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Title page

Contents

Acknowledgements 5

Abbreviations 6

Executive Summary 10

Global and regional developments 10

Domestic developments 11

Economic outlook 16

Policy considerations 18

Bending Bamboo Shoots: Strengthening Foundational Skills 19

PART ONE. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook 25

Recent Economic Developments 26

Global economic conditions was subdued in 2023 but is now edging up 26

Malaysia's economy grew at a slower pace in 2023 28

Export growth was weighed down by weaker external demand and a global technology downcycle 29

Labor market conditions have broadly returned to pre-pandemic levels 32

Access to basic amenities is widespread, but some disparities remain 40

Inflationary pressures have eased 42

The Malaysian banking sector expanded while remaining well-capitalized 45

Capital market fundraising remained strong 48

Federal government revenue collection is expected to decline in 2024 51

Federal government subsidy spending is expected to decline in 2024 52

The share of rigid expenditures are projected to rise further in 2024 52

Higher federal government debt level in 2023 57

Economic Outlook 60

Global growth is expected to slow in 2024 60

Economic growth in Malaysia is projected to pick up in 2024 61

Risks to Malaysia's growth outlook remain tilted to the downside 62

Successful fiscal reforms will require both good policy design and effective policy communication to secure broad-based support from the Rakyat 63

PART TWO. Bending Bamboo Shoots: Strengthening Foundational Skills 65

Bending Bamboo Shoots: Strengthening Foundational Skills 66

Malaysia's successful transition to a high-income economy depends upon strengthening foundational skills 66

Malaysia has been successful in improving access to education with equitable allocation of resources 67

Yet, learning levels are low in the aggregate and significantly worse for the lower-income group 73

What explains poor student learning levels? 76

Early childhood education isn't equipping children adequately with school-readiness skills 76

Teachers' preparedness, effort and morale in Malaysia in primary schools remain uneven 77

Teacher performance management is not being implemented as prescribed in policy 82

How can Malaysia do better? 84

Start early and give all children a head start 85

Introduce better and more frequent measurement of student learning and teacher performance 85

Incentivize and support better teacher performance based on evidence 88

Teacher policies should be clear, doable, and rewarding for them to succeed 90

Summary of key recommendations 92

References 94

Annex 97

Tables

TABLE 1. Current account surplus declined in Q4 2023 while exports increased 30

TABLE 2. Malaysia has among the lowest gross impaired loans ratio in the ASEAN region 48

TABLE 3. Globally, civil service pension reforms involve movement towards a defined contribution system 55

TABLE 4. Malaysia's GDP growth is expected to pick up in 2024 62

TABLE 5. Number of MOE primary schools, teachers and students by location 67

TABLE 6. Currently, more than 16,700 government-established preschools operate in Malaysia 68

TABLE 7. Nutritional status (children under the age of 5) trend in Malaysia 70

TABLE 8. A larger percentage of children from the bottom two quintiles lack proficiency in reading, writing, and mathematics at the end of Grade 5 73

TABLE 9. Practices of effective teachers 78

TABLE 10. A much smaller percentage of children in Malaysia have teachers who regularly adopt effective reading instruction 79

Figures

FIGURE 1. Global growth is estimated to have weakened in 2023 to 2.6 percent 26

FIGURE 2. EAP countries grew faster than the rest of the world in 2023 26

FIGURE 3. Malaysia's moderating growth in 2023 was consistent with most other regional countries 28

FIGURE 4. Growth in Q4 2023 was supported by domestic demand, as labor market conditions continued to improve 28

FIGURE 5. Higher private and public capital spending contributed to further improvement in investment activity 29

FIGURE 6. Tourism activity continued to recover, inching closer to the pre-pandemic levels 29

FIGURE 7. Export growth contracted for the last two quarters of 2023 30

FIGURE 8. Current account surplus declined to 0.1 percent of GDP in Q4 2023 30

FIGURE 9. Growth of FDI stock in Malaysia slowed to 5.4 percent in 2023 31

FIGURE 10. The services sector was the key recipient of the net FDI inflows in 2023 31

FIGURE 11. The labor force participation rate has been increasing, while the unemployment rate has been declining... 32

FIGURE 12. ...with the largest declines in the unemployment rate seen for younger persons 32

FIGURE 13. Time-related underemployment has remained somewhat stagnant... 33

FIGURE 14. ...as has skill-related underemployment 33

FIGURE 15. Employment growth is gradually declining 33

FIGURE 16. Labor productivity growth has remained slow 34

FIGURE 17. The unemployment rate of migrant workers is trending higher than before the pandemic... 35

FIGURE 18. ...while both the number and share of migrant workers in the labor force have been decreasing over time 35

FIGURE 19. An increasing share of migrant workers are employed in low-skilled jobs... 36

FIGURE 20. ...reflecting their relatively lower levels of educational attainment 36

FIGURE 21. Migrant workers are increasingly employed in elementary occupations... 37

FIGURE 22. ...and in the agriculture sector 37

FIGURE 23. An increase in migrant workers is associated with an increase in the employment of Malaysian workers... 38

