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Title page

Contents

Abstract/resume 4

Foreword 5

Acknowledgements 6

Abbreviations and acronyms 9

Executive summary 11

1. Displacement matters for climate change adaptation 13

Evidence suggests that climate change drives forced displacement 14

Climate change affects existing refugees and internally displaced persons 17

Displacement can help cope with climate change but also create other forms of vulnerability 17

Countries are generally vulnerable to displacement crises 18

Forced displacement is a development concern 19

2. Forced displacement in climate change adaptation plans 22

Key findings 22

Methodology for the baseline analysis 23

Baseline analysis for forced displacement in NAPs and NDCs 24

3. Legal frameworks and policies to address climate-related displacement remain fragmented 34

Key findings 34

International, cross-border, mobility policies are fragmented and leave gaps 36

Internally displaced persons often fall through the cracks and are not covered by international protection status 38

The global development agenda can help address climate forced displacement 39

4. Addressing the funding gap 43

Overall finance for climate change adaptation remains in short supply 43

5. Policy recommendations 46

Bibliography 49

Annex A. List of all National Adaptation Plan (NAPs) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) analysed 63

Annex B. Depth of explicit inclusion of displacement in NAPs and NDCs 68

Annex C. NAPs I NDCs with explicit contextual references to displacement, but no concrete provisions 69

Annex D. NAPS I NDCs that integrate crossborder displacement 70

Annex E. Inclusion of displacement in NAPs and NDCs of the top ten low- and middle-income countries hosting the largest refugee populations in 2022 71

Table 1. Searched terms and topics in NAPs and NDCs 23

Figure 1. Submissions of NAPs and NDCs per year 23

Figure 2. Extent of explicit inclusion of displacement in climate adaptation plans 24

Figure 3. Omission of climate-related displacement in NAPs and NDCs, in notable low- and middle-income countries 25

Figure 4. Omission of climate-related displacement in NAPs and NDCs, across key metrics 26

Figure 5. Specific policy areas in which NAPs and NDCs make concrete provisions on forced displacement 28

Figure 6. References to internal vs. cross-border displacement 29

Figure 7. Extent of reference in adaptation plans to existing refugees and IDPs 30

Figure 8. Actions identified in NAPs and NDCs in relation to existing refugees and IDPs 31

Figure 9. Inclusion of relocation, evacuation, and mobility terms with fuzzy (in)voluntariness in NAPs and NDCs 33

Boxes

Box 1. Climate change contributes to accelerating urbanisation 16

Box 2. Sudden-onset and slow-on-set disasters shape different dynamics, and adaptation strategies 19

Box 3. Loss and Damage associated with climate displacement 21

Box 4. Vanuatu's NDC as a good approach for including new climate-related displacement 27

Box 5. South Sudan's policies are good practice for including existing displaced populations 31

Box 6. Safeguards and protection measures are key when climate action itself generates forced displacement 33

Infographics

Infographic 1. A typology of displacement related to climate change 14

Infographic 2. Entry points and gaps in existing frameworks to address climate displacement 35

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