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Title page
Contents
Press Release No. 18/152 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 30, 2018 2
STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION 6
CONTEXT 9
RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 9
OUTLOOK AND RISKS 12
POLICY DISCUSSIONS 13
A. Monetary Policy 14
B. Fiscal Policy 15
C. Financial Sector Policies 17
D. Contingency Planning 19
E. Structural Reforms 19
STAFF APPRAISAL 21
Annex I. Re-Assessing Turkey's Macroeconomic Performance After the 2016 Statistical Revision 43
Annex II. External Sector Assessment 48
Annex III. Risk Assessment Matrix 50
Annex IV. Public Debt Sustainability Analysis 52
Annex V. External Debt Sustainability Analysis 60
Annex VI. Implementation of Past Fund Advice 63
STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION-INFORMATIONAL ANNEX 66
FUND RELATIONS 67
WORLD BANK RELATIONS 71
STATISTICAL ISSUES 73
Statement by Mr. Omer Bayar, Alternate Executive Director on Turkey and Mr. Faith Dogan, Advisor to the Executive Director on Turkey March 30, 2018 76
Press Release No. 18/152 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 30, 2018 5
Table 1. Turkey: Selected Economic Indicators, 2016-23 5
STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION 8
Table 1. Turkey: Selected Economic Indicators, 2016-23 30
Table 2. Turkey: Medium-Term Scenario, 2016-23 31
Table 3. Turkey: Summary of Balance of Payments, 2016-23 32
Table 4. Turkey: External Financing Requirements and Sources, 2016-23 33
Table 5. Turkey: Public Sector Finances, 2016-23 34
Table 6. Turkey: Financial Soundness Indicators, 2010-17 35
Figure 1. Turkey: Real Sector Developments 36
Figure 2. Turkey: Coincident and Leading Indicators 37
Figure 3. Turkey: Financial Sector Developments 38
Figure 4. Turkey: Fiscal Stance 39
Figure 5. Turkey: External Sector Developments 40
Figure 6. Turkey: Financial Markets Developments 41
Figure 7. Turkey: Macroeconomic Performance Relative to Peers 42
Boxes
Box 1. Recent Developments in the External Position 23
Box 2. Current Account and Real Effective Exchange Rate 26
Box 3. Fiscal Risks from Public-Private Partnership Projects 27
Box 4. VAT Efficiency and Reform Priorities 28
Box 5. Credit Guarantee Fund 29
Annex Tables
Annex V. External Debt Sustainability Analysis 61
Table 1. Turkey: External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2012-23 61
Table 1. Turkey: Progress in Implementation of FSAP Recommendations 63
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