FIGURE 24. ...especially among those who are 30 and older and have a secondary education 38

FIGURE 25. The current levels of inequality are still high compared to peer countries 40

FIGURE 26. Access to basic amenities is impressive at the national average, but regional disparities remain 41

FIGURE 27. Malaysia's headline inflation rate has steadily eased in 2023, broadly in line with other countries in the region 42

FIGURE 28. The lower headline inflation in 2023 is primarily due to lower food price increases 42

FIGURE 29. Inflation pervasiveness declined in 2023 43

FIGURE 30. The ringgit remained on a long-term depreciating trend 44

FIGURE 31. Unlike its regional peers, Malaysia's REER has been on a declining trend 44

FIGURE 32. Total capital ratio remained well over the regulatory minimum capital level 45

FIGURE 33. Growth in credit to the private sector continued, with marked pick up in business loans in the second half of 2023 46

FIGURE 34. Business loan applications and approvals are higher than pre-pandemic levels 46

FIGURE 35. Mortgages account for the largest share of household debt in Malaysia 47

FIGURE 36. Gross impaired loans ratio decreased to 1.65 percent as of December 2023 48

FIGURE 37. The performance of Malaysia's benchmark equity index was in line with most regional markets 49

FIGURE 38. Foreign portfolio net inflows into Malaysian bond markets helped offset outflows from equities 50

FIGURE 39. Foreign fund flow trends in Malaysia were comparable to trends in regional ASEAN-4 peers 50

FIGURE 40. The share of petroleum-related revenue declined in 2023 due to lower global oil prices 51

FIGURE 41. In 2024, the revenue collection is expected to decline mainly due to a continued decrease in petroleum-related investment income 51

FIGURE 42. The share of rigid spending increased in 2023 and is expected to rise further in 2024 53

FIGURE 43. Debt service ratio is expected to be above its administrative prudent limit in 2024 53

FIGURE 44. The accrual rates that determine a civil servant's pension payment and the retirement age vary from country to country 54

FIGURE 45. Federal government statutory debt increased in 2023 57

FIGURE 46. The salient features of the PFFRA 58

FIGURE 47. Global growth is expected to slow to 2.4 percent in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of deceleration 60

FIGURE 48. Growth in EAP is expected to slow to 4.5 percent in 2024, mainly reflecting slower growth in China 60

FIGURE 49. Malaysia's GDP growth is projected to pick up to 4.3 percent in 2024... 61

FIGURE 50. ...driven by higher domestic spending and recovery in the external sector 61

FIGURE 51. Primary education is nearly universal in Malaysia 67

FIGURE 52. Compared to other countries, the expansion of primary education in Malaysia has been equitable in terms of resources and student experience 68

FIGURE 53. School readiness is positively correlated with higher scores on the SEA-PLM test 69

FIGURE 54. Change in brain development by age 71

FIGURE 55. Public spending is pro-poor at the primary level 72

FIGURE 56. Malaysia moved up to middle-third in PISA 2018 but fell back to bottom-third in PISA 2023 74

FIGURE 57. Students from the poorest quintile are far less likely to perform well on school readiness 76

FIGURE 58. Percentage of Grade 5 children by teacher's pedagogical training content 80

FIGURE 59. Nearly 40 percent of Grade 5 students reported that their teachers are sometimes or often absent 81

FIGURE 60. Teachers in Malaysia spend less class time on actual teaching and learning than most other TALIS countries 81

FIGURE 61. The Malaysia Education Blueprint 2013-2025 has outlined a set of reform initiatives to manage teachers' underperformance 82

FIGURE 62. Expected changes in teaching reforms do not materialize as quickly as planned 83

FIGURE 63. Ministry of Education staff performed very well in these evaluations almost unanimously 83

FIGURE 64. Only about 0.6 percent of teachers annually leave the profession ahead of retirement age, suggests the policy may not be meeting its objectives on exit 83

FIGURE 65. Rigorous impact evaluation of in-service teacher training programs in the region shows such training can lead to better learning outcomes 89

Boxes

BOX 1. Foreign direct investment and domestic direct investment trends in 2023 31

BOX 2. Migrant workers in Malaysia 37

BOX 3. Reforming civil service pensions 54

BOX 4. Understanding the Public Finance and Fiscal Responsibility Act 58

BOX 5. The importance of nutrition and early stimulation on skills acquisition: Summary of a recent ECE study 70

BOX 6. Skills measured by PISA and SEA-PLM and why they are relevant for Malaysia 75

BOX 7. What do effective teachers do? 78

BOX 8. Malaysia Education Blueprint 2013-2025: Teacher strategy 79

BOX 9. Key initiatives to improve learning outcomes post COVID-19 84

BOX 10. The case of Sobral, Brazil: Addressing difficult political economy challenges 86

BOX 11. Evidence on the effectiveness of the 4C approach: Content, Colleagues, Continued, and Career 89

BOX 12. Why did two school systems have dramatically different outcomes despite similar policies? 91

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