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Title page
Contents
Abstract 1
1. Introduction 4
2. The History of Programa Agua Limpia in Mexico 7
3. Data 9
3.1. Data 9
3.2. Graphical Evidence 11
4. Water Disinfection and Diarrheal Disease Mortality Rates 12
4.1. Empirical Strategy 12
4.2. Results 15
4.3. Extensions and Robustness 16
5. Under What Circumstances Is Municipal Water Disinfection Effective? 17
5.1. Empirical Strategy 17
5.2. Results 18
6. Behavioral Responses 20
6.1. Empirical Strategy 20
6.2. Results 21
7. Cost Effectiveness 22
8. Discussion and Conclusion 22
References 24
Appendix 41
Table 1. Descriptive Statistics 36
Table 2. Differences-in-Differences Models: Diarrheal Relative to Control Disease Trend Breaks Pre-Post PAL 37
Table 3. Triple Difference Models: Diarrheal Disease Mortality × Post-intervention × Small(Targeted) vs Large Municipality 38
Table 4. Determinants of Municipality-Specific Program Effects 39
Table 5. Behavioral Responses: Expenditures on Soaps, Detergents, Bottled Water 39
Table 6. Cost Effectiveness 40
Figure 1. Pre-Intervention Under-5 Diarrheal Mortality Rates Across Mexican Municipalities(1985-1990 average) 30
Figure 2. Chlorination Coverage under Programa Agua Limpia 30
Figure 3. National Trends in Log Under-5 Mortality Rates by Cause 31
Figure 4. Event Study Coefficient Plots 32
Figure 5. PAL Program Effects and Piped Water Coverage 33
Figure 6. Relationship Between Water System Age and Pipe Breaks 33
Figure 7. Water System Age and 1990 Population Coverage 34
Figure 8. PAL Program Effects and Water System Age 34
Figure 9. Infrastructure Quality and Heterogeneous Effects of PAL 35
Appendix Table 1. DID Trend Break Models: Logged Mortality Rates 42
Appendix Table 2. DID Trend Break Models: Inclusion of State-Year FE 43
Appendix Table 3. DID Trend Break Models: State-Level Data 43
Appendix Table 4. DID Trend Break Models: Monthly Death Counts 44
Appendix Table 5. DID Trend Break Models: Municipalities, 1979-1997 44
Appendix Table 6. Cross-State Convergence 45
Appendix Table 7. Diarrheal Mortality Decline and In-Migration 46
Appendix Table 8. Water System Age and Pipe Breaks 47
Appendix Figure 1. National Trends in Under-5 Deaths By Cause, 1979-1997 41
Appendix Figure 2. Convergence in Diarrheal Mortality Rates 42
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