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Title page

Contents

Abstract 2

I. Introduction 4

II. Power Outages in the Developing World 5

III. A New Measure of Power Supply Irregularity (PSI) 8

IV. Validation of PSI against Ground-Based Data on Outages 15

A. Validation in Maharashtra 15

B. Validation against IHDS Survey Data 17

V. Variations in Power Outages across India 19

VI. Conclusion 23

References 24

Appendix: Calculation of the Power Supply Irregularity (PSI) Index 26

Tables

Table 1. Oeak Energy Shortages by Region 8

Table 2. PSI and power supply reliability in Maharashtra districts 17

Table 3. Correlation between PSI and duration of power outages reported by IHDS 18

Table 4. Power Supply Irregularity (PSI) index, 2013 state-wise rankings (higher values indicate more outages) 20

Figures

Figure 1. Official electricity shortages in India, 1984-2015 7

Figure 2. Data extraction from satellite imagery 10

Figure 3. Variability in light output over time can indicate power supply irregularities 11

Figure 4. Calculating the Power Supply Irregularity (PSI) index 13

Figure 5. Power Supply Irregularity (PSI) of villages 14

Figure 6. Correlations of annual ln (SAIFI) (scaled) and PSI (scaled) by Maharashtra district for 2009-2013 16

Figure 7. Probability density distribution of PSI and power outages reported by IHDS 19

Figure 8. Distribution stribution of PSI across villages in India's 16 largest states, 2013 21

Figure 9. PSI index in northern India, 2013 22

Appendix Figures

Figure A.1. Transforming raw VIS data to Statistically Recalibrated Visible Band (SR-VIS) data 28

Figure A.2. Std. dev. vs. mean SR-VIS of Indian villages, various years 29

Figure A.3. PSI vs. mean SR-VIS in India, 2013 30