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Title page 1

Contents 4

ACRONYMS 6

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 7

ABSTRACT 8

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9

PART ONE. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK 13

1.1. Global and regional context 14

1.2. Real sector developments 15

1.3. Labor market developments 17

1.4. External sector developments 20

1.5. Inflation and monetary policy developments 21

1.6. Fiscal developments and debt sustainability 23

1.7. Rwanda's economic outlook and risks 24

PART TWO. MODERNIZING AGRICULTURE TO ACCELERATE STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION 27

2.1. State of agriculture in Rwanda 29

2.2. Key drivers of agricultural productivity and growth 34

2.3. Current policy orientations and regional commitments 44

2.4. Recommendations 48

REFERENCES 51

Tables 5

Table 1.1. Global growth and commodity prices 14

Table 1.2. Labor Market Indicators in Rwanda: 2019 Q4 to 2024 Q4 18

Table 1.3. The structure of employment in Rwanda: Male and female 19

Table 1.4. Balance of payments, 2022-24 20

Table 1.5. Rwanda's public finance, FY21/22-FY24/25 23

Table 1.6. Tax policy: measures and timeline 25

Table 2.1. Average annual growth rate of agricultural sub-sectors 30

Table 2.2. Crop yields comparison with peers and best performing countries in Africa and Asia 35

Table 2.3. Discrepancies between men and women in the agricultural sector 43

Figures 4

Figure 1.1. Rwanda's GDP growth 16

Figure 1.2. Agriculture growth recovered after two years of contraction 17

Figure 1.3. Selected labor market indicators 17

Figure 1.4. Sectoral employment 17

Figure 1.5. Selected quarterly labor market indicators 18

Figure 1.6. Headline inflation has moderated 21

Figure 1.7. Changes in interest rates 22

Figure 1.8. Decomposition of public debt accumulation 24

Figure 2.1. Rwandan export structure 30

Figure 2.2. Sectoral employment of labor force 31

Figure 2.3. Educational attainment in Rwanda's agricultural workforce compared to peers 31

Figure 2.4. Crop yields comparison with peers and best performing countries in Africa and Asia 35

Figure 2.5. Value added per worker 36

Figure 2.6. Fertilizer consumption per hectare in 2021 36

Figure 2.7. Inflation in Rwanda correlates with adverse weather events 39

Figure 2.8. Household production sold across farm size 40

Figure 2.9. Government agriculture expenditure 45

Boxes 5

Box 1.1. Rwanda's recently approved tax policy reforms 25

Box 2.1. Agricultural mechanization status in Rwanda and potential policy options 38

Box 2.2. Agricultural commercialization and land ownership in Rwanda 40

Box 2.3. Lessons from cold storage infrastructure development 41

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