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Title page 1

Contents 3

Foreword 4

Executive summary 5

Key messages 6

1. Global perspective on renewable energy resources in 2023 8

1.1. Introduction 8

1.2. Key climate observations for 2023 10

1.3. Wind power capacity factor 11

1.4. Solar power capacity factor 13

1.5. Hydropower proxy indicator 16

1.6. Energy demand proxy indicator 18

2. Regional perspective 21

2.1. Africa 21

2.2. Asia 23

2.3. South America 26

3. Adaptation to climate variability with seasonal climate forecasts 28

3.1. Seasonal forecast of wind speed 29

3.2. Seasonal forecast for solar radiation 30

3.3. Seasonal forecast for precipitation 30

3.4. Seasonal forecast for temperature 31

4. Conclusions 33

4.1. Key messages 34

5. Methodology 35

5.1. Wind power capacity factor calculation 36

5.2. Solar photovoltaic power capacity factor calculation 37

5.3. Hydropower proxy 39

5.4. Energy demand proxy 40

5.5. Seasonal forecast skill measure 42

5.6. Seasonal forecast assessment 43

6. References 45

Tables 9

Table 1. Summary of global installed capacity for wind power (WP), solar photovoltaic (PV) and hydropower (HP). The corresponding power generation is also... 9

Table 2. Selected indices for CDD and HDD 41

Table 3. Summary of the main features of the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) 42

Figures 12

Figure 1. Global anomalies for the wind power (WP) capacity factor annual mean (expressed in %) for 2023 (top) and 2022 (bottom) relative to the average... 12

Figure 2. Global anomalies for the wind power (WP) capacity factor annual mean (expressed in %) for June (left) and November (right) 2023 relative to the average... 13

Figure 3. Global anomalies of solar photovoltaic (SPV) power capacity factor annual mean (expressed in %) for 2023 (top) and 2022 (bottom) relative to the average... 14

Figure 4. Global anomalies of solar photovoltaic (SPV) power capacity factor annual mean (expressed in %) for June (left) and November (right) 2023 relative... 16

Figure 5. Global anomalies of hydropower proxy annual mean (expressed in %) for 2023 (top) and 2022 (bottom) relative to average of the 1991-2020 reference... 17

Figure 6. Global anomalies of hydropower proxy annual mean (expressed in %) for June (left) and November (right) 2023 relative to the average of their corresponding... 18

Figure 7. Global anomalies of energy demand proxy (energy degree days (EDDs)) annual mean (expressed as %) for 2023 (top) and 2022 (bottom) relative... 20

Figure 8. Global anomalies of energy demand proxy (energy degree days (EDDs)) annual mean (expressed as %) for June (left), November (right) 2023 relative... 20

Figure 9. The four energy indicators - solar PV capacity factor (SPV), wind power (WP) capacity factor, installed-capacity-weighted total precipitation (IWP)... 24

Figure 10. The four energy indicators - solar PV capacity factor (SPV), wind power (WP) capacity factor, installed-capacity-weighted total precipitation (IWP)... 25

Figure 11. The four energy indicators - solar PV capacity factor (SPV), wind power (WP) capacity factor, installed-capacity-weighted total precipitation (IWP)... 27

Figure 12. Maps of wind speed focusing on South America (from a global model) for November 2023. The panels show (left) the observed anomaly based... 30

Figure 13. Maps of solar radiation focusing on South America (from a global model) for November 2023. The panels show (left) the observed anomaly based... 31

Figure 14. Maps of precipitation focusing on South America (from a global model) for November 2023. The panels show (left) the observed anomaly based... 32

Figure 15. Maps of air temperature focusing on South America (from a global model) for November 2023. The panels show (left) the observed anomaly based... 32

Figure 16. Assessment of the seasonal forecast using the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) for wind speed, targeting November over the testing... 43

Figure 17. Assessment of the seasonal forecast using the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) for solar radiation, targeting November over the testing... 44

Figure 18. Assessment of the seasonal forecast using the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) for precipitation, targeting November over the testing... 44

Figure 19. Assessment of the seasonal forecast using the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) for air temperature, targeting November over the testing... 45

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