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Preface xiv
Guided Tour xvi
Acknowledgements xviii
Introduction 1
The Use of Quantitative Techniques by Business 2
The Role of Quantitative Techniques in Business 6
Models in Quantitative Decision Making 9
Use of Computers 9
Using the Text 10
Summary 11
Further reading 11
Useful online resources 12
Application: British Telecom 12
Tools of the Trade 16
Learning objectives 16
Some Basic Terminology 17
Fractions, Proportions, Percentages 18
Rounding and Significant Figures 19
Common Notation 21
Powers and Roots 23
Logarithms 24
Summation and Factorials 26
Equations and Mathematical Models 27
Graphs 29
Real and Money Terms 35
Summary 36
Further reading 37
Exercises 38
Presenting Management Information 40
Learning objectives 40
A Business Example 41
Bar Charts 44
Pie Charts 52
Frequency Distributions 54
Percentage and Cumulative Frequencies 56
Histograms 58
Frequency Polygons 61
Ogives 62
Lorenz Curves 64
Time-series Graphs 66
Z Charts 68
Scatter Diagrams 74
General Principles of Graphical Presentation 77
Worked Example 78
Summary 82
Further reading 83
Useful online resources 83
Application: Cowie Health Centre, Scotland 84
Exercises 87
Management Statistics 93
Learning objectives 93
A Business Example 94
Why are Statistics Needed? 95
Measures of Averages 96
Measures of Variability 100
Using the Statistics 111
Calculating Statistics for Aggregated Data 113
Index Numbers 117
Worked Example 125
Summary 126
Further reading 127
Useful online resources 127
Application: Halifax plc: house price index 127
Exercises 134
Probability and Probability Distributions 138
Learning objectives 138
Terminology 141
The Multiplication Rule 144
The Addition Rule 145
A Business Application 146
Probability Distributions 149
The Binomial Distribution 152
The Normal Distribution 159
Worked Example 168
Summary 173
Further reading 173
Useful online resources 173
Application: ICI Pharmaceuticals 174
Exercises 177
Decision Making Under Uncertainty 180
Learning objectives 180
The Decision Problem 181
The Maximax Criterion 184
The Maximin Criterion 184
The Minimax Regret Criterion 184
Decision Making Using Probability Information 186
Risk 187
Decision Trees 189
The Value of Perfect Information 192
Worked Example 194
Summary 196
Further reading 196
Useful online resources 197
Application: Gulf Oil 197
Exercises 200
Market Research and Statistical Inference 203
Learning objectives 203
Populations and Samples 205
Sampling Distributions 210
The Central Limit Theorem 211
Characteristics of the Sampling Distribution 212
Confidence Intervals 213
Other Confidence Intervals 215
Confidence Intervals for Proportions 217
Interpreting Confidence Intervals 219
Hypothesis Tests 219
Tests on a Sample Mean 227
Tests on the Difference Between Two Means 228
Tests on Two Proportions or Percentages 230
Tests on Small Samples 232
Inferential Statistics Using a Computer Package 235
p Values in Hypothesis Tests 236
X2 Tests 237
Worked Example 244
Summary 250
Further reading 250
Useful online resources 251
Application: Queen's College, Taunton 251
Exercises 255
Quality Control and Quality Management 262
Learning objectives 262
The Importance of Quality 263
Techniques in Quality Management 264
Statistical Process Control 265
Control Charts 267
Control Charts for Attribute Variables 275
Pareto Charts 276
Ishikawa Diagrams 277
Worked Example 279
Summary 281
Further reading 282
Useful online resources 283
Application: Hewlett-Packard 283
Exercises 285
Forecasting I: Moving Averages and Time Series 287
Learning objectives 287
The Need for Forecasting 288
Approaches to Forecasting 293
Trend Projections 296
Time-series Models 310
Worked Example 324
Summary 326
Further reading 327
Useful online resources 327
Application: Retail supermarket, UK 328
Exercises 330
Forecasting II: Regression 335
Learning objectives 335
The Principles of Simple Linear Regression 336
The Correlation Coefficient 340
The Line of Best Fit 344
Using the Regression Equation 347
Further Statistical Evaluation of the Regression Equation 348
Non-linear Regression 361
Multiple Regression 363
The Forecasting Process 376
Worked Example 381
Summary 386
Further reading 386
Useful online resources 386
Application: RAC 387
Exercises 392
Linear Programming 399
Learning objectives 399
The Business Problem 400
Formulating the Problem 401
Graphical Solution to the LP Formulation 403
Sensitivity Analysis 410
Computer Solutions 413
Assumptions of the Basic Model 415
Dealing with More than Two Variables 415
Extensions to the Basic LP Model 419
Worked Example 419
Summary 425
Further reading 425
Useful online resources 426
Application: Blue Bell Inc. 427
Exercises 429
Stock Control 431
Learning objectives 431
The Stock-control Problem 432
Costs Involved in Stock Control 433
The Stock-control Decision 435
The Economic Order Quantity Model 438
The Reorder Cycle 439
Assumptions of the EOQ Model 440
Incorporating Lead Time 440
Classification of Stock Items 441
MRP and JIT 445
Worked Example 452
Summary 454
Further reading 454
Useful online resources 454
Application: Unipart 455
Exercises 457
Project Management 459
Learning objectives 459
Characteristics of a Project 460
Project Management 460
Business Example 461
Network Diagrams 466
Developing the Network Diagram 470
Using the Network Diagram 474
Precedence Diagrams 475
Gantt Charts 477
Uncertainty 479
Project Costs and Crashing 482
Worked Example 484
Summary 486
Further reading 487
Useful online resources 487
Application: Central Regional Council, Scotland 488
Exercises 490
Simulation 496
Learning objectives 496
The Principles of Simulation 497
Business Example 499
Developing the Simulation Model 500
A Simulation Flowchart 501
Using the Model 504
Worked Example 512
Summary 516
Further reading 517
Useful online resources 518
Application: University Hospital of Wales 518
Exercises 524
Financial Decision Making 529
Learning objectives 529
Interest 530
Nominal and Effective Interest 532
Present Value 533
Investment Appraisal 535
Replacing Equipment 540
Worked Example 545
Summary 546
Further Reading 550
Application: Tomco Oil Inc. 550
Exercises 553
Conclusion 556
Appendices
Binomial Distribution 557
Areas in the Tail of the Normal Distribution 562
Areas in the Tail of the t Distribution 563
Areas in the Tail of the x2 Distribution 564
Areas in the Tail of the F Fistribution, 0.05 Level 565
Solutions to Chapter Activities 567
Index 585
이용현황보기
Appealing both to students on introductory courses for quantitative methods and MBA and post-experience students, this respected text provides an accessible, practical introduction to an area that students often find difficult.
Concentrating on helping students to understand the relevance of quantitative methods of analysis to managers' decision-making, it focuses on the development of appropriate skills and understanding of how the techniques fit into the wider management process.
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