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Title page 1
Contents 1
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 2
SUMMARY 3
1. CHILD POVERTY IN 2030 6
2. THE DYNAMICS OF CHILD POVERTY IN THE RECENT PAST 11
3. CONCLUSIONS 21
REFERENCES 22
Tables 7
Table 1.1. Scotland's existing social security policies play an important role in limiting child poverty in 2030 7
Table 1.2. Increasing parents' wages and employment can reduce the child poverty rate, but even with highly optimistic assumptions the 2030 target would be missed 9
Table 1.3. Doubling the Scottish Child Payment would further reduce the child poverty rate but the 2030 target would still be missed 10
Figures 12
Figure 2.1. Single parents and the lower earner of couple-parents have very similar earnings in Scotland 12
Figure 2.2. Households with children tend to have higher housing costs than households without, and single-parent households rarely have low housing costs 13
Figure 2.3. Single parents in Scotland are far more likely to be renting than couple-parents 13
Figure 2.4. Sharing after-housing cost earnings among household members reduces disposable income for larger families and single parents 14
Figure 2.5. Single parents in Scotland are more likely than couple-parents to report being long term sick or disabled 15
Figure 2.6. Single parents have very similar patterns of economic activity as the lower earning member of a parent couple, but much higher poverty risks 16
Figure 2.7. Households receiving universal credit have similar equivalised disposable incomes across different family configuration 18
Figure 2.8. A large share of children in poverty in Scotland have couple parents who do not receive universal credit (or equivalent benefits that precede universal credit) 19
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