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Title page
Contents
Abstract 3
Executive summary 4
1. Introduction 9
2. "Megatrends" affecting African economies 11
2.1. Africa's population explosion 11
2.1.1. Rural population growth and migration 11
2.1.2. Urbanization, income growth, diet transformation and increasing reliance on imported food 12
2.2. Rapid changes in land distribution, ownership and control 15
2.2.1. Changing farmland structure, ownership and land scarcity 15
2.2.2. Rising land prices and development of land markets in areas of favourable market access 16
2.2.3. Widespread soil degradation in densely populated rural areas 17
2.3. High global food prices 18
2.4. Climate change and water scarcity 18
3. Africa's evolving labour force: A declining role for agriculture? 19
3.1. Employment shifts in Africa's future working population 19
3.2. Changes in age structure in agriculture 24
4. Agricultural productivity growth and labour force diversification 27
4.1. Agricultural productivity growth: employment and income multiplier effects on non-farm sectors 27
4.2. Trends and prospects for agricultural productivity growth 29
5. Policy implications: the role of sustainable agricultural productivity growth in a comprehensive employment strategy 31
5.1. Promoting broad-based agricultural labour productivity growth 31
5.2. Upgrading the skills of labour force 32
5.3. Enabling agricultural workers to cope with vulnerability and develop resilience for structural transition 33
5.4. Encouraging value addition to agricultural products and investment in employment-intensive ventures 34
5.5. Speeding up demographic transition 34
References 35
Table 1. Proportion of the labour force between the ages of 15 and 64 years in self-employed farming, agricultural wage employment, off-farm stages of agri-food systems, and non-farm activities 21
Table 2. Types of employment over time 23
Table 3. Mean age of individuals engaged in agriculture(self-employed and wage-employed) 25
Figure 1. Population projections for sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world 11
Figure 2. Trends in rural population in selected developing regions 12
Figure 3. Value of food imports as a percentage of the value of domestic agricultural production 14
Figure 4. Mean age of individuals 15 years or older, who are engaged at least 50 percent of a full-time work equivalent in farming 26
Figure 5. Relationship between total factor productivity growth and change in share of labour force engaged in farming 28
Figure 6. Relationship between total factor productivity growth and labour productivity in non-agricultural sector 28
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