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Title page=0,1,2

CONTENTS=0,3,1

SUMMARY=0,4,1

MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS=1,5,1

BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS=1,5,1

Background[원문불량;p.2]=1,5,2

U.S. Merchendise Trade Balance=2,6,2

Merchandise Trade Balance in Volume Terms=3,7,2

Current Account Balances=4,8,1

Forecasts=4,8,2

U.S. Bilateral Trade Balances[원문불량;p.6]=5,9,10

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IB94053

U.S. International Trade: Data and Forecasts

CRS Rpt. No. IB94053

June. 21, 1996 18 pp.

By Dick K. Nanto. In 1995, the United States incurred a merchandise trade deficit of $159.6 billion on a Census basis and $174.5 billion on a balance-of-payments basis. A surplus in services trade of $63.4 billion gave a deficit of$lll.O on goods and services (BoP basis) for the year. For January-April 1996, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $61.0 billion from $50.1 billion over the same period in 1995. U.S. trade deficits are a concern for Congress for several reasons. First, they may reflect the underlying ability of American businesses to compete with imports at home and in markets abroad. Second, they are a source of trade friction and depress the value of the dollar, which then hampers the ability of the Federal Reserve to use monetary policy to achieve other objectives such as econcmic growth. Third, they form a policy rationale for U.S. efforts to open foreign markets, to shield certain U.S. producers from foreign competition, and to asslst U.S. industries to become more competitive. Since 1976, the United States has incurred continual merchandise trade deficits. They increased dramatically from $27.5 billion in 1982 to a peak in 1987 at $153.0 billion. The deficit dropped to $67.0 billion in 1991 but rose to $174.5 billion in 1995. Much of the improvement. in the U.S. trade deficit between 1987 and 1991 resulted from a depreciation of the dollar. The multilateral trade-weighted real value of the U.S. dollar reached a high in 1985, then dropped sharply from 1986 through 1988. The worsening of the deficit in 1993.95 can be attributed primarily to the faster recovery from recession in the United States than in Europe or Japan. Stronger economic growth in the United States has been pulling in more imports, while weak growth in other parts of the world has dampeneci demand for U.S. exports. In 1995, total U.S. merchandise trade reached $1.3 trillion, with exports of $583.9 billion and imports of $743.4 billion (Census basis). In 1995, U.S. exports increased by 13.9%, while imports increased by 12.1%. Since the level of imports remains markedly higher than that for exports, even with higher export growth, the trade deficit is expected to continue to grow in 1996 despite economic recovery in Asia and Europe and a slowdown in growth in the Umted States. Economic forecasters expect the U.S. merchandise trade deficit to fall to about $160 billion in 1996 and rise to $166 $174 billion in 1997. The broadest measure of U.S. international economic transactions is the balance on current account. In addition to merchandise trade, it includes trade in services and unilateral transfers. Like the trade deficit, the current account deficit increased slightly in 1995 to 152.9 billion from $151.2 billion in 1994. After reaching a record high of $167.1 billion in 1987, the current account deficit had fallen steadily through 1991 when it reached $7.0 billion. In trade in advanced technology products, the U.S. surplus declined from $22.6 billion in 1994 to $13.3 billion in 1995. For 1996, the forecasts of the U.S. current account deficit expect a decline to a range of $122 to $142 billion.

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Major studies and issue briefs of the congressional research service [microform]. 1996, 96-IB-94053, U.S. International Trade: Data and Forecasts 이용현황 표 - 등록번호, 청구기호, 권별정보, 자료실, 이용여부로 구성 되어있습니다.
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