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Title page
Contents
1. Introduction 3
2. Income Tax Data and Capitalization Models 6
2.1. Administrative tax data 6
2.2. Wealth inference from capitalization models 7
3. Survey of Consumer Finances data 9
3.1. Wealth measurement: SCF versus FA 10
3.2. SCF sampling 11
4. Wealth concentration estimates 12
4.1. Wealth concentration from capitalized wealth 13
4.2. Heterogeneous rates of return on interest-bearing assets, by wealth 14
4.3. SCF wealth concentration estimates 19
4.4. Overall wealth concentration trend 20
5. Variability in survey and administrative data 22
5.1. Modeling variability 22
5.2. Sampling error 23
5.3. Nonsampling error 23
5.4. Variability in SCF wealth concentration estimates 26
5.5. Wealth concentration trends{incorporating variability 27
6. Conclusion 27
References 29
7. Appendix A: wealth concentration in INSOLE data 42
7.1. Estimates from annual INSOLE income data 43
7.2. Estimates from permanent income 45
8. Appendix B: Pareto estimates 47
9. Appendix C: Top 0.1% estimates 52
Figure 1. Share of wealth held by top 1 percent of families in SCF and capitalized from income tax data. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Survey of Consumer Finances, Saez and Zucman (2016) 33
Figure 2. Rate of return on interest-bearing assets, ratio of wealthiest to overall. See table 1 for estimates of rates of return on interest-bearing assets for wealthiest families across time. The ratio... 34
Figure 3. Wealth concentration using several alternate heterogeneous rates of return by wealth. Share of wealth held by top 1 percent of tax filing units, 2002 to 2012. Solid red line is wealth share... 35
Figure 4. Wealth concentration in capitalized income tax model, by rate of return assump-tions. Note: Share of wealth held by top 1 percent of tax filing units, 2002 to 2012. Solid red line is wealth... 36
Figure 5. SCF wealth concentration estimates including Forbes wealth, tax units. The blue dashed line shows the share of wealth held by the top 1 percent of families in the SCF after an estimate... 37
Figure 6. Wealth concentration in SCF data and capitalized income data. Red and black lines as in figure 3 and blue line as in figure 5. Blue line is SCF wealth concentration estimate, augmented to... 38
Figure 7. Wealth concentration in SCF data, capitalized income data, and estate tax data. Red, black, and blue lines as in figure 6. Brown line is top 1 percent wealth share derived from estate tax... 39
Figure 8. Range of estimates of wealth concentration: SCF and capitalized income tax data. The upper bound of the red area is the baseline capitalization estimate (from figures 4, 3, 6, 7). The blue... 40
Figure 9. Range of estimates of wealth concentration: SCF and heterogeneous capitalized income tax data. Solid red line is the homogeneous rate of return estimate from figure 4 and traces out the... 41
Figure 10. Share of wealth held by top 1 percent: SCF and capitalization model with INSOLE income data. Using 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2013 INSOLE data to replicate figure 6. Source: INSOLE, Statistics... 44
Figure 11. Share of wealth held by top 1 percent: SCF and capitalization model with INSOLE income data. As in figure 10, using 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2013 INSOLE data to replicate figure 6. In addition... 45
Figure 12. Range of wealth concentration estimates when using permanent income and annual income. Using 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2013 INSOLE data as in figure 10. Range of estimates defined by... 46
Figure 13. Top tail of public SCF and Forbes wealth data. Source: Vermeulen (2015) 49
Figure 14. Share of wealth held by top 0.1 percent: SCF and capitalization model with PUF income data. Source: Survey of Consumer Finances, Public Use File (SOI), Saez (2016) top-up of PUF data, and authors' calculations 53
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