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Title page

Contents

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 6

2. National Emissions Trends and Targets 9

3. Carbon Pricing: Rationale, Instrument Choice, and Design Issues 12

A. Rationale 12

B. Instrument Choice and Design Issues 13

4. Impacts of Carbon Pricing 17

A. Emissions and Energy System 17

5. Enhancing the Acceptability of Carbon Pricing 21

A. Addressing Burdens on Households 21

B. Addressing Burdens on Firms 23

6. Reinforcing Sectoral Policies 26

A. Power Generation 26

B. Industry 29

C. Transportation 31

D. Buildings 32

E. Extractives 34

F. Agriculture 34

G. Forestry 35

H. Waste 36

I. Fuel Taxes 37

7/6. Summary of Recommendations 38

Annex A. The IMF-WB Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT) 39

Annex B. Behavioral Responses Promoted by Alternative CO₂ Mitigation Policies 42

Annex C. Additional Details on Carbon Pricing Schemes 43

References 44

Tables

Table 1. Summary Comparison of Carbon Taxes and ETSs 15

Table 2. Energy Price Increases from $75 Carbon Price, 2030 18

Table 3. Comparing Instruments to Address Competitiveness 25

Table 4. Excise Taxes by Fuel and Sector in 2020, G20 Countries 37

Figures

Figure 1. Global GHG Emissions, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Temperature Targets 6

Figure 2. CO₂ Emissions, Mitigation Ambition and Policy Gaps to 2030 6

Figure 3. Trends in International Fuel Prices 8

Figure 4. Per Capita Emissions and Global Shares, 2020 9

Figure 5. GHGs by Sector and Fuel, 2020 10

Figure 6. Drivers of BAU CO₂ Emissions 2021-2030 11

Figure 7. Annual projected local air pollution deaths to 2030 11

Figure 8. Current and Illustrative CO₂ Emissions Cuts for G20 Countries versus 2030 BAU 12

Figure 9. Allowance Price Volatility in ETSs 14

Figure 10. National or Regional Carbon Pricing Schemes, 2021 16

Figure 11. CO₂ Emissions Impacts from Carbon Pricing, G20 Countries 2030 17

Figure 12. CO₂ Reductions under $75 Carbon Price by Sector and Fuel, 2030 18

Figure 13. Annual revenues from Phased $75 Carbon Price by Fuel Product, 2030 19

Figure 14. Cumulative Averted Deaths from Reduced Air Pollution from Phased $75 Carbon Price 19

Figure 15. Annual Abatement Costs and Domestic Environmental Co-Benefits from Phased $75 Carbon Price 2030 20

Figure 16. Cost Increases for Turkish Exporters from the Prospective EU BCA, 2020 20

Figure 17. Burden on Households from $75 per tonne Carbon Price before and after Revenue Recycling, 2030 22

Figure 18. Production Cost Increases for Selected EITE Industries and Countries from $75 Carbon Price in 2030 23

Figure 19. Burdens on Trading Partners from $75 per tonne CBAM in Turkiye, 2020 24

Figure 20. Renewable Generation Shares and 2030 Targets, G20 countries 27

Figure 21. Projected Electricity Generation Shares in Turkiye under Carbon Price Rising to $75 in 2030 28

Figure 22. Illustrative Feebate for Power Sector 29

Figure 23. EV Sales Shares 2020, Selected Countries 31

Figure 24. CO₂-Based Components of Vehicle Taxes, Selected Countries 33

Boxes

Box 1. Illustrative Impacts of Carbon Pricing and Feebates on Production Costs for Steel and Cement 30

Annex Tables

Annex Table C.1. Further Details on National, Subnational and Regional Level Carbon Pricing Schemes in Operation 43

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