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요약 1
BRICS AND BEYOND 7
INTRODUCTION: BRICS AND BEYOND 12
SECTION ONE - THE BRICS 14
CHAPTER ONE - INDIA'S RISING GROWTH POTENTIAL 15
India's Scope for Catch-Up 16
Productivity Accelerates 17
Our Baseline Projections 19
Why Productivity Growth Is Likely to Be Sustained 20
Conclusion: India Can Become a Motor for the Global Economy 29
CHAPTER TWO - RUSSIA: A SMOOTH POLITICAL TRANSITION 30
The Putin Record 31
The Search for a Successor: 'Operation Preemnik' 34
Potential Threats to the Regime 38
Structural Reforms and Their Limits 41
Political Stability Is Good for Asset Prices 44
CHAPTER THREE - WILL CHINA GROW OLD BEFORE GETTING RICH? 46
China's Labour-Force Dynamics 48
Unleashing Surplus Labour 51
Output Growth Forecast 54
Rich But Not Richest 55
Policies to Watch 56
Implications of an Ageing But Fast-Growing China 57
CHAPTER FOUR - CHINA'S INVESTMENT STRENGTH IS SUSTAINABLE 58
Two Simple Math Inquiries, One Conclusion 60
Where Does the Data Go Wrong? 61
How High Should the Investment-to-GDP Ratio Be? 62
Investment Does Not Appear to Have Overshot the Rate of Return 63
Why Are Investment Returns So High? 67
Why Has the Financial Sector's Performance Been So Poor? 68
Conclusions 69
CHAPTER FIVE - THE 'B' IN BRICS: UNLOCKING BRAZIL'S GROWTH POTENTIAL 71
How Brazil Stacks Up Against the Other BRICs 73
What Derailed Brazil From Its Path of High Growth Rates? 74
Fiscal Policy Is Key to Unlocking Brazil's Growth Potential 76
A Policy Agenda to Boost Growth to 5% 77
The Lula II Administration May Fall Short of the 5% Growth Target 80
Conclusions and Investment Implications 81
CHAPTER SIX - YOU REAP WHAT YOU SOW: OUR GROWTH ENVIRONMENT SCORES 82
Highlights of Our 2006 GES 84
Benchmarking the Scope for Improvement 90
The Growth Bonus From Raising the GES 93
Looking Ahead: An Opportunity to Do More 94
APPENDIX: GES ACROSS COUNTRIES 97
CHAPTER SEVEN - WHY THE BRICS DREAM WON'T BE GREEN 99
BRICs' Share of Carbon Emissions Is Rising 101
BRICs CO2 Emissions to Exceed G6 Shareby 2025 ... 101
... But Carbon Intensity Is Expected to Fall 101
... and Renewables Will Play a Bigger Role 102
Urbanisation Moving Toward G6 Levels 102
Agricultural Water Usage Is Split ... 102
... Along With Fertiliser Usage 103
Trade-off Between Biodiversity and Wealth 103
CHAPTER EIGHT - WHY THE BRICS DREAM SHOULD BE GREEN 104
Unsustainable Resource Usage in China and India 106
Russia Is By Far the Most Reliant on Energy Depletion 106
Coastal Cities at Risk, Especially in India and China 106
Limited Arable Land Underscores Vulnerability 107
Scope for Increases in Energy Taxes 107
Brazil Leads in Hydroelectric and Renewables 107
Deforestation on the Rise in Brazil and Russia 108
China and Russia Use Forests Mainly for Production 108
CHAPTER NINE - BUILDING THE BRICS: INFRASTRUCTURE OPPORTUNITIES 109
Calling the BRICs ... 111
... Especially by Mobile 111
Electricity Consumption Shows Wide Divergence 111
India Leads the Way in BRICs Road Networks 112
... While Sanitation Has Further To Go 112
Water Access Increasing With Urbanisation ... 112
China Leading by Number of Infrastructure Projects 113
Diverging Stories in Telecoms and Water Investment 113
CHAPTER TEN - WOMEN HOLD UP HALF THE SKY 114
Despite Gains, Women Remain Under-Represented 116
China Has Highest Female Employment Rate 116
India Fares Worst in Female Literacy ... 116
... and Has Largest Scope for Gains in Women's Education 117
India Faces Acute Problems of Mortality 117
Women Live Longer, Still With Room to Improve 117
Brazil Has Highest Share of HIV-Infected Women 118
Obesity Is More Prevalent Among Women 118
SECTION TWO - BEYOND THE BRICS 119
CHAPTER ELEVEN - THE N-11: MORE THAN AN ACRONYM 120
The N-11 Dream 121
Highlights of the N-11 Dream 123
A Good Patch for N-11 Performance 127
N-11 Projections: Sustained Growth... 129
Growth Conditions and the GES Are Critical for the N-11 132
Growth Could Be Much Better If Conditions Improve 136
Characterising the N-11 Dream 137
The N-11: A Different Dream 137
APPENDIX: PROJECTIONS IN DETAIL 139
CHAPTER TWELVE - CURRENT ANSWERS (AND QUESTIONS) ABOUT BRICS AND THE N-11 141
Where We Stand on BRICs and the N-11 142
What Is the Latest With the BRICs? 143
Is the N-11 as Good an Investment Theme as the BRICs? 146
CHAPTER THIRTEENB - EYOND THE BRICS: A LOOK AT THE 'NEXT 11' 148
Energy Consumption Increasing in N-11... 150
...Leading to Rising CO2 Emissions 150
N-11 Urbanisation Potential Is Lower Than That of the BRICs 150
Some Benefit From Private Infrastructure Investment 151
Some N-11 Countries Rival the BRICs in Technology Adoption 151
Expanded Access to Water Has Been Mixed 151
N-11 Life Expectancy to Approach G6 Levels by 2050 152
The N-11 Surpass the BRICs in Healthcare Expenditure 152
CHAPTER FOURTEEN - THE GCC DREAM: BETWEEN THE BRICS AND THE DEVELOPED WORLD 153
