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Title page

Contents

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Data and Stylized Facts 7

3. Empirical Strategy 14

3.1. Specification Issues 14

3.2. IV Strategy 15

3.3. First-Stage Regressions 16

3.4. Discussion 18

4. Results 21

4.1. Effects on Immigration 21

4.2. Effects on Emigration 23

4.3. Robustness: Alternative Dependent Variables 23

4.4. Mechanisms: attitudes, leadership and policies 28

4.5. Heterogeneity Across Sub-Samples 31

5. Conclusions 32

References 33

Appendix 38

A. Right-Wing Populism Before WW2 38

B. Applying the IV Approach to Total Populism 40

C. Parallel Pre-Trend Tests 41

D. Results of PPML Regressions 41

E. Right-Wing Populism and Total Migration Flows 43

F. Construction of the Migration Policy Variable 44

G. Left-Wing Populism and Migration Flows 45

Tables

Table 1. Association Between the Mean Margin of Right-Wing Populism and Other Variables in the Full Sample 13

Table 2. First-Stage Regressions for RWPIndexi,t 17

Table 3. First-Stage Regressions for RWPVotesi,t 18

Table 4. Party-Level Responses to Inflation Crises 20

Table 5. IV Regressions with Various Crisis Definitions, Dependent = Annual Skill-Specific Immigration Flows 22

Table 6. IV Regressions with Various Crisis Definitions, Dependent = Annual Skill-Specific Emigration Flows 24

Table 7. IV Regressions with Alternative Migration Data Sources, Dependent = Annual Skill-Specific Immigration Flows 25

Table 8. IV Regressions with Alternative Migration Data Sources, Dependent = Annual Skill-Specific Emigration Flows 27

Table 9. IV Regressions with Skill-Content Corridor Dummies, Dependent = Annual Total Migration Flows 28

Table 10. IV Regressions with Additional Proxies for RWP, Dependent = Annual Skill-Specific Immigration Flows 29

Table 11. IV Regressions with Additional Proxies for RWP, Dependent = Annual Skill-Specific Emigration Flows 30

Table 12. IV Regressions After Excluding Countries, Dependent = Annual Skill-Specific Migration Flows 32

Figures

Figure 1. Countries Available in MPD Data 8

Figure 2. Mean Margin of Right-Wing Populism - Sample Average 1960-2015 10

Figure 3. Alternative Measures of Right-Wing Populism - Sample Average 1960-2015 11

Figure 4. Right-Wing Populism and Variations in Migration Policy Restrictiveness 12

Appendix Tables

Table A.1. Extreme-Right and Nationalist Parties in 1900-1950 39

Table B.1. First-Stage Regressions for TPIndexi,t (Centrist, Left- and Right-Wing) 40

Table C.1. PPML Regressions with the instrument 41

Table D.1. PPML Regressions with Various Crisis Definitions, Dependent = Annual Skill-Specific Immigration Flows 42

Table D.2. PPML Regressions with Various Crisis Definitions, Dependent = Annual Skill-Specific Emigration Flows 43

Table E.1. Robustness to Migration Data Source, Dependent = Total Immigration Flow 44

Table E.2. Robustness to Migration Data Source, Dependent = Total Emigration Flow 44

Table F.1. Correlates of the Changes in Migration Policy, Dependent = Variation in Restrictiveness (△ PolSi,t) 45

Table G.1. PPML Regressions with Various Crisis Definitions, Dependent = Annual Skill-Specific Immigration Flows - Left-Wing populism 46

Table G.2. PPML Regressions with Various Crisis Definitions, Dependent = Annual Skill-Specific Emigration Flows - Left-Wing populism 47

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