표제지
목차
Abstract 12
I. 서론 13
II. 전력공급지장비용 이론 15
1. 공급지장비용 정의 및 종류 15
2. 공급지장비용의 제반 특성 18
1) 공급지장비용과 한계공급지장비용 18
2) 공급지장비용에 영향을 미치는 요소 22
3. 공급지장비용 평가의 필요성 24
1) 기술적 측면 24
2) 사회적 측면 24
3) 정책적 측면 24
4) 국가기술개발 측면 25
4. 공급지장비용 적용의 필요성 25
5. 공급지장비용의 역할 28
III. 전력공급지장비용 추정 방법 30
1. 거시적인 접근방법 31
2. 미시적인 접근방법 32
1) 공급지장비 단가 추정 방법 33
3. 해석적인 접근방법 37
1) 공급지장비 단가 추정 방법 38
4. 공급지장비 추정 방법 비교 분석 41
IV. 국내외 전력공급지장비용 추정 현황 43
1. 국내 공급지장비용 연구 현황 43
2. 국외 공급지장비용 연구 현황 47
1) 국외의 공급지장비 연구 현황 47
2) 국가별 공급지장비용 연구 추이 50
3. 국내 공급지장비용 추정 사례 62
4. 국외 공급지장비용 추정 사례 67
V. 사례 연구 69
1. 국내 공급지장비단가 추정 69
1) 거시적 접근법에 의한 국내 공급지장비단가 추정 결과 69
2) 과거 국내총생산과 전력수요량 자료 회귀분석 71
3) 거시적인 접근방법을 이용한 미래의 공급지장비단가 추정 79
2. 지역별 공급지장비단가 추정 79
3. 용도별 공급지장비단가 추정 결과 112
4. 국가별 공급지장비단가 추정 결과 120
VI. 결론 126
참고문헌 128
Table 1. Role of the outage cost in grid expansion planning 28
Table 2. Comparative analysis on methods for the outage cost assessment 42
Table 3. A case of outage cost assessment by using GDP 45
Table 4. Outage cost per average kilowatt according to interruption duration on industrial customer 46
Table 5. Trend of outage cost by using GDP 50
Table 6. Results of outage cost assessment by the category of industry 51
Table 7. Results of outage cost assessment considering dependence on power by the category of industry 52
Table 8. Outage cost for the category of industry(1980) 54
Table 9. Classification of time period for occurrence of interruption in residential customer 55
Table 10. Outage cost of residential customer 56
Table 11. Trend of outage cost in Sweden 56
Table 12. Trend of outage cost in England 58
Table 13. Trend of outage cost in France 59
Table 14. Outage cost of industrial sector in USA and Canada 60
Table 15. Outage cost of commercial sector in USA and Canada 60
Table 16. The case of outage cost estimation in Korea 63
Table 17. Analysis for interruption damage in A industrial corporation 64
Table 18. Outage cost assessment of the countries of the world 68
Table 19. The results of IEAR estimation by macro approach 69
Table 20. The coefficient of determination at each order of regression analysis(2005-2009) 74
Table 21. GDP estimation from 2005 to 2009 years using regression analysis 75
Table 22. Error rate of estimation at each order(2005-2009) 75
Table 23. The coefficient of determination at each order of regression analysis(2000-2009) 76
Table 24. GDP estimation from 2000 to 20009 years using regression analysis 77
Table 25. Error rate of estimation at each order(2000-2009) 78
Table 26. IEAR estimation from 2010 to 2017 and 2022 79
Table 27. Regional outage cost estimation from 1988 to 2008 years by macro approach 80
Table 28. Outage cost estimation in Seoul 81
Table 29. Outage cost estimation in Busan 83
Table 30. Outage cost estimation in Daegu 85
Table 31. Outage cost estimation in Incheon 87
Table 32. Outage cost estimation in Gwangju 89
Table 33. Outage cost estimation in Daejun 91
Table 34. Outage cost estimation in Gyeonggi-do 93
Table 35. Outage cost estimation in Gangwon-do 95
Table 36. Outage cost estimation in Chungcheongbuk-do 97
Table 37. Outage cost estimation in Chungcheongnam-do 99
Table 38. Outage cost estimation in Jeollabuk-do 101
Table 39. Outage cost estimation in Jeollanam-do 103
Table 40. Outage cost estimation in Gyeongsangbuk-do 105
Table 41. Outage cost estimation in Gyeongsangnam-do 107
Table 42. Outage cost estimation in Jeju 109
Table 43. Coefficient of determination between each GRDP and EES 111
Table 44. Standard table of classification by a use of EES 112
Table 45. Classification of GDP by economic activity 113
Table 46. The results of IEAR estimation by a use of EES 114
Table 47. The results of IEAR estimation of residential customer 115
Table 48. The results of IEAR estimation of public customer 116
Table 49. The results of IEAR estimation of service industry 117
Table 50. The results of IEAR estimation of agriculture, forestry and fishery 118
Table 51. The results of IEAR estimation of mining industry 119
Table 52. The results of IEAR estimation of manufacturing industry 120
Table 53. The results of IEAR estimation by national 121
Table 54. The results of IEAR estimation in Korea (1996-2007) 122
Table 55. The results of IEAR estimation in Japan (1996-2007) 122
Table 56. The results of IEAR estimation in USA (1996-2007) 123
Table 57. The results of IEAR estimation in Canada (1996-2007) 123
Table 58. The results of IEAR estimation in France (1996-1998) 124
Table 59. The results of IEAR estimation in Germany (1996-2007) 124
Table 60. The results of IEAR estimation in England (1996-2007) 125
Table 61. The results of IEAR estimation in Italy (1996-2007) 125