Windfall Comes as a Blessing for the Region 154
Old Challenges and New Opportunities 160
Projecting the Future 162
SECTION THREE - THE NEW GLOBAL MARKETS 168
CHAPTER FIFTEEN - BONDING THE BRICS: THE ASCENT OF CHINA'S DEBT CAPITAL MARKET 169
Capital Markets Can Help Underpin China's Growth Prospects 170
The Current State of Play in China's DCM 172
The Goal for Policy: Moving From Quantities to Prices 179
The Rules of the Game: Strengthening the Regulatory Landscape 183
The Outlook for China's DCM 185
Conclusions: China's DCM to Fulfill Its Potential 188
CHAPTER SIXTEEN - BONDING THE BRICS: A BIG CHANCE FOR INDIA'S DEBT CAPITAL MARKET 189
Introduction: A Well-Functioning Debt Capital Market Is in India's Interest 190
Wide-Ranging Capital Market Reforms Could Yield a Large Payoff 191
The Current State of Play in India's Debt Capital Market 194
The Reform Agenda: First, Pick the 'Low-Hanging Fruit' 200
The Reform Agenda: Implementing the Politicised Reforms Requires a Long-Term Commitment 201
A Robust Corporate Debt Market Could Help 'Build' India 203
Peering Into the Future 204
The Outlook for India's DCM 206
CHAPTER SEVENTEEN - IS WALL STREET DOOMED? 208
Capital Markets Have Been Shifting for Decades 210
Look at a Map 212
Trends in Investment Management 213
The BRICs, the World Economy and the Future 214
Regulation Does Matter 215
Is Wall Street Doomed? 215
CHAPTER EIGHTEEN - SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS HIGHLIGHT THE CHANGING WORLD-AND THE NEED FOR MORE 216
What Is a Sovereign Wealth Fund? 218
Accountability and Transparency 220
The Rationale for State-Backed Investment Funds 220
Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Influence Asset Prices? 221
CHAPTER NINETEEN - GLOBALISATION AND DISINFLATION: CAN ANYONE ELSE 'DO A CHINA'? 225
Inflation 'Discount' Thanks to China 226
Globalisation and China Have Improved the Inflation and Growth Trade-Off 228
Can the Other BRICs and N-11 'Do a China'? 231
The Importance of Policy Intentions in the BRICs and N-11 234
CHAPTER TWENTY - BRICS AND GLOBAL COMMODITIES MARKETS 235
China Driving the Increase in BRICs Oil Demand... 237
... in BRICs Base Metals Demand... 237
... and in Skyrocketing Industrial Metals Consumption 237
Meat Consumption Split Along Cultural Lines 239
BRICs Meat Consumption Looking More Like G3 239
CHAPTER TWENTYONE - FOOD, GLORIOUS FOOD: AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES 240
Food Price Inflation Rising Across BRICs 242
Higher-Protein Diets Likely in China, India and Brazil 242
BRICs Consume More Than 'Their Share' of Meat ... 242
... As Seen in Rising Per Capita Consumption 243
Russia, China Are Among Top Agricultural Importers 243
BRICs More Visible in Agricultural Exports 243
Brazil Is the BRICs' Largest Agricultural Exporter 244
BRICs Are Among Top Global Producers of Ethanol 244
The N-11: More Than an Acronym 246
1. The N-11 Dream 247
2. Highlights of the N-11 Dream 247
3. A Good Patch For N-11 Performance 251
4. N-11 Projections: Sustained Growth... 253
5. ...and Rising Incomes 255
6. Growth conditions and the GES Critical For the N-11 257
7. Growth Could Be Much Better If Conditions Improve 258
8. Characterising the N-11 Dream 259
9. The N-11: A Different Dream 259
Appendix I: Choice of Convergence Speeds 262
Appendix II: Projections in Detail 263
Appendix III: GES Components Across N-11 265
Recent Global Economic Papers 267
The World in 2050 270
Summary 272
1. Introduction 275
2. Overview of methodology: key drivers of growth 277
3. Updated GDP projections to 2050 for the original 17 countries 278
4. Extension of the analysis to other emerging economies 288
5. Opportunities and challenges for the OECD economies 291
6. Conclusions 294
Annex: Detailed methodology for long-term GDP projections 296
References 301
Table 1: Projected real growth in GDP and income per capita: 2007-50 278
Table 2: Projected relative size of economies in 2007 and 2050 281
Table 3: Projected relative income per capita levels in 2007 and 2050 284
Table 4: Key changes in results since 2006 report - relative size of Chinese and Indian economies compared to the US 286
Table 5: Projected real growth rates for expanded group of emerging market economies: 2007-50 288
Table 6: Potential winners and losers amongst businesses within the OECD economies over next 10 years 292
Figure 1: Global GDP shares in 2006 275
Figure 2: Working age population growth rates 279
Figure 3: Projected trend growth rates in key economies 280
Figure 4: Projected relative size of major economies (GDP at market exchange rates) 282
Figure 5: Relative size of G7 and E7 economies 283
Figure 6: Projected size of other emerging economies in 2050 289
Table A.1: Investment rate assumptions 297
Table A.2: How should GDP be compared for different purposes? 300
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