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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 3

I. Introduction 4

II. Welfare Reform and Parental Influence on Daughters and Sons 10

III. Intergenerational Quantile Correlations for Daughters and Sons 17

IV. Identification and Estimation of Intergenerational Effects 22

V. Estimates of the Intergenerational Effect of Welfare Exposure 27

VI. Potential Mechanisms and Robustness 35

A. Program Substitution 35

B. Wages and Hours 36

C. Robustness 40

VII. Conclusion 42

References 43

Online Supplement 49

Tables 15

Table 1. Intergenerational Correlations for Childhood Proportion of Time On AFDC/TANF and Early Adulthood Outcomes, by Welfare Regime 15

Table 2. Average and Quantile Marginal Effects of Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF on Early Adult Economic Outcomes, by Ranges of Childhood PTO Intensity 30

Table 3. Average and Quantile Marginal Effects of Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF on Early Adult Labor Outcomes, by Ranges of Childhood PTO Intensity 39

Figures 13

Figure 1. Trends in Childhood AFDC/TANF Years of Exposure, by Adult Cohorts 13

Figure 2. Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function for Childhood Proportion of Time On AFDC/TANF, by Welfare Regime 16

Figure 3. Intergenerational Quantile Correlations of Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure and Early Adulthood Outcomes, by Welfare Regime 19

Figure 4. Childhood and Early Adulthood Outcome Quantile-Quantile Plots 25

Figure 5. Intergenerational Average Marginal Effects for Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on Early Adulthood Outcomes 28

Figure 6. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effect: Heterogeneous Effects for Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on Early Adulthood Outcomes 31

Figure 7. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effects for Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on Early Adulthood Economic Outcomes 34

Figure 8. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effects for Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on Early Adulthood Labor Outcomes 38

Supplement Tables 52

Table S.1. Summary Statistics, by Gender and Welfare Regime 52

Supplement Figures 53

Figure S.1. Intergenerational Quantile Correlations of Childhood Proportion of Total Income from AFDC/TANF and Early Adulthood Outcomes from Ages 19 to 27,... 53

Figure S.2. Intergenerational Quantile Correlations in Welfare Participation Intensity Exploring Measures of Proportion of Time On Welfare versus Proportion of... 54

Figure S.3. Intergenerational Quantile Correlations of Childhood Proportion of Time On AFDC/TANF and Early Adulthood Proportion of Total Income from Broader Safety... 55

Figure S.4. Intergenerational Quantile Correlations of Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure and Early Adulthood Means-Tested Program Participation,... 56

Figure S.5. Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function for Childhood Exposure to AFDC/TANF or the Broader Safety Net, by Welfare Regime 57

Figure S.6. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effects for Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on Early Adulthood Means-Tested Program Participation... 58

Figure S.7. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effects for Daughters' Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on Broader Welfare Participation from Ages 19 to 27 61

Figure S.8. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effects for Sons' Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on Broader Welfare Participation from Ages 19 to 27 62

Figure S.9. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effects for Daughters' Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on Earnings-to-Needs Ratio from Ages 19 to 27 63

Figure S.10. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effects for Sons' Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on Earnings-to-Needs Ratio from Ages 19 to 27 64

Figure S.11. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effect Heterogeneity by State and Family Characteristics: Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on... 66

Figure S.12. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effect Heterogeneity by State and Family Characteristics: Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on... 67

Figure S.13. Sensitivity by Age Range of Early Adulthood for Second-Generation Outcomes: Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effects for Proportion of Time On... 68

Figure S.14. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effects for Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF on Adulthood Proportion of Total Income from Welfare and... 69

Figure S.15. Intergenerational Quantile Correlations of Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure and Early Adulthood Employment History, by Welfare Regime 71

Figure S.16. Intergenerational Quantile Marginal Effects for Proportion of Time On Childhood AFDC/TANF Exposure on Early Adulthood Employment History from Ages 19 to 27 72

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