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Title page 1

Contents 4

Acknowledgments 6

Abbreviations 7

Country codes 8

Regional classification used in this report 9

Executive summary 10

Part Ⅰ. Recent Developments, Policies, and Outlook 12

Recent Economic Developments 13

Economic Policies 31

Outlook 35

References 39

Part Ⅱ. Accelerating Growth through Entrepreneurship, Technology Adoption, and Innovation 40

Introduction 41

Drivers of productivity in the region 41

The Challenge of Innovation 45

The Business Ecosystem in ECA: Too Many Small, Low-Productivity Firms; Not Enough Large Firms; and the Stifling Effect of Incumbent State-Owned Enterprises 52

Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 65

References 70

Tables 5

Table 1.1. Europe and Central Asia Economic Growth Summary, 2021-26 14

Figures 5

Figure 1.1. Weak growth in ECA 15

Figure 1.2. ECA countries are falling behind high-income economies 15

Figure 1.3. Retail sales hold steady, supported by higher real wages 19

Figure 1.4. Remittances and credit support consumption 20

Figure 1.5. Investment spending has weakened 21

Figure 1.6. External demand has weakened 22

Figure 1.7. The current account deficit has widened modestly 25

Figure 1.8. Price pressures have returned 26

Figure 1.9. Sustained increases in labor costs are driving services inflation 27

Figure 1.10. Inflation is above target in many countries 31

Figure 1.11. Fiscal policy remains expansionary 32

Figure 1.12. Below-trend growth in 2025-26 36

Figure 1.13. Global headwinds are getting stronger 37

Figure 1.14. Rising spending pressures 38

Figure 2.1. The role of structural transformation tends to be larger in middle-income countries than in high-income countries 42

Figure 2.2. The productivity of many firms that exit is often similar to or higher than that of surviving businesses, suggesting that markets are not alway... 44

Figure 2.3. The number of patents and GDP per capita are correlated 45

Figure 2.4. High-income countries in ECA have more patents and spend more on R&D expenditure than middle-income countries 46

Figure 2.5. Relatively few ECA firms access long-term financing 47

Figure 2.6. Globally, access to finance does not appear to be associated with productivity among more productive firms 48

Figure 2.7. Globally, firms with better management quality are more likely to invest in R&D and to license technology from foreign-owned businesses 49

Figure 2.8. Middle-income countries tend to have stricter product market regulation and therefore less competition 50

Figure 2.9. Market concentration varies widely in ECA 51

Figure 2.10. Businesses in ECA benefit from the presence of highly productive firms 52

Figure 2.11. Middle-income countries have many businesses, but they are small and therefore generate less employment than larger firms 53

Figure 2.12. ECA countries have too little employment in large firms 55

Figure 2.13. Larger firms are not always more productive in ECA 56

Figure 2.14. The productivity gap between ECA countries and Germany is large 57

Figure 2.15. The performance of the top 100 firms is lower in ECA than in the European Union and the United States 58

Figure 2.16. Globally, the presence of state-owned enterprises hinders firm entry and churn 60

Figure 2.17. Globally, state-owned enterprises dampen job creation and turnover in competitive sectors 61

Figure 2.18. The average number of employees in ECA countries is smaller and the pace of job growth slower than in the United States 62

Figure 2.19. Globally, the likelihood of scaling up decreases with the age of the firm and the number of employees past about 30-50 63

Figure 2.20. Globally, young firms and start-ups account for half of gross job creation 63

Figure 2.21. Globally, large firms, start-ups, and young businesses are the main contributors to job creation 64

Boxes 5

Box 1.1. Global outlook 17

Box 1.2. Foreign direct investment in ECA 23

Box 1.3. Labor markets remain tight 28

Box 1.4. Fiscal sustainability in ECA 33

Box Figures 5

Figure B1.1.1. A soft growth outlook for the euro area, ECA’s largest trading partner 17

Figure B1.1.2. Heightened uncertainty, sticky inflation 18

Figure B1.2.1. Weaker FDI inflows after 2022 23

Figure B1.2.2. GVC participation in ECA is substantial but varied 24

Figure B1.3.1. Labor markets remain tight 28

Figure B1.3.2. Employment growth is slowing 29

Figure B1.3.3. ECA faces significant labor market challenges 29

Figure B1.3.4. Skill mismatches and limited job opportunities for youth are problems 30

Figure B1.4.1. Fiscal stances in ECA 34

Figure B1.4.2. Fiscal space in ECA 35

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