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Title page 1

Contents 4

FOREWORD 6

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 8

ACRONYMS 9

CHAPTER S. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11

CHAPTER 1. WHY EXTREME URBAN HEAT MATTERS 19

EXTREME URBAN HEAT: A STRATEGIC CONCERN FOR BANGKOK 19

FRAMEWORK FOR THIS STUDY 20

HAZARD: INCREASINGLY FREQUENT AND INTENSE HEATWAVES 22

EXPOSURE: THAILAND'S POPULATION CENTER, ENGINE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ASSETS 25

VULNERABILITY: AGING POPULATIONS, OUTDOOR WORKERS, AND LACK OF EFFICIENT COOLING SYSTEMS 26

CHAPTER 2. URBAN HEAT IN BANGKOK 29

BANGKOK EXPERIENCES A STRONG URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT 29

HIGH DENSITY AND LOW VEGETATION INTENSIFY HEAT RISKS 30

URBAN HEAT OVERLAPS WITH VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 32

CHAPTER 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH, INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE ECONOMY 35

HIGH TEMPERATURES CAUSE AVOIDABLE DEATHS 35

ENERGY USAGE FROM COOLING INCREASES CARBON EMISSIONS AND PUTS A FINANCIAL STRAIN ON LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS 41

HEAT ADVERSELY AFFECTS EDUCATION OUTCOMES AND INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS 43

CHAPTER 4.TAKING STOCK: CURRENT MEASURES FOR HEAT RESILIENCE 45

BMA'S HEAT-RELATED POLICIES AND URBAN HEAT MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK 46

ONGOING INVESTMENTS IN BANGKOK'S HEAT RESILIENCE 48

INSTITUTIONAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSTRAINTS ON BANGKOK'S URBAN HEAT MANAGEMENT 50

CHAPTER 5. STRATEGIC ACTIONS FOR HEAT-RESILIENT BANGKOK 51

PLACES 54

PEOPLE 58

INSTITUTIONS 63

REFERENCES 67

ANNEX 1. ESTIMATING URBAN HEAT ISLAND INTENSITY 70

ANNEX 2. ESTIMATING EXCESS MORTALITY DUE TO HEAT 73

ANNEX 3. ESTIMATING PRODUCTIVITY LOSS DUE TO HEAT VIA LABOR SURVEY DATA 76

ANNEX 4. ESTIMATING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND ENERGY USE IN BANGKOK'S CONTEXT 78

Tables 5

TABLE 1. DAILY MAXIMUM, MINIMUM, AND MEAN TEMPERATURES IN THREE SEASONS IN BANGKOK 30

TABLE 2. CHARACTERISTICS OF DISTRICTS BY URBAN HEAT ISLAND INTENSITY 33

TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF BANGKOK'S CURRENT HEAT ACTION PLAN 48

Figures 5

FIGURE 1. DRIVERS OF HEAT RISK (PANEL A) AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR THIS STUDY (PANEL B) 20

FIGURE 2. PROJECTED NUMBER OF HOT DAYS IN BANGKOK, DIFFERENT CLIMATE SCENARIOS 22

FIGURE 3. CURRENT AND PROJECTED NUMBER OF DAYS WITH EXTREME HEAT IN THE SUN 24

FIGURE 4. CHILD AND ELDERLY POPULATION BY DISTRICTS, BANGKOK 27

FIGURE 5. MEAN URBAN HEAT ISLAND INTENSITY FOR SELECTED LAND USE TYPES DURING THREE SEASONS 31

FIGURE 6. MEAN URBAN HEAT ISLAND INTENSITY BY TIME OF DAY DURING DECEMBER 2019 FOR DIFFERENT LAND USE TYPES IN BANGKOK 31

FIGURE 7. URBAN HEAT ISLAND INTENSITY BY DISTRICT 32

FIGURE 8. HEAT RISK CLASSIFICATION FOR DISTRICTS OF BANGKOK 34

FIGURE 9. MODELED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DAILY TEMPERATURE AND ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY RISK IN BANGKOK (7-DAY LAG) 36

FIGURE 10. EXCESS DEATHS AND ECONOMIC ESTIMATE OF DEATH-RELATED LOSS 37

FIGURE 11. WORKER HEAT SCORE INDEX, BY SECTOR 38

FIGURE 12. COMPARISON OF PRODUCTIVITY LOSS DUE TO URBAN HEAT TO OTHER URBAN ISSUES 39

FIGURE 13. PERCENTAGE OF PRODUCTIVITY (HOURLY WAGE) LOSS PER 1℃ INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE, BY SECTOR 40

FIGURE 14. SECTORAL SHARE ON TOTAL PRODUCTIVITY LOSS PER 1℃ INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE 40

FIGURE 15. ELECTRICITY BILLS BY BANGKOK HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE QUANTILES 42

FIGURE 16. EXAMPLES OF URBAN HEAT-RELATED INVESTMENTS IN BANGKOK 49

FIGURE 17. THE "PLACES, PEOPLE, INSTITUTIONS" FRAMEWORK FOR URBAN HEAT RESILIENCE 52

FIGURE 18. IMPROVEMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR BANGKOK HEAT RESILIENCE POLICIES 53

FIGURE 19. WRF GRID CONFIGURATION FOR EACH SIMULATION 71

FIGURE 20. BANGKOK LAND USE/LAND COVER MAP INCLUDED IN THE WRF SIMULATIONS 71

FIGURE 21. DISTRICT-LEVEL RELATIVE RISK OF DEATH DUE TO HIGHER-THAN-OPTIMAL TEMPERATURE, 2019 73

Boxes 5

BOX 1. EXTREME HEAT AND ITS IMPACT ON EDUCATION OUTCOMES 43

BOX 2. HOW URBAN HEAT AFFECTS CITY INFRASTRUCTURE 44

BOX 3. THE PLACES, PEOPLE AND INSTITUTIONS FRAMEWORK 52

BOX 4. LEVERAGING GREEN AND BLUE INFRASTRUCTURE TO COUNTER IMPACT FROM URBAN HEAT IN GUANGZHOU 56

BOX 5. PARIS: COOLING THE CITY THROUGH BUILDING CODES AND REGULATIONS 57

BOX 6. SAVINGS LIVES THROUGH EARLY WARNINGS AND HEAT ACTION PLANNING - AHMEDABAD'S EXPERIENCE 60

BOX 7. TRANSFORMING PUBLIC FACILITIES INTO COOLING CENTERS: STRATEGIES AND SUCCESS FACTORS 62

BOX 8. STAKEHOLDERS FOR ADDRESSING URBAN HEAT MANAGEMENT 64

BOX 9. LEGISLATION, GOVERNANCE AND PARTNERSHIPS FOR A COOLER SINGAPORE 66

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