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22대 대한민국 국회 국회정보길라잡이 국회의원검색
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소장정보 검색

국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색
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Title page

Contents

Abstract 3

Introduction 4

1. Empirical Strategy 8

2. Empirical Results 17

3. Robustness 21

4. Conclusions 27

Acknowledgements 29

References 31

Appendix 36

A. Data Definitions and Sources 36

B. Neglecting Anticipation Effects 37

C. Online Appendix 39

Tables

Table 1. Descriptive statistics of exogenous tax changes 10

Table 2. Anticipation horizons of anticipated exogenous tax changes in Germany in quarters 12

Table 3. Overview and comparison with other tax multiplier studies for Germany 27

Figures

Figure 1. Distribution of implementation lags 13

Figure 2. Unanticipated and anticipated tax changes based on the announcement date 16

Figure 3. The impact of a 1 percent tax cut 20

Figure 4. The impact of a 1 percent tax cut on tax revenue 22

Figure 5. The impact of a 1 percent tax cut - Specification with fiscal policy variables 25

Figure 6. The impact of an anticipated 1 percent tax cut - Anticipation based on the draft date 26

Appendix Tables

Table A1. Macroeconomic variables: description and sources 36

Table C1. Example for narrative data 39

Table C2. Lag selection criteria 47

Table C3. Predictability of exogenous tax changes 52

Table C4. Tax Multipliers 53

Appendix Figures

Figure B1. The impact of a 1 percent tax cut -Without anticipation effects 37

Figure C1. The impact of an anticipated 1 percent tax cut - Alternative specification 40

Figure C2. The impact of an anticipated 1 percent tax cut - Alternative tax change size 41

Figure C3. The impact of a 1 percent tax cut - 1970Q1-2011Q4 Subsample 42

Figure C4. The impact of a 1 percent tax cut - High inflation period dummies 43

Figure C5. The impact of a 1 percent tax cut - Alternative anticipation horizons 45

Figure C6. The impact of a 1 percent tax cut - Alternative lags of endogenous variables 46

Figure C7. The impact of an anticipated 1 percent tax change - Asymmetric Response 48

Figure C8. The impact of a surprise 1 percent tax change - Asymmetric Response 49

Figure C9. The impact of a 1 percent tax cut - Excluding long implementation lags 50

Figure C10. Difference Between Anticipated and Surprise Shocks 54

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