Fig. 1. Kinds of the outages 15
Fig. 2. Classification of the outage cost 16
Fig. 3. Relations of total costs and reliability level 19
Fig. 4. Relations of the marginal costs and reliability level 21
Fig. 5. The effects of a change of marginal outage cost on optimal level determination of reliability 21
Fig. 6. The effects of a change of marginal utility cost on optimal level determination of reliability 22
Fig. 7. Methods for the outage cost assessment 30
Fig. 8. Concept of macro approach 31
Fig. 9. Flow chart of micro approach 37
Fig. 10. Flow chart of analysis approach 37
Fig. 11. Marginal outage cost function 38
Fig. 12. Schematic diagram of the concept for outage calculation at load points 41
Fig. 13. Changes of production level and outage cost caused by interruption 52
Fig. 14. Outage cost between 0-2hours in industrial customer(Sweden, 1980) 57
Fig. 15. Outage cost between 2-8hours in industrial customer(Sweden, 1980) 57
Fig. 16. Relations between outage cost and outage duration according to customer types 61
Fig. 17. Trend of outage cost of major cities 64
Fig. 18. Trend of regional outage cost 65
Fig. 19 Trend of outage cost classified by customer types 65
Fig. 20. A comparison of outage cost for residential sector with other countries 66
Fig. 21. A comparison of outage cost for commercial sector with other countries 67
Fig. 22. The change of annual EES and GDP 70
Fig. 23. The change of annual IEAR 71
Fig. 24. The distribution model of GDP and EES 73
Fig. 25. Error rate of estimation at each order 76
Fig. 26. Error rate of estimation at each order(2000-2009) 78
Fig. 27. The change of annual IEAR in Seoul 82
Fig. 28. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Seoul 82
Fig. 29. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Seoul 83
Fig. 30. The change of annual IEAR in Busan 84
Fig. 31. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Busan 84
Fig. 32. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Busan 85
Fig. 33. The change of annual IEAR in Daegu 86
Fig. 34. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Daegu 86
Fig. 35. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Daegu 87
Fig. 36. The change of annual IEAR in Incheon 88
Fig. 37. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Incheon 88
Fig. 38. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Incheon 89
Fig. 39. The change of annual IEAR in Gwangju 90
Fig. 40. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Gwangju 90
Fig. 41. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Gwangju 91
Fig. 42. The change of annual IEAR in Daejeon 92
Fig. 43. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Daejeon 92
Fig. 44. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Daejeon 93
Fig. 45. The change of annual IEAR in Gyeonggi-do 94
Fig. 46. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Gyeonggi-do 94
Fig. 47. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Gyeonggi-do 95
Fig. 48. The change of annual IEAR in Gangwon-do 96
Fig. 49. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Gangwon-do 96
Fig. 50. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Gangwon-do 97
Fig. 51. The change of annual IEAR in Chungcheongbuk-do 98
Fig. 52. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Chungcheongbuk-do 98
Fig. 53 Trend line of EES and GRDP in Chungcheongbuk-do 99
Fig. 54. The change of annual IEAR in Chungcheongnam-do 100
Fig. 55. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Chungcheongnam-do 100
Fig. 56. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Chungcheongnam-do 101
Fig. 57. The change of annual IEAR in Jeollabuk-do 102
Fig. 58. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Jeollabuk-do 102
Fig. 59. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Jeollabuk-do 103
Fig. 60. The change of annual IEAR in Jeollanam-do 104
Fig. 61. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Jeollanam-do 104
Fig. 62. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Jeollanam-do 105
Fig. 63. The change of annual IEAR in Gyeongsangbuk-do 106
Fig. 64. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Gyeongsangbuk-do 106
Fig. 65. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Gyeongsangbuk-do 107
Fig. 66. The change of annual IEAR in Gyeongsangnam-do 108
Fig. 67. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Gyeongsangnam-do 108
Fig. 68. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Gyeongsangnam-do 109
Fig. 69. The change of annual IEAR in Jeju 110
Fig. 70. The change of annual EES and GRDP in Jeju 110
Fig. 71. Trend line of EES and GRDP in Jeju 111
Fig. 72. The change of annual IEAR by a use of EES 115