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국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색
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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 4

2. Methodology 7

3. Data 9

4. Results 9

4.1. Effects of trade-related environmental policies on carbon-intensive industries and trade flows 9

4.2. Local labor market impacts of carbon prices 18

5. Conclusion 20

References 21

Annex A 24

Annex B: Can a carbon adjustment tariff be effective? 27

Annex C 29

Tables 15

Table 1. PPML HDFE Full Sample Estimates 15

Table 2. PPML HDFE Estimates of MENA and Environmental Provisions in RTAs 16

Table 3. PPML HDFE Estimates of Specific Provisions and Trade Flows 17

Table 4. Energy intensity exposure, by district 2016 19

Table 5. Results 20

Figures 5

Figure 1. Conceptual framework 5

Figure 2. Rise of the Recent Wave of Globalization 10

Figure 3. Global Trends in MENA and the Rest of the World 11

Figure 4. Comparing Coverage-Weighted Incidence of Environmental Provision Categories 11

Figure 5. Environmental Provisions in RTAs 13

Annex Tables 24

Table A.1. List of Environmental Provisions 24

Table A.2. Correlation Coefficients of Specific Provisions 25

초록보기

This paper examines two key questions about decarbonization and its economic implications. First, it analyzes how environmental provisions in trade agreements affect bilateral trade flows, with a specific focus on the Middle East and North Africa region. By constructing a detailed dataset of trade agreements that include environmental provisions and applying an augmented gravity model, the study reveals that while regional trade agreements generally promote trade by reducing barriers and fostering economic cooperation, the inclusion of environmental provisions introduces complexity. Environmental provisions can enhance or hinder trade flows depending on the nature of the provisions and the economic context. Provisions related to general environmental goals and judicial enforcement tend to promote trade, whereas more stringent regulations often impose compliance costs, thereby reducing trade flows. Middle East and North Africa–specific findings suggest that while regional trade agreements may be less advantageous for countries in the region, compared to other regions, environmental provisions can counterbalance this by improving the region’s environmental standards and reputation, ultimately supporting trade growth. The second focus of the paper explores labor market consequences from rising carbon prices and the transition to renewable energy in Tunisia. The findings indicate that districts heavily reliant on fossil fuels experience significant employment declines, particularly among male workers, as carbon prices rise. The results underscore the importance of targeting policies to mitigate job losses in carbon-intensive sectors while promoting “green” job creation in renewable energy industries.

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