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Title page 1
Contents 1
Abstract 3
1. Introduction 4
2. Background Literature 7
2.1. Biases in Editorial and Peer Review Decisions 7
2.2. Artificial intelligence (AI) as a screener and reviewer 10
3. Methods 12
4. Results 18
5. Theoretical Implications 26
6. Discussion and Conclusion 33
References 40
Appendix A: List of the base research papers used in creating submissions 50
Appendix B: Prompts for generating Fake AI papers 69
Appendix C: Prompts for Submission Evaluation 69
Appendix D: GPT-4o mini API Call Structure 72
Tables 42
Table 1. Predicting AI's Recommendations for Review and Acceptance at a Top-5 Economics Journal: Ordinary Least Squares 42
Table 2. Predicting AI's Recommendations for Different Academic Success Outcomes: Ordinary Least Squares 48
Figures 44
Figure 1. Predicted "Top 5 Acceptance Score" scores by authors' characteristics across publication quality categories. 95% confidence intervals based... 44
Figure 2. Predicted probabilities for the outcomes 'Accept/Very Minor Revision,' 'Major/Minor Revision,' and 'Reject/Reject & Resubmit' in the Top-5 Review... 45
Figure 3. Predicted probabilities for the outcomes 'Reject/Reject & Resubmit' and 'Accept/Very Minor Revision' in the Top-5 Review Recommendation Score... 46
Appendix Tables 61
Table 1A. Description Statistics 61
Table 2A. Pairwise Correlations of Independent Variables 62
Table 3A. Predicting AI's Recommendations for Review and Acceptance at a Top-5 Economics Journal: Ordinary Least Squares with Submission Fixed Effects 63
Table 4A. Predicting Top 5 Recommend Accepting by Publication Quality: Ordinary Least Squares 64
Table 5A. Predicting Top 5 Recommendation Categories With and Without Added Criteria: Ordered Logit 65
Table 6A. Multiple Hypothesis Testing: standard and Young p-values 67
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