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22대 대한민국 국회 국회정보길라잡이 국회의원검색
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Title page

Contents

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 3

2. Duration Analysis: A Brief Overview 5

2.1. Proportional Hazard Models 5

2.2. Accelerated Failure-Time Models 6

3. Data and Definitions 6

3.1. Defining Sudden Stops 7

3.2. Output Decelerations Following Sudden Stops 8

3.3. Policy Responses 9

4. Baseline Results 12

4.1. A First Look at the Duration of Sudden Stops: Non-Parametric Approach 12

4.2. Semi-parametric Models 12

4.3. Parametric Models 14

5. Robustness Checks 18

5.1. Controlling for Banking Crises 20

5.2. Controlling for Initial Levels of Public Debt and Reserves 20

5.3. Alternative Definitions of Sudden Stops 20

5.4. Introducing Unobserved Heterogeneity 21

6. Conclusion and Policy Implications 26

References 28

A. Appendix: Data Sources and Definitions 30

B. Appendix: Sudden Stops and Growth Decelerations Episodes 31

Tables

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics for the Duration of Sudden Stops 8

Table 2. Descriptive Statistics for the Duration of Growth Decelerations 9

Table 3. Cox Models 15

Table 4. Parametric PH Models for Sudden Stops 16

Table 5. Parametric PH Models for Growth Decelerations 17

Table 6. AFT Models for Sudden Stops 18

Table 7. AFT Models for Growth Decelerations 19

Table 8. PH Models with Banking Crises 21

Table 9. PH Models with Initial Public Debt 22

Table 10. PH Models with Initial Levels of Reserves 23

Table 11. Sudden Stops (with Inows in Percent of GDP) 24

Table 12. Growth Decelerations (with Inows in Percent of GDP) 25

Table 13. PH Frailty Models 26

Figures

Figure 1. Duration and Output Losses 4

Figure 2. Kernel Density Estimates of Policy Responses to Sudden Stops 11

Figure 3. Kaplan-Maier Survival Functions: Exchange Rate Regimes 13

Figure 4. Kaplan-Maier Survival Functions: Advanced vs. EMDEs 13

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