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국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색

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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Linked survey-administrative data 7

2.1. Firm-level survey of technology adoption 7

2.2. Administrative employment and short-time work data 12

2.3. Descriptive statistics and representativeness 12

3. Hypotheses and empirical strategy 13

3.1. Hypotheses about the pandemic and technological progress 13

3.2. Empirical strategy 15

4. Evidence on the crisis push hypothesis 16

4.1. The incidence and impact of frontier investments before, during, and due to the pandemic 16

4.2. By how much did pandemic investments increase frontier technology shares? 17

4.3. Quantifying the overall effecct of the pandemic 20

5. Evidence on the crisis shift hypothesis 21

5.1. Classifying frontier technologies by application 21

5.2. Shifts between technology applications 22

5.3. Technology shifts and firm-level employment 23

6. Conclusion 24

References 25

Appendices for online publication 39

A. Appendix figures and tables 39

B. Data 51

C. Firm-level exposure and investment patterns 60

D. A potential outcomes framework for investments due to the Covid-19 pandemic 61

Tables 33

Table 1. Characterizing firms' work equipment by technology levels 33

Table 2. Descriptive statistics 34

Table 3. Characteristics of frontier technology investments 35

Table 4. Changes in frontier technology shares by investment characteristics-office & communication equipment 36

Table 5. Actual versus counterfactual change in frontier technology share-office & communication equipment 37

Table 6. Investment decisions and employment 38

Figures 31

Figure 1. Annualized investment rates in frontier technology before and during Covid-19 31

Figure 2. Investments in office equipment by application 32

Appendix Tables 41

Table A1. Descriptive statistics (by characteristics of main investment in office & communication equipment) 41

Table A2. Decomposition of changes in frontier technology shares by characteristics of main investment 42

Table A3. Decomposition of changes in frontier technology shares by characteristics of main investment-employment-weighted 43

Table A4. Changes in frontier technology shares by investment characteristics-office & communication equipment, weighted by employment 44

Table A5. Changes in frontier technology shares by investment characteristics-production equipment 45

Table A6. Actual versus counterfactual change in frontier technology share-production equipment 46

Table A7. Applications of due-to investments and employment 47

Table A8. Firm-level Covid exposure and investments in office & communication equipment 48

Table A9. Firm-level Covid exposure and investments in office & communication equipment (employment weights) 49

Table A10. Firm-level Covid exposure and investments in production equipment 50

Table B1. Response rates 52

Table B2. Characteristics of the entire German firm population and the surveyed firms 54

Table B3. Examples of technology descriptions extracted from ChatGPT 58

Table B4. Evaluation of the classifier's performance on the test set 59

Table B5. Most frequent words by technology application 59

Appendix figures 39

Figure A1. Frontier technology shares over time 39

Figure A2. Investments in office & communication equipment by application-due-to investors only 40

Figure B1. Distribution of interview dates 53