusoidal Tiling system 85

Fig. 3-90. Biogenic input data(PFT, 2013) 86

Fig. 3-91. Biogenic input data(LAI, 2015) 86

Fig. 3-92. Domain for WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model) 87

Fig. 3-93. CREATE 2015 Spatial range of Biogenic emission inventory 88

Fig. 3-94. CREATE 2015 Biogenic emissions Domain Model 89

Fig. 3-95. Biogenic Isoprene 2015 emission 90

Fig. 3-96. Biogenic Monoterpenes 2015 emission 91

Fig. 3-97. Biogenic isoprene emissions in across the countries in Asia(2015) 92

Fig. 3-98. Biogenic monoterpene emissions in across the countries in Asia(2015) 92

Fig. 3-99. Biogenic isoprene emissions in across the countries in Asia(2009) 95

Fig. 3-100. Biogenic monoterpene emissions in across the countries in Asia(2009) 95

Fig. 3-101. Asia biogenic VOC emissions versus global biogenic VOC emissions 97

Fig. 3-102. Comparison of isoprene emissions in Asia(2009, 2015) 98

Fig. 3-103. Comparison of monoterpene emissions in Asia(2009, 2015) 98

Fig. 3-104. SMOKE Processing Paradigm 99

Fig. 3-105. SMOKE-Asia and Simplification of Input Data 100

Fig. 3-106. SMOKE-Asia Output Data(NetCDF) 101

Fig. 3-107. Scenario mode of GAINS-Korea 102

Fig. 3-108. Comparative analysis with China's existing emission data 104

Fig. 3-109. Comparison Bottom-up Emission and Top-down Emissions(China) 105

Fig. 3-110. Comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from CREATE... 106

Fig. 3-111. Comparison of BC, OC, Mercury emissions from CREATE... 106

Fig. 3-112. Comparative analysis with North Korea's existing emission data 107

Fig. 3-113. Comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from CREATE... 108

Fig. 3-114. Comparison of BC, OC, Mercury emissions from CREATE... 108

Fig. 3-115. Comparative analysis with Mongolia's existing emission data 109

Fig. 3-116. Comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from CREATE... 110

Fig. 3-117. Comparison of BC. OC, Mercury emissions from CREATE... 110

Fig. 3-118. Comparison of Russia's existing emissions data with Asia region 111

Fig. 3-119. Improved grid code allocation